DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2015.1.14118

Abstract: The subject of the research is the process of situational analysis and forecasting of medical conditions characterized by uncertainty and, in most cases, the lack of retrospective statistical information to build adequate mathematical prediction models. These features have identified the need to solve the problem with the involvement of experts who can provide adequate predictive assessment based on a large personal experience of solving such problems. Scientifically proved tested a methodology for predicting situational medical conditions, based on the involvement of subject matter experts. The research methodology is based on the theory of the collection and processing of expert information, medical informatics and medical statistics. Key findings of the study was to develop methods to ensure situational forecasting medical conditions as a set of procedures for the processing of factual data and expert judgment, helps managers in decision-making. Created as a result of research decision support system on a time scale, near-real provides an analysis of the current situation with the generation of options for health monitoring, forecasting spread of the disease with the mapping of the existing situation, the calculation of the need for forces and means for the realization of complex therapeutic and preventive measures, formation of appropriate management decisions.

Keywords: situational medical conditions, mathematical prediction, processing expert information, medical Informatics, medical prediction, health management, management decisions, forecasting uncertainty, many tours expertise, decision support

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2015.1.66014

Abstract: This research is focused on the processes of situational medical analysis and prediction, which is characterized by uncertainty and, in many cases, is impacted by a lack of retrospective statistical information, which would allow to build adequate mathematical prediction models. The abovementioned issues substantiate the necessity for solving the problem at hand, with the help of experts who are capable of producing quality predictions on the basis of rich professional experience in solving such problems. The author produces a scientifically substantiated, tested situational medical prediction methodology, basing their solutions on expert assistance in the target area. The methodology of the research is based on collecting and processing expert information theory, medical IT and medical statistics. The emergence of a methodological base for situational medical prognosis as a system of stages of factological data and expert judgment processing is the main result of this research. The decision-making assistance system, based on the real-time process and analysis of the existing situation, combined with generated variants of sanitary and hygienic monitoring, assists with prediction of disease spread and charting the situation, calculation of personnel and materiel requirements for realizing treatment and prophylactic procedure complexes, and reaching adequate administrative decisions.

Keywords: situational medical situation, mathematical prognosis, expert information prognosis, medical IT, medical prognosis, health administration, administrative decisions, uncertainty predictions, multi-stage expertise, decision-making support

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2021.1.26653

Abstract:   Currently, all the prerequisites have been met for transitioning to the qualitatively higher level of public finance management that correspond to the generally accepted principles and international standards. The responsibility for choosing the most effective methods of public expenditure management increases with the development of innovation economy. This actualizes the problem of improving the state financing of social expenditures. The subject of this research is the assessment of the effectiveness of government spending in the area of social policy, considering the range of indicators that reflect socioeconomic development of the regions. The score is suggested for assessing the effectiveness of government spending in the area of social policy based on the standardized values of the criteria that describe the aspects of social policy of the regions and the peculiarities of their economic development. The proposed methodology for integrated assessment of the effectiveness of government spending takes into account the trends in the criteria that characterize the level of economic development of the regions, as well as possible variability of budget flows aimed at financing social expenditures. Practical implementation of such methodology allows classifying the territories by the level of efficiency of social expenditures, which facilitates rational financial decisions on the formation of resources that ensure sustainable economic growth and development of strong human capital.  

Keywords: trend indicator, rating, standardization, integral evaluation, integrated indicator, government spending, efficiency, social politics, efficiency class, volatility

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2017.4.24288

Abstract: The subject of this research is the current trends in development of goods and services market of Yekaterinburg (the central administrative municipality of Sverdlovsk Region). The article provides the assessment result of consumer market conducted by the authors in 2016-2017 as a part of working group of municipality administration pertinent to actualizing the fourth direction of the Strategic plan for development of Yekaterinburg. The article recites the experience of development of the strategic documents obtained in municipality, as well as gives brief characteristic to the organizational mechanism of implementation of the approved documents. Methodology is based on application of the widely known and reputed method of SWOT analysis that allowed determining the strong and weak sides, as well as highlight the relevant opportunities and threats to the development of goods and services market in 2030 perspective. Special attention is given to the aspects of increasing competitiveness of the consumer market and consumption quality of goods and services. The scientific novelty consists in analysis of the statistical data of functionality of the goods and services market, which allowed carrying out critical evaluation of the relevance of consumer market trends that in 2009 were taken into account by the authors in formulating the current version of the Strategic plan for development of Yekaterinburg until 2015. The presented materials can be valuable for the representatives of science and self-governing authorities dealing with strategic planning of municipalities.

Keywords: quality of life, consumer services, consumer goods, market, SWOT analysis, municipality administration, strategic development, management methods, strategic planning, goods and services market