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MAIN PAGE > Journal "Historical informatics" > Rubric "Quantitative history"
Quantitative history
Kuzmin Y.V. - Science and Technology Level in Russia during the First World War: the Example of Aircraft Industry (Database Statistical Analysis) pp. 1-21


Abstract: The article studies the increase of aircraft speed during 1913-1918 in the main countries participating in the First World War: Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Russia, the USA and France. It is the first time when the average speed of aircraft has been calculated. This involved the collection of data on the production of aircrafts by types and years. A separate comparison was made for combat planes and fighters - a class for which speed is of particular importance.The author has specified data on the amount of planes manufactured within the period understudy as well. He has collected data on airplane production in 1913-1918 and their performance within a database of 2450 records. It is shown that in 1913 the average plane speeds in six countries mentioned above were similar, but by the end of the war the allies (Great Britain, France and Italy) took the lead while Germany and especially Russia lagged behind. In Germany the lag occurred in 1917-1918 and in Russia mainly in the first two years of the war rather than during those revolutionary years. The author concludes that this lag is caused by the increasing share of locally manufactured planes in Russian aircraft industry that reached 50% in 1917-1918.
Muraveva A. - Event Study Analysis of Political and Economical Factors Influencing Bank Notes Exchange Rate Dynamics in the First Third of the 19th c. pp. 1-20


Abstract: The article studies Russian ruble bank notes dynamics in the first half of the 19th century. In particular, it addresses political and economical factors for this dynamics and empirically evaluates the influence of important military, political and economical events on bank notes exchange rate. The author analyzes the direction and the intensity of this influence during the period which is up to three months beginning with the initial start of these factors. To form time series of the bank notes exchange rate from 1800 to 1839 the article examines Moskovskie Vedomosti that published Moscow stock exchange rates schedules as well as Sankt-Peterburzhskie Vedomosti and Kommercheskaya Gazeta which published Saint Petersburg stock exchange rates schedules. Time series analysis of daily exchange rates has shown that they were more sensitive to endogenous and economical events rather than exogenous and political ones. The study has found out that an exchange rate is more sensitive to internal political and economical reasons rather than external political and political ones. For instance, the sensitivity to cholera was stronger than that to wars. One sees that stock exchange demonstrated more sensitivity to events hindering foreign trade and uncertainty as far as foreign policy is concerned. In addition, it has been found out that Moscow exchange rate was much more sensitive than Saint Petersburg one. However, the later demonstrated longer sensitivity to events..
Vorobeva E.E. - 1953 Amnesty According to GULAG Statistics: Its Structure and Dynamics pp. 1-10


Abstract: The article studies the dynamics of 1953 amnesty and analyzes its structural characteristics. The 1953 amnesty was the largest in the entire history of the Soviet penitentiary system. Therefore, it is of particular interest to know the stages of the prisoners’ release process and the way such a large-scale problem could be solved. The author focuses on the structure of prisoners to be released as well as the structural changes of prisoners caused by the amnesty and their impact on the system as a whole. Despite a large number of domestic and foreign studies addressing the GULAG, the process of amnesty implementation has not been studied as it is yet. The author traces the implementation of the USSR Supreme Soviet Presidium Decree dated 03.27.1953 "On amnesty." The methodological basis for the study is statistical analysis of data on the implementation of the release plan. The result of the study is the conclusion that the 1953 amnesty was a turning point in the functioning of the USSR camp system. However, its process was uneven and accompanied by a number of difficulties caused by the need to carry out serious control and accounting work and involve additional sources to make decisions on the release of individual prisoners.
Garskova I.M., Zueva V.A. - Multidimensional Fuzzy Classification in Historical and Typological Studies: Development and Test of a New Software pp. 6-26


Abstract: The current study develops a new version of the multidimensional fuzzy classification program for Windows on the basis of FuzzyClass algorithm created by the Department of Historical Information Science of Moscow State University. The previous version of the program (FuzzyClass1) was created over 30 years ago and is still widely used in historical and typological studies because fuzzy classification methods are not yet available in most standard statistical packages. The need for a new version of the program is caused by the fact that FuzzyClass1 was a DOS program and can hardly be adjusted to Windows, Mac, etc. Moreover, there is a need to make it more simple, friendly, accessible to a wide range of students and researchers. The new program was created by means of the VBA (VisualBasicforApplications) for MS Excel. The program is tested and evaluated on the basis of Russian economic history statistical sources earlier addressed to by Russian scholars. The adjustment has demonstrated similar results to previous studies which considered cadastres (pistsovye knigi) of Vorotynskiy Uezd in the 17th century. The authors have also compared the results of the new program with the results gained when typology of the European Russia guberniyas at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries was carried out with the use of fuzzy classification algorithms. The comparison has demonstrated qualitatively similar results and more precise typology through FuzzyClass algorithms. Thus, the program created confirms previous results and provides new opportunities for typological research in history.
Garskova I.M. - Quantitative History in 1960s 1980s in the USSR and its Role in the Development of Historical Information Science pp. 7-24


Abstract: This year marks the 50th anniversary of the institutionalization of domestic quantitative history which began with the creation in 1968 under the leadership of I.D. Kovalchenko of the Commission on the Application of Mathematical Methods and Computers in Historical Research at the Branch of History of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Today it is necessary to once again emphasize the important role that the quantitative history has played in the development of not only historical information science, but other areas of scientific history in our country as well. The article analyzes those features of the national school of quantitative history which ensured its relevance and interaction with other interdisciplinary areas in historical research, primarily with historical information science, and which remain relevant today. The ongoing development of the Russian model of historical information science against the backdrop of the crisis of “historical computing” in the West confirms the thesis about the balance of the analytical and informational components of the Russian model which is largely ensured by interaction with quantitative history and tradition of testing new methods and technologies for processing and analyzing information of historical sources in historical research for producing meaningful results.
Frenkel O.I. - The Branch Network of the State Bank of the Russian Empire in 1860s-1880s: Statistical and GIS Analysis pp. 15-37


Abstract: The article studies the State Bank of the Russian Empire in its early period in 1860s – 1880s. The bank is studied as an example of government banks of the 17th-20th centuries that were gradually evolving into a full value central bank in the second half of the 19th century. The branch network statistics and gross loans in regions as well as the average loan rate calculation method are studied. Particular attention is paid to the following State Bank’s functions. Firstly, it is the key role in short terms credit system development in Russia or modern banking associated with commercial banks because the State Bank is the biggest commercial multibranch bank in the second half of the 19th century. Secondly, it is the credit function of the State Bank which aspects are loan (non-cash) issue, loans to private banks and the function of lender of last resort for banks as well as firms and companies that is characteristic of the period of central bank development. Thirdly, it is the State Bank’s core role within the frames of the developing national payment system. Fourthly, it is the public debt management, in particular, the State Bank’s role in placement of government securities with the help of credit instruments. These functions of the main commercial bank of the country had an important integrating impact on regional financial markets of the Russian Empire in the second half of the 19th century. In this article the State Bank’s functions are studied on the basis of statistical sources. The source for the State Bank’s statistics is annual reports which have not been systematically analyzed especially as far as regional aspect is concerned. Loan rate analysis techniques have not been tested for these data. That is why the article emphasizes source studies aspects of the State Bank’s regional statistics. GIS analysis is a special part of the paper. As far as regions are concerned, the branches of the early State Bank were located in the biggest financial centers (“anchor points” that provided for local financial markets’ development) as well as agricultural export zones in the central and southern parts of European Russia. As a result, new ways to study the early State Bank begin to take shape. These are integration of financial markets, specific character of bookkeeping at branches, difference between official and real loan rates. 
Kuzmin Y.V. - Evolution of Piston-Engine Fighter Aircrafts: Cluster Analysis to Study the History of Technology. Part 2 pp. 24-78


Abstract: The article carries out cluster analysis of serial piston-engine fighters. 672 modifications built in 26 countries from 1913 to 1951 are taken into account. Maximum speed, wing load, power load and weight ratio are chosen as coordinates. Clustering reveals pioneering design: the earliest models in each cluster. One can also measure the dynamics of ideas lifetime that is the period when similar aircrafts (those within one cluster) were manufactured following the same methodology. The frequency new clusters emerged demonstrates the speed of technological progress. The author has found the turning points of development. These are 1930 and 1935. Until 1930 flight characteristics were increasing both due to an increase in thrust-to-weight ratio and an increase of wing load. Later the thrust-to-weight ratio remains practically unchanged. In 1935 the first aircraft appeared from three of the 19 clusters at once. Among them are the little-known Yugoslav fighter Ikarus IK-2 and the Soviet I-16 Type 5. The change of leading countries and the lifetime of ideas have been studied as well. The interval between the manufacture of the first and the last model, related to the cluster, corresponds to the time period when designers followed the same approach when designing an aircraft. Between wars, this interval exceeded 10 years whereas during rapid development periods it was 5-6 years shorter.
Kuzmin Y.V. - Manufacture of Airplanes in 1931-945 by World War II Countries: What War Was Expected? pp. 27-57


Abstract: The author has created a database containing information about airplanes produced in the 20th century. There are over 7000 records about airplane manufacture during 1931-1945 in six leading countries. It is the first time when data about airplane manufacture in the USA, the USSR, the British Empire, France, Germany and Japan during this period are presented. They are divided into three five-year periods as far as the purpose of airplanes is concerned. These are 1931-1935, 1936-1940 and 1941-1945. The author has analyzed the difference in the structure and the speed of airplane manufacture and assumed the reason for these differences related to military policy and political goals of the state as well. The result is that the structures of airplane manufacture in the 1930s were similar in the countries that later became allies and differed from the countries that later became Axis members. This is true as far as the ratio of fighters to attack aircrafts and bomber aircrafts is concerned.
Shchinova A.K. - Moscow and Saint Petersburg Censuses at the Turn of the 20th Century as Sources for Labor History Studies pp. 28-47


Abstract: The article studies urban censuses taken in Moscow and Saint Petersburg at the turn of the 20th century as important sources for labor history studies (a cross-disciplinary field of research). The article addresses aggregated data of urban censuses taken in Saint Petersburg in 1881, 1890, 1900 and 1910 and in Moscow in 1882, 1902 and 1912 which provide occupational data. The research subject is the structural content of census occupational tables. When analyzing Moscow and Saint Petersburg censuses, the comparative-historical method is used to identify similar and unique data of historical sources. Despite numerous studies carried out by Russian and foreign scholars addressing pre-revolutionary censuses, one of the aspects of the sources (that is temporal occupational distribution of males and females in Moscow and Saint Petersburg) is still poorly studied. The article briefly describes the creation of each census, analyzes the way occupational data were registered and shows changes in the census program of Saint Petersburg and Moscow from 1881 to 1912. One can see different formation of Moscow occupational groups. Whereas an industry branch prevailed in 1882, social status of the worker dominated 1902 and 1912 censuses. In Saint Petersburg the distribution was related to an industry branch accompanied by a production status. The author considers census structure studies important for comparing temporal data and further analysis of labor activity in Moscow and Saint Petersburg presented in the sources understudy.   
Kartashova M. - Home Crafts before the Russian Empires Fall (Three Volosts of Nizhegorodskaya Guberniya Data) pp. 31-42


Abstract: The article studies home crafts as an element of peasant economy within the framework of their general state before the Russian Empire’s fall in 1917. The author examines two main aspects. These are the number of home crafts in three volosts of Nizhegorodskaya Guberniya in 1889 and 1917 as well as the use of uezd 1917 census data collations to study the state of home crafts. Emphasis is laid on 1917 census data providing for home crafts state analysis on the basis of primary data. The author statistically analyzes the state of home crafts in three volosts (micro analysis) and cartographically analyzes the state of home crafts in the Russian Empire considering uezd 1917 census data collations (macro analysis). The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, by the summer of 1917 not all home crafts but male ones (especially metalwork) had been in depression. Secondly, the uezd 1917 census data are a non-reliable source to study home crafts. The main author’s contribution is the introduction of 1917 census primary data (household cards for three volosts of Nizhegorodskaya Guberniya) into scientific discourse. The research novelty is the comparison of home crafts state within 28 year period from 1889 to 1917 that provided for portraying the state of home crafts in the last year of the Russian Empire.
Mishina E. - Reconstruction of the Social Portrait of the Repressed to Altai and Oyrotskaya Avtonomnaya Oblast in 1935-1937: Comparative Statistical Analysis pp. 33-51


Abstract: The article studies social characteristics of the repressed in Altai and Oyrotskaya Avtonomnaya Oblast from December 1934 to the Big Terror period in June 1937. The goal is to reconstruct the social portrait of the repressed, choose and analyze social and demographical marks influencing the sentence. The author analyses dynamics of repressions in two regions throughout the period understudy, finds similar and distinctive features in repressive politics. The sources of the study are the database of the International Memorial and investigative cases of the Altai Krai. To meet the goal the author has employed methods and technologies of database creation, statistical methods (a sample method, contingency tables), a general historical method (comparative-historical one). The analyses demonstrated similar features of the Altai repressive politics with that in Oyrotskaya Avtonomnaya Oblast. Repressive campaigns were similar in the whole, but had some regional peculiarities. National factor was dominating in Oyrotskaya Avtonomnaya Oblast both in respect to the natives (the Altaians, the Telengits) and “other nationalities” (the Russians). In general, the author notes similarity of reconstructed social portraits of the repressed in Altai and Oyrotskaya Avtonomnaya Oblast.
Karchaeva T.G., Kizhner I.A., Gergilev D.N. - Participation of Women in Local and Regional Soviets in Eastern Siberia from 1921 to 1936: Statistical Sources Analysis pp. 34-54


Abstract: The article studies how women were becoming participants of the social and political life in the first soviet decades thus proving the socialistic policy to eliminate the class and sex inequality widely spread at the beginning of the 20th century. The article explores the dynamics of Eastern Siberian women’s participation in local Soviets in Russia from 1921 to 1936, their social composition, professionalism and work ethics. To analyze raw data the authors use database technology and statistical methods. Computer technologies provided for processing mass historical sources: party censuses, service records and inquiry forms of civil servants. The authors conclude that the number of women fluctuated between 25% and 33% of the deputies and delegates to the local and regional Soviets (public councils), they lacked proper professional experience and education (about 80% had only primary school education), had peasant or labor class background and could not boast high level of work ethics. Moreover, many women were passive deputies without any visible demonstration of the service. Statistical analysis has demonstrated that women with middle professional education and higher education had higher positions in executive committees of Soviets. They were few in number but they contributed a lot to the developing new administration and government.
Mazur L.N., Brodskaya L.I. - Transformation of the Peasant Family Life Cycle in the Middle Urals in Demographical Transition Circumstances pp. 37-61


Abstract: The article examines the transformation of the life cycle of a peasant family in Russia in the 20th century in demographical transition circumstances aggravated by multiple demographical catastrophes. The information basis of the study is databases formed during the analysis of budget surveys of peasant farms in the Middle Urals in 1928/1929 and 1963. Supplemented by information from other sources (materials from the population censuses of 1926, 1939 and 1959), these data allowed the authors to compare the family structure of the rural population of the Urals in the 1920s and the 1960s (the initial and the final stage of the demographical transition) and characterize its dynamics (the life cycle). Whereas in a traditional society the life cycle of a peasant family was largely determined by the dynamics of the peasant economy development, the urbanized society witnesses two standards of the family (two-parent/single parent one) with the corresponding types of the life cycle: the nuclear family (the reference version) and the incomplete family (the reduced version). The consequences of the Soviet modernization contributed to the transformation of fragmented forms of the family into a typical variant of the family landscape not only in urban but also in rural areas. Modeling and analysis of the peasant family life cycle at the micro level made it possible to identify the mechanisms of the peasant family adaptation to external and internal challenges that are characteristic of different stages of the demographic transition.
Mazur L.N., Brodskaya L.I. - The Use of Historical and Typological Method to Study Families in the Early Soviet Period pp. 43-77


Abstract: The article describes the methodology for analyzing the primary materials of the 1922 All-Russian Census of the RCP (B) members that was based on the use of historical and typological method. The article is composed of three logical blocks. The first section deals with the essence of the historical and typological method, its types and problems solved. The second section characterizes sociological and demographic typologies of families and their dependence on the research object, i.e. its local and temporal aspects and research goals. The third section reveals the technique for studying the party census data. The key goal of the article is to show the analytical potential of historical typology, consider the modes of the method application (multidimensional analysis methods included) and substantiate the efficiency of its use to study nominative sources organized within a database. The authors implemented a combination of the deductive and the inductive approaches to form a typology that was based on the use of mathematical and statistical methods. The typological method allows us to extrapolate the results of the study of the target array (party families) to the entire early Soviet society of the early 1920s and trace the influence of ideological factor on historical and demographic processes
Didenko D.V., Grineva N.V. - Soviet Economic Growth through the Interstate Prism: the Role of Research Funding pp. 48-65


Abstract: The article estimates economic growth factors in the late USSR: research and development (R&D) expenditures along with physical and human capital accumulation as well as institutional and technological dynamics. The USSR results are compared with those of a sample of reference countries with the use of collected statistical data and estimates in the literature and data sets. Developing theoretical ideas by Romer (1990) the authors test a model of the production function which includes R&D expenditures as a source of endogenous growth. To indirectly characterize institutional and general technological dynamics they choose the relevant proxy indicators. The use of these variables within the modified production function is the principal methodological contribution of this research related to the analysis of historical variations of industrial economy development. The model mostly fits Japanese data and somewhat less data on other industrialized countries. The main USSR variables are statistically significant for the period of 1955-1990, but not for the period of 1965-1990. The research findings support the hypothesis that in the mid 1950s – early 1960s Soviet economy had certain prerequisites for transition to endogenous growth model based on R&D and technologies which turned out mostly unrealized. The authors have not found enough evidence to confirm the hypothesis of a decisive role of institutional factors influencing the slowdown growth in the USSR. 
Fileva E. - 1882 Moscow Census as a Source on Housing Problem Study pp. 52-60


Abstract: The article studies the way quantitative methods are employed to handle a housing problem in Moscow in the late 19th early 20th centuries on the basis of 1882 census. The census collected a lot of data covering each part of the city. These are the number of dwellers in apartments with similar number of rooms, the number of apartments with different rooms, the number of stories in residential buildings, water supply and toilet rooms in apartments, the number of apartments used for industrial purposes, etc. The census data provide for classifying apartments as far as the number of room dwellers is concerned. To group the city parts with different share of dwellers per an apartment and a room cluster analysis has been employed. Census data provide for evaluating housing conditions by means of a precise parameter that is dwellers’ density in a room as well as correlating dwellers’ density, the number of stories and rooms and geographical location in a city with each other. Such data allow for comparing housing facilities in different city parts as well.
Chernenko D.A. - Urban Economy of Orlovskaya and Tambovskaya Guberniyas in the Late 18th-Early 19th Centuries (General Land Survey Data) pp. 62-79


Abstract: The article poses a problem of a multi-style character of the urban economy in Russia in the late 18th - early 19th centuries and its reflection in the General Land Survey taken in European Russia at that period. These are the Economic Comments to the General Land Survey which recorded the main parameters of the urban economy within the framework of the unified description program that provide for comparing its agrarian, commercial and industrial components. The study uses the materials of the Economic Comments on 26 cities of two Black Earth Region Guberniyas of Russia – Orlovskaya and Tambovskaya ones. The specificity of the region is determined by its relatively late development and the formation of the urban network within the framework of large defensive projects of the Moscow state. Statistical analysis and GIS-mapping of the Comments data allowed one to come to the following conclusions. This region is commonly characterized by the formation of large agricultural complexes with large (more than 5 thousand desyatins) areas of arable and hay fields surrounding the cities during the General Land Survey. This circumstance significantly increased the area of the city within the framework of the "general urban boundary", but to a much lesser extent influenced the total size of its population. The industry of the cities of the region consisted almost exclusively of small "plants" while big manufacturing production was at its early stage of development and was not dependent on the processes of concentration of small enterprises in individual cities. The function of the cities of the region as centers of trade was much more pronounced. Fairs and/ or weekly auctions were held in most of them. The results of the Economic Comments statistics correlation analysis allow one to assume that further development of the Black Earth Region cities was mainly related to commercial and industrial branches of their economy.
Kuzmin Y.V. - The Ratio of Output and R&D Effectiveness in Aircraft Industry in the 20th Century. Database Statistical Analysis pp. 63-87


Abstract: The article proposes to estimate the effectiveness of R&D in aircraft industry by new modifications of aircrafts emerging each year. This method is compared with other ones such as those by financial costs, labor costs and bibliometric methods. The advantages and disadvantages of this method are described. The author suggests a technique to check the completeness of raw data based on the use of an independent statistical sampling from the same general set. The author is the first to describe the dynamics of new aircraft modifications creation in the 20th century and compares this graph with that of aircraft manufacture constructed earlier by him. The research method is the statistical analysis of data on the R&D and aircraft manufacture collected by the author within a relational database. It was found that the correlation of R&D and production graphs was disrupted as early as 1910 and completely disappeared after 1930, that the huge increase in aircraft manufacture during the Second World War did not lead to an increase of new modifications and that the R&D graph is more rigid than the manufacture one responding weakly both to economic growth and recession.
Kuzmin Y.V. - Evolution of Fighter Aircrafts in the interwar Years: Cluster Analysis in History of Engineering pp. 66-130


Abstract: The article carries out cluster analysis of piston-engine fighters designed between 1920 and 1944 and takes into account more than 500 modifications of aircrafts that were serially manufactured in 18 countries. The author divides the period understudy into five-year segments and studies designs as far as such parameters as maximum speed, wing load and power load are concerned. Correlations of these variables are considered as well and special attention is paid to the correct distance determination. The article demonstrates dynamics of the main fighter characteristics between the world wars. It was found out that the main factor in the growth of fighter speed in 1920-1944 was the wing load related to modernization of profiles, quality and mechanization of the wing rather than growth of engine power of aircrafts. One can see repeating models of development in each period. These are a “power” approach that used new technologies “straightforwardly”, for instance, by totally increasing power loading, and a complex approach that provided for much better results. The author has revealed the leadership of the British aerodynamic school in 1920-1940 and has numerically demonstrated the change in the focus of the US design school from a "powerful engine - light aircraft" method to a "perfect aerodynamics - long flight range" method. He has shown the place of the Soviet design school as well. It has been found out that the last (during this period) sharp increase of wing load was not performed in the USSR and Japan. This led to rather low speed of fighters in these countries during the Second World War. The author discusses the reasons for this as well.
Natkhov T.V., Vasilenok N. - Infant Mortality in Post-Reform Russia: Dynamics, Regional Differences and the Role of Traditional Norms pp. 71-88


Abstract: The article analyzes dynamics and regional differences in infant mortality in the post-reform Russian Empire. Based on extensive statistical, ethnographic and medical sources, the authors have shown that the infant mortality rate depended primarily on traditional practices of infant feeding and caring rather than on income, literacy or access to medicine. High infant mortality rate among the Great Russian population (compared with other ethnic and religious groups) was primarily due to the early stop of breastfeeding and solid food feeding. The latter sometimes began in the first days of baby’s life. The authors’ conclusions are consistent with the results of similar studies carried out in European demographic history and show that the use of infant mortality as an indicator of the population living standard in agricultural societies cannot always be justified. Consequently, it is unreasonable to draw conclusions about the stagnation of living standards in pre-revolutionary Russia on the basis of the infant mortality rate.
Saltseva A.D. - Reconstruction of the Social Profile of the Red Terror Political Prisoners on the Basis of Data Provided by the Political Prisoners Aid Society Moscow Political Red Cross (1918-1922): Database Analysis. pp. 78-93


Abstract: The article analyses prosopographic database developed on the basis of Political Prisoners Aid Society “Moscow Political Red Cross”. The source base of the database is census papers of political prisoners collected by the MPRC legal department stored in the Russian Federation State Archive, Fund -8419. Most of them are introduced into scientific turnover for the first time. Reconstruction of the social portrait of political prisoners demonstrated the prevalence of literate people among them compared to the distribution of the literacy level in the country population in general. Occupational dominants have been found out. For instance, workers and clerks turned out to be prevailing among political prisoners while military men, civil servants and professionals were few in number. The number of peasants was small. These were mainly “hostages”or those arrested for taking part in peasants’ uprisings. It was also found out that most of political prisoners changed their occupation after revolution. The majority of political prisoners were Russians. It is no surprise that the share of women turned out to be small thus being in line with the supposition about bigger activity of males in political events of the time. The analysis demonstrated that political prisoners were primarily young males aged to 35. Most of the arrested had dependants. Over a half of political prisoners suffered from various diseases.
Muraveva A. - Statistical Analysis of Saint-Petersburg Exchange Rate Dynamics in Relation to the Leading European Financial Centers in 1801-1839 pp. 88-99


Abstract: The article studies the monetary policy of the Russian state in the second half of the 18th - the first half of the 19th centuries, in particular, the dynamics of exchange rates. The exchange rate is actually the currency rate and demonstrates the purchasing power of a country’s money in relation to that in another country. On the basis of primary data of the Russian press, the author has collected data on quotes for the subsequent statistical analysis and used correlation matrices and regression models to identify factors that influenced the analysis as well as internal dependencies. The main research method is the statistical one accompanied by the inductive approach. The issue of the Russian exchange rate dynamics in the early 19th century has not been properly studies in historiography. The article demonstrates that exchange rates do not depend much on the volume of international trade or, more precisely, on the balance of foreign trade. Exchange rates have weak correlation with the foreign trade balance and statistically insignificant one with the balance of trade with particular countries. The explanatory power of regression models with economical characteristics being independent factors has R² not more than 20-25 %. It must be noted that no reliable dependence of exchange rates on wheat export from Russia has been found while their dependence on gold import was statistically significant as far as Amsterdam and Hamburg are concerned (at the same time the correlation of gold import with wheat export is significant and positive).
Kuzmin Y.V. - USSR Aircraft Industry Decrease in the 1980s: Database Statistical Analysis pp. 106-146


Abstract: The article demonstrates that the first half of the 1980s faced the aircraft industry decrease both in the USSR and around the world which was rapid, simultaneous and significant and affected the manufacture of both civilian and military airplanes. The manufacture of airplanes in the second half of the 1980s, up to 1990, was somewhat constant both in the USSR and the rest of the world. The decline in the USSR occurred not during the “perestroika”, but earlier, during the “late stagnation” period. The calculations have been carried out on the basis of data collected by the author. Data from over 100 sources were collected in a database including more than 700 records about the airplane manufacture in the USSR in the 1976-1990s. Unlike the USSR as a whole and most other countries of the world, there was no decrease of airplane manufacture in COMECON countries (Czechoslovakia, Poland and Romania) as well as Georgia and Uzbekistan. The author speculates about the reasons of this fact.
Kiryanov I.K., Kornienko S.I., Senina A.V. - Deputy Corps of the State Duma in the Late Period of the Russian Empire: from Source Texts to Computer Methods of Statistical Analysis pp. 118-127


Abstract: The article describes the ways to organize and systematize information about the deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Empire on the basis of the “Parliamentary History of Late Imperial Russia” portal with the goal to transform information sources into quantitative data and carry out their subsequent analysis using mathematical methods. One of the areas to study the deputy corps based on a scientific and educational Internet portal (“The Parliamentary History of Late Imperial Russia”) was projects related to obtaining socio-cultural portraits of parliamentarians and studying their parliamentary activities. The paper proposes a method to estimate parliamentary activity by means of a special coefficient. The coefficient allows estimating the activity of deputies at an individual and a group level, as well as at the level of sessions or convocations of parliament and reflects the process of its development. A set of statistical analysis methods such as descriptive statistics, correlation and cluster analysis and facet classification provides for associating parliamentary activity with the socio-cultural image of State Duma deputies by combining them into a common model of parliamentary elite of late imperial Russia. The technique developed when working with sources on parliamentary history can be used to study the activities of government and self-government in various territorial, chronological and structural sections.
Kartashova M. - Earning Capacity of Russian Empire Homecrafts in the Late 19th - Early 20th Centuries pp. 154-173


Abstract: The object of the study is craftsmen's incomes. Territorial frames cover the whole of the Russian Empire including the central guberniyas, the Asian part of Russia, the Caucasus, the Kingdom of Poland and Finland. The study addressed groups of occupations and territories. The author examines in detail the earning capacity of farms in Kaluzhskaya, Vologodskaya and Voronezhskaya guberniyas accounting for budget survey data. At the second stage of the study the author employed the database "Home Crafts  of the Russian Empire" created on the basis of unpublished and published sources. The database includes 7 tables and over 10 thousand records and informs about incomes of craftsmen in relation to a handicraft type.The author employs such statistical methods as factor analysis and correlation software in MS Excel and SPSS Statistics. Microsoft Access DBMS is analyzed.It is the first time when the earning capacity of homecrafts has been studied to cover the whole territory of the Russian Empire. In contrast to income in kind characteristic of agriculture, homecrafts could boast cash income. Homecraft income was not directly related to the size of a peasant's ploughed area. The biggest homecraft income was in Finland, the Kingdom of Poland and Turkestan. High incomes were among craftsmen in the Caucasus and Yakutskaya Oblast. The conclusion is the low earning capacity of home crafts, their close relationship with agriculture and stability of multifunctional farms. These are the farms Stolypin's reforms placed stake on.
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