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Trends and management
Reference:
Stolyar V.P.
Methodological features of situational forecasting medical conditions
// Trends and management.
2015. № 1.
P. 3-9.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2015.1.14118 URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=14118
Методологические особенности прогнозирования ситуационной медицинской обстановки
Stolyar Vladimir Pavlovich
Doctor of Medicine
Chief Researcher, N.N. Burdenko Main Clinical Military Hospital
105229, Russia, Moscow, Gospital'naya Ploshchad St., 3, office 101
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gniiivm-s@yandex.ru
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Other publications by this author
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DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2015.1.14118
Received:
01-01-2015
Published:
05-02-2015
Abstract:
The subject of the research is the process of situational analysis and forecasting of medical conditions characterized by uncertainty and, in most cases, the lack of retrospective statistical information to build adequate mathematical prediction models. These features have identified the need to solve the problem with the involvement of experts who can provide adequate predictive assessment based on a large personal experience of solving such problems. Scientifically proved tested a methodology for predicting situational medical conditions, based on the involvement of subject matter experts. The research methodology is based on the theory of the collection and processing of expert information, medical informatics and medical statistics. Key findings of the study was to develop methods to ensure situational forecasting medical conditions as a set of procedures for the processing of factual data and expert judgment, helps managers in decision-making. Created as a result of research decision support system on a time scale, near-real provides an analysis of the current situation with the generation of options for health monitoring, forecasting spread of the disease with the mapping of the existing situation, the calculation of the need for forces and means for the realization of complex therapeutic and preventive measures, formation of appropriate management decisions.
Keywords:
situational medical conditions, mathematical prediction, processing expert information, medical Informatics, medical prediction, health management, management decisions, forecasting uncertainty, many tours expertise, decision support
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