DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2015.1.13342

Abstract:

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2015.1.66021

Abstract: The purpose of this research is to discover and analyze the major, aggregated and measurable factors that define a state’s or region’s security levels. Factors that impact national security (population and its structure, territory, technology level), are studied in order to build a mathematical model for regional, national and global security. In order to evaluate the model’s parameters and its verification, the author employs historical, statistical and analytical data that characterize the security of a state or region: population numbers and composition, territory size, social and economic characteristics, innovation index, etc. Along with the basic model, the author composed a dynamic model that reflects the changes in security, depending on ethnic growth, or reduction in population numbers, as well as affected by technological development. Using the systemic, axiological and historical approaches, and methods of mathematical modeling, the author formulated criteria for national and regional security that reflect the dichotomy of two values: sovereignty (abilities and capabilities for self-realization and freedom) and preservation (order, convenience, comfort). In the conception of this model the author uses the production function and the Pareto distribution. The model parameter evaluation is performed, based on Russian Federation’s statistical data, as well as historical and statistical security data for World War I participant countries. On the example of Austrian-Hungarian Empire’s dissolution, and based on the results of calculations, the author formulates the following hypothesis: Preservation levels of 0.4-0.6 is an indicator for possible dissolution of a large, multinational state.

Keywords: security, national security, regional security, geopolitics, sovereignty, mathematical model, security criteria, function of sovereignty, function of preservation, technological factor.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2017.2.20447

Abstract: The paper represents the methodological and applied problems of improving the efficiency of information management processes based on scenario approach in the context of significant escalation of the crisis in relations between Western countries and Russia. The work presents the results of the analysis of the basic methods, capabilities and instruments of information aggression of the Western countries headed by the US to destabilize the situation in Russian Federation. It examines the methodology of information management based on the indirect information impact to control the public consciousness. The problems of organizing effective counteraction to negative impacts of the activities of foreign non-governmental and externally funded domestic non-commercial organizations, mass media and social networks are analyzed. In order to solve the applied and practical problems of improving the efficiency of information management and countering external information aggression the methodology of simulation and scenario analysis of the complex information confrontation processes are proposed. The results of the scenario study of the developed basic multi-graph management models of countering information threats using the mathematical technique of functional iconic digraphs are represented. The scenario research carried out by the authors, in particular, showed that the main task of information management in current international situation is to ensure harmonization and consistency of efforts for effective protection of sovereignty of the Russian society and state against external threats, consolidation of civil society and development of its moral and historical values.

Keywords: social stability, information potential, countering threats, information aggression, geopolitical opponent, informational confrontation, information management, scenario analysis, simulation, iconic graphs

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2016.1.17447

Abstract: This article analyzes the consequences of dismantling of the political regimes in the countries of Middle East and Ukraine. As a result of color revolutions, the author notes the escalation within the aforementioned region of the socioeconomic difficulties and problems related to the domestic policy, as well as the global problems of world terrorism and uncontrolled mass migration. It is pointed out that the government overthrows, marked as color revolutions, are organized with the active participation of the countries of Anglo-Saxon political alliance, primarily under the leadership of the United States. The threat of spreading the extremist and fascist ideologies allows stating the fact that overcoming the consequences of color revolutions significantly affects the direction of the Russia’s foreign policy. The defining role of Russia in stabilizing the conflicts in the Middle East and post-Soviet space is evident. The real political actions in Syria and southeastern Ukraine let us claiming that Russia is the only country that conducts constructive policy aimed at stabilization of political situation in these regions. The author also proposes recommendations on regulation of the Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Keywords: Geopolitics, Russia, World politics, U. S. foreign policy, International relations, Diplomacy, Interests, State, Security, “color revolutions”

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2016.1.67576

Abstract: This article analyzes the consequences of dismantling of the political regimes in the countries of Middle East and Ukraine. As a result of color revolutions, the author notes the escalation within the aforementioned region of the socioeconomic difficulties and problems related to the domestic policy, as well as the global problems of world terrorism and uncontrolled mass migration. It is pointed out that the government overthrows, marked as color revolutions, are organized with the active participation of the countries of Anglo-Saxon political alliance, primarily under the leadership of the United States. The threat of spreading the extremist and fascist ideologies allows stating the fact that overcoming the consequences of color revolutions significantly affects the direction of the Russia’s foreign policy. The defining role of Russia in stabilizing the conflicts in the Middle East and post-Soviet space is evident. The real political actions in Syria and southeastern Ukraine let us claiming that Russia is the only country that conducts constructive policy aimed at stabilization of political situation in these regions. The author also proposes recommendations on regulation of the Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Keywords: Geopolitics, Russia, World politics, U. S. foreign policy, International relations, Diplomacy, Interests, State, Security, “color revolutions”

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2017.2.21692

Abstract:   Global competition for financial resources and associated with such process challenges to the Russian economy, substantiate the need for comprehensive study of the development of national financial infrastructure for the purpose of ensuring financial security. The object of this article is the financial infrastructure, while the subject is the financial security as a qualitative factor of financial; infrastructure, which reflects its global competitiveness. The goal of the research consists in formation of methodology for assessing the level of country’s financial security under the conditions of global competition, taking into account the state of national financial infrastructure on the basis of indicative system of criteria and indexes. The scientific novelty lies in development of the categorical apparatus of financial security. Within the framework of the research, the author clarifies the definitions of such terms as financial security and threat to financial security, formulates the country’s national interests in the area of financial security, as well as criteria for financial security that ensure such interests, considering the state of financial infrastructure. The article determines the indexes for evaluating the correspondence of financial infrastructure to the criteria of financial security. Leaning on the suggested criteria and indexes of the country, the indicative system of assessment of financial security is being formed.  

Keywords: criterias, global competition, national interests, threats, stability, financial security, financial infrastructure, indicators, threshold value, mechanism

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0730.2013.2.63197

Abstract: The article concerns main specific features of the planning and administration processes in emergency situations (ES). The authors establish and solve the problem of optimal planning of preventive measures against emergency situations in a region, which includes choice of a complex of arrangements in order to prevent (to exclude the causes of appearance and lower the gravity of the consequences of its development) of emergency situations. The authors offer to use the following efficiency criteria: possible human losses, amount of material harm caused by ES, or amount of summary costs for the involvement of forces and means in order to implement preventive measures and to prevent an emergency situation. The problem is reduced to the integral (Boolean) programming, and it may be resolved by standard means. The authors provide formalized methods for problem-solving within operative processes planning for prevention and liquidation of consequences of emergency situations of various types. The authors evaluate a complex of issues regarding higher efficiency of use of temporal, resource-based, structural and technological, natural - climatic, environmental and physiological reserves in order to solve the problems of operative management in emergency situations. The authors solve the problem of minimizing maximal period of time for the complex of emergency rescue and other emergency works at the management objects with the limitation of the amount of final losses, harms and costs of using necessary means and forces. The results of problem solving allows the regional administrative bodies go have a basic prevention plan for the actions in case of appearance and development of an emergency situation in accordance with the formed regional scenario and the relevant graph of causes and effects in emergency situation. The problem belongs to the class of problems of integral programming. The authors provide the results of efficiency analysis for the use of scenario approach in order to solve planning and administration problems in an emergency situation. It is shown that the widely ranged application of normative basis in the process of scenario analysis guarantees the possibility for a complex approach to resolving administrative problems in order to prevent and liquidate the consequences of an emergency situation, since it allows simultaneous evaluation of interrelated and principally different events and processes. It allows providing efficient provision for factors and threats of terrorist, fire, radiation, chemical, energetic, environmental challenges to security within a single scenario model.

Keywords: security, planning, administration, scenario analysis, imitation model, forecast, threat, emergency situation, harm, reserve.