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Conflict Studies / nota bene
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MAIN PAGE > Journal "Conflict Studies / nota bene" > Contents of Issue ¹ 01/2015
Contents of Issue ¹ 01/2015
Topical issues and vectors for modern conflict resolution studies development
Manoilo A.V. - Separatism: World Experience and Russian Realities

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.14206

Abstract: The concept of “separatism” is widely interpreted in modern political and legal practice. This concept implies: raising claims of self-determination of the parts of state territories and their subsequent separation and independence (secessionism); the use of illegal (power) control methods for expansion of autonomous, federal, confederal rights. In some cases, the separatist movement(s) may operate in neighboring countries, speaking for the union with a neighboring country or a part of it (irredentism). Separatist movements create political parties, usually of nationalistic or military (terrorist) formation and, if possible, a kind of “government in exile.” Separatist movements today are gaining momentum around the world. Currently, they are a global ethno-political problem. Separatism has the separation of a certain area of the multi-national state and the creation of its independent nation-state formation as its main task. In the modern world the destructive effect of separatism applies to virtually all states. It performs in several guises: as a phenomenon inherent to multinational and multi-religious states, and as a way to translate the geopolitical interests of the leading world powers into reality. In the latter case, the goal is the structural transformation of the existing world order.
Keywords: international relations, forin policy, separatism, conflict, state, federalism, inteests, values, politica, security
Manoylo A.V. - Separatism: global experience and Russian realities pp. 5-16

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66058

Abstract: In today’s political and legal practices, the term “separatism” is understood rather broadly. It is defined as: demands for self-determination by territories within states, their following separation and independence (secessionism); employment of illegal (violent) means for expanding the power of an autonomy, or a subject within federations and confederations. In some cases, separatist movements (groups) may work in adjacent countries towards unification with their neighbor country, or its part (irredentism). Separatist movements create political parties (which are often of nationalist in nature), military (terrorist) organizations, and “governments in exile”, when possible. Currently, separatist movements grow in strength all around the world, becoming a global ethnopolitical problem. The main goal of separatism is the secession of territories of multinational states and creating independent national governments. In the modern world, the destructive influence of separatism affects almost all countries. It manifests itself in several ways: as a phenomenon present in multinational and multiconfessional countries, and as means of realization for geopolitical interests of leading world powers. The latter case clearly suggests a far-reaching goal of structural transformation of existing world order.
Keywords: international relations, foreign politics, separatism, conflict, state, federalism, interests, values, politics, security.
The subject field of Conflict studies
Rep'eva A.M. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.12810

Abstract:
Repyeva A.M. - The phenomenon of conflict in political research: definition, forms and phases of political conflict flow pp. 17-23

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66059

Abstract: This article studies the phenomenon of conflict in the sphere of politics. This topic raises such interest because conflict as a phenomenon of our society, despite its age and presence in modern world, is yet to be fully defined, and there is no single scientific approach to defining the term “conflict”. The author attempts a methodological rethinking of political conflict as a phenomenon, and explains the diversity of its existing definitions that vary per each academic discipline that attempts to explain it from its own angle. The author explains that the broad differentiation of the term “conflict” is dictated by the fact that it’s studied by multiple science disciplines that view it from different sides. It is also noted that General Conflict Studies contains several branches: political, psychological, social, legal, military, administration, labour, etc. Each branch has its own subject field, and studies specific aspects of conflict. The methodological basis of this research is constituted by systemic, structural-functional, comparative-historical, comparative-political, geopolitical, cultural-civilizational approaches, and the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling and observation. The novelty of this research is defined by a consolidation of approaches and methods that exist in modern political science, as it is applied to understanding the phenomenon of a political conflict. The conclusions reached represent a multitude of approaches for understanding the subject field of Conflict studies as an academic discipline, as well as to sorting out the considerable number of interpretations in its terminology. This, in turn, sets the goal of further studying of political conflict as a phenomenon.
Keywords: conflict, research, diversification, phenomenon, phase, study, analysis, tension, politics, traits.
The global geopolitics of modern conflict
Bajrektarevic A. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.13572

Abstract:
Bajrektarevic A. - 25 years after 9/11 — How many Germanies should Europe have? pp. 24-30

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66060

Abstract: Ever since the Peace of Westphalia, Europe maintained the inner balance of powers by keeping its core section soft. Peripheral powers like England, France, Denmark, (Sweden and Poland being later replaced by) Prussia, the Ottomans, Habsburgs and Russia have pressed and preserved the center of continental Europe as their own playground. At the same time, they kept extending their possessions overseas or, like Russia and the Ottomans, over the land corridors deeper into Asian and MENA proper. Once Royal Italy and Imperial Germany had appeared, the geographic core «hardened» and for the first time started to politico-militarily press onto peripheries, including the two European mega destructions, known as the two World Wars. Therefore, this new geopolitical reality caused a big security dilemma lasting from the 1814 Vienna congress up to Potsdam conference of 1945, being re-actualized again with the Berlin Wall destruction: How many Germanies and Italies should Europe have to preserve its inner balance and peace? At the time of Vienna Congress, there were nearly a dozen of Italophone states and over three dozens of Germanophone entities — 34 western German states + 4 free cities (Kleinstaaterei), Austria and Prussia. The post-WWII Potsdam conference concludes with only three Germanophone (+ Lichtenstein + Switzerland) and two Italophone states (+ Vatican). Than, 25 years ago, we concluded that one of Germanies was far too much to care to the future. Thus, it disappeared from the map overnight, and joined the NATO and EU — without any accession talks — instantly. West of Berlin, the usual line of narrative claims that the European 9/11 was an event of the bad socio-economic model being taken over by the superior one — just an epilogue of pure ideological reckoning. Consequently — the narrative goes on — the west (German) taxpayers have taken the burden. East of Berlin, people will remind you clearly that the German reunification was actually a unilateral takeover, an Anschluss, which has been paid by the bloody dissolutions affecting in several waves two of the three demolished multinational Slavic state communities. A process of brutal erosions that still goes on, as we see it in Ukraine today.
Keywords: conflict, foreign policy, the United States, geopolitics, political instability, diplomacy, government, interests, values, safety
Karyakin V.V. - Civil War in the South-East of Ukraina The exherience scenario analysis and forecasting for regional military-political situation -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.14127

Abstract: This article is devoted to the acute problem that arises in Ukraine and around it, which creates new challenge and direct threats to national interests and security of RF. Scenery analysis of regional military-political environment on the basis of evolutionary simulation of international systems shows that it is a result of intentional western politics directed to transformation of Ukraine in its strategic springboard for pressing of Russia for the purpose transformation of Russia to the leading world power. At the same time on the world chessboard Ukraine remains small change in the hands of world actors in its struggle with Russia for global leadership. In case of Moscow victory in this conflict Russia will take a firm place on the world arena and add new geopolitical dimension to future multipolar world.
Keywords: scenery analysis, forecasting, evolutionary simulation, military-political environment, international systems, Ukrainian crisis, Russia, USA, EC, safety
Karyakin V.V. - Civil War in South-East of Ukraine: a scenario analysis and prediction of politico-military background pp. 31-44

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66061

Abstract: This article is focused on the critical geopolitical situation inside and around Ukraine that presents new challenges and direct threats to national interests and security of Russian Federation. The scenario analysis of regional politico-military background and evolutional modeling of international systems, as exemplified by the Ukrainian crisis, demonstrates that this crisis is a direct result of Western country efforts intended straight to turn Ukraine into its strategic foothold for pressuring Russia in order to prevent it from becoming a leading world power. The methodological basis of this research is constituted of systemic, structural-functional, comparative-political approaches, and the methods of analysis, synthesis, observation and modeling. Ukraine, as a piece on the Global geopolitical chessboard, is still a small piece for lead actors of international politics in their antagonism towards Russia in a struggle for global and regional leadership. If Moscow wins in this conflict, Russia will have a solid spot among the great powers, and will fortify its influence on the international arena considerably, giving the new, multipolar world a new geopolitical dimension.
Keywords: scenario analysis, prediction, evolution modeling, politico-military background, international systems, Ukrainian crisis, Russia, USA, EU, security.
International conflicts
Khabenskaya E.O. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.13713

Abstract:
Khabenskaya Ye.O. - The 1989 Senegal-Mauritanian conflict: reasons and consequences pp. 45-58

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66062

Abstract: A border conflict occurred in 1989 between Senegal and Mauritania, it grew into an armed conflict, and later, into a prolonged crisis. The Senegal-Mauritania 1989–1991 crisis had long-standing political, economic, and sociocultural background. The main reason for the conflict was the lack of resolution of territorial disputes between the two countries, reaching from colonial times. The conflict between two countries sparked ethnic and racial tensions between African and Arab population in Senegal — and aggravated an existing one in Mauritania. The methodological basis of this research consists of systemic, structural-functional, comparativehistorical, comparative-political, geopolitical, cultural-civilizational approaches, and the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling and observation. Along with the escalation of the Senegal-Mauritania conflict, mass riots have taken place, and fighting between two ethnic groups broke out, resulting in hundreds dead and thousands forced to become refugees. The harshest consequences of the Senegal-Mauritania conflict are humanitarian. Thousands of afro-Mauritian refugees that fled their homes during the conflict still cannot return to Mauritania, and thousands more who returned cannot restore their homes, their land, and their status, and even citizenship.
Keywords: Conflict studies, foreign politics, Senegal, Mauritania, political instability, conflict, slavery, interests, values, security.
Armed conflict and war
Bocharnikov I.V. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.14063

Abstract:
Bocharnikov I.V. - Black Sea as a major Russia-NATO theater of standoff in the Ukrainian crisis pp. 59-64

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66063

Abstract: This article analyzes the unfolding situation in the Black Sea region, on the background of escalating crisis in Russia-NATO relations that is closely linked to the perception of current events in Ukraine. The author outlines the interests of the USA in the Black Sea region, as well as the dynamics of NATO expansion in this area. A growth in NATO politico-military activity becomes evident since early 2014, simultaneous with the escalation of Ukrainian crisis, taking into account the increase in overtly anti-Russian military exercises by Alliance member states. The author analysis of NATO leadership’s decisions to increase Navy presence in the Black Sea. The methodology of this research includes systemic, structural-functional and comparative approaches, as well as methods of analysis, synthesis, observation and modeling. In this article, the author reaches a conclusion that NATO leadership deliberately aggravates the situation in the Black Sea basin, as well as possible withdrawal from the Montreux convention that regulates military ship presence in the Black Sea by U.S. and their allies. The author provides a risk appraisal for international security and national security of Russian Federation.
Keywords: conflict studies, foreign politics, conflict, Black Sea region, Black Sea gulfs, NATO, Russia, North- Atlantic Alliance, Security, Crimea.
The battle for resources
Boyarkina O.A. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.13957

Abstract:
Boyarkina O.A. - Theoretical aspects researching of international conflicts around bodies of water pp. 65-77

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66064

Abstract: The subject of this research are international conflicts on border rivers. Forms, methods and tools of international water-based conflict resolution are being studied in this article. For this purpose, it is necessary to distill the defining traits of such conflict, the major factors for its emergence, and to define types of conflicts in which water resources play the role of political leverage, as well as military and economic assets for reaching goals aligned with national interests. Precedents of successful international dispute resolutions that involve joint use of bordering water resources are present. The methods of this research involve methodology used to study international water-based conflicts: content analysis, factor analysis, system methods, as well as crossdiscipline approach. Joint water basin usage regime for bodies of water adjacent to two or more states often become a source of tension and aggravation of international disputes. The author reaches a conclusion that, due to hydrological and geographical particularities, each conflict is unique, and each single instance requires an individual approach.
Keywords: international water conflict, bordering water resources, international relations, water deficiency, international security, national interests, political realism, international water Law, territorial sovereignty concept, fight for resources.
Zanitti F.B. - FUTURE OF DAVOS IN KYRGYZSTAN

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.14205

Abstract: Is the new Russian approach towards China and India, vector for a multipolar world order? Will the new Davos – gathering between vanity fair and summit of the mightiest – in future take place in Kyrgyzstan – Central Asian country surrounded by the most prosperous and promising powers? The last months of 2014 were marked by a series of significant bilateral agreements and summits involving Russia, India and China. According to many international analysts, the research of better relations with the two Asian giants by Moscow represents another further step towards global transformation from an unipolar order ruled by United States to a multipolar one. A key point in order to analyze the fundamental reasons of Moscow’s approach towards China and India is connected to difficulties emerged in the last year with European Union and United States. Complications in Russia-West relations are clearly exemplified by the Ukrainian imbroglio.However, it’s also necessary to dwell on long-term strategic interests of the countries involved. Despite the current shaky situation of Eastern Europe and Middle East, generally speaking Beijing and New Delhi look at Russia as a reliable partner with whom it’s fundamental continue to dialogue, cooperate and trade. China-Russia dialogue is growing from mid-nineties, while Indian strategic relationship with Moscow is heir of the one established during Cold War with Soviet Union. Moreover, it should not to be underestimate the fact that Russia, India and China are already actively cooperating in other multilateral organizations, such as BRICS forum (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), and have the opportunity to develop new platforms for political, economic and military cooperation, for example within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The strategic triangle Russia-India-China (RIC), taken into account difficulties of relations especially considering Indo-Chinese bond characterized at the same time by cooperation and competition, could therefore be an interesting model of dialogue in the new multipolar world order.
Keywords: politic, the international safety, geopolitic, trend, state, security, diplomacy, international relftions, international affairs, interests
Zanitti F.B. - Future Davos forum in Kyrgyzstan pp. 78-84

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66065

Abstract: This article is intended to clarify several sociopolitical issues regarding the Central Asian region. Do we detect a new approach that Russia, together with India and China, uses to form a multipolar world? Will the new Davos forum in Kyrgyzstan attract the leaders of the most influential Central Asian countries, and become as representative as its European prototype? Late 2014 was marked by the signing of several bilateral agreements during Summits involving Russia, India and China. According to numerous international experts, improved relations between Moscow and the two Asian giants (China and India), represents another big step in transforming a unipolar world order with the USA as the only leading country into a multipolar world. The analysis of the main reasons for Beijing and New Deli becoming closer with Moscow will start with the complications in Russia-US relations. One of the reasons for Russia-West relations becoming colder is the position of Russia in the Ukrainian crisis, which resulted in Russian leadership reaching a decision to expand their foreign policy vector in Eastern direction. With that said, tighter connections of Russia, China and India fully reflects long-term interests of those countries. Despite several questionable moments in Russian foreign policy in Eastern Europe and Near East, Beijing and New Deli view Russia as a reliable partner for further dialogue, cooperation and trade. The Russia-China cooperation, since 1990s, is actively developing, while strategic Russia-India partnership still maintains the image of the USSR era, when the Cold War took place. We also cannot discount the fact that Russia, India and China are already working together in many international organizations, like the BRICS forum (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and, on this basis, they already have opportunities to develop new platforms for political, economic, and military cooperation, like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At the same time, the Russia-India-China strategic triangle already has a huge potential for combining efforts to achieve mutual goals, which can, in turn, give birth to a new model of international dialog, signature for the newly-forming multipolar world.
Keywords: politics, international security, geopolitics, trend, state, security, diplomacy, international relations, international life, interests.
Ideological confrontation and the war of meanings
Khizrieva S.S. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.13079

Abstract:
Hizrieva S.S. - Russia-Brazil partnership in BRICS: digital diplomacy to strategic cyber-security pp. 85-92

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66066

Abstract: Today, the influence of BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South African Republic) on world economy and the formation of global regulation and coordination mechanisms for regional and sub-regional associations, grows rapidly. In the end, this reinforces the multi-level system of world economy management that allows for more stability, and, with a crisis at hand, helps compensate for temporary problems. Because if this, the integrated association is under constant informational pressure on behalf of the USA. The methodological basis for this research consists of the systemic, structural-functional, comparative-political and informational approaches, as well as methods of analysis, synthesis, observation, expert evaluations, modeling, comparison. The author demonstrates the evolution of BRICS integration mechanisms, and attempts to uncover the technologies that Russia and Brazil employ to defend against the USA in information warfare. The author analyzes and describes the system of ideological and value-based war between BRICS and leading Western countries (spearheaded by the USA and their politico-military allies), that allows to deter the growing American expansion and defend BRICS sovereignty via the means of information and psychological warfare.
Keywords: Conflict studies, foreign politics, Russia, BRICS, international relations, diplomacy, cyber warfare, values, security.
Collective defense initiatives
Kalachev D.N. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.13710

Abstract:
Kalachev D.N. - The crises in the history of Russia-NATO relations pp. 93-101

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66067

Abstract: This article analyzes the three major crises in the history of Russia-NATO relations (1999, 2008 and 2014). Those crises were directly linked with the disagreements on the status of territories like Kosovo, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea. Analyzing each crisis in the succession, the author reaches for the reasons and draws attention to the fact that each time, disagreements between the two sides lead to a halt in cooperation, freezing of common programs and institutes. This, however, was successfully overcome during the course of the first two crises. The methodological basis of this research consists of systemic, structural-functional, comparative-historical, comparative-political, geopolitical and cultural-civilizational approaches, and methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, modeling and observation. From the author’s point of view, the crises demonstrate the fundamental differences of the two parties regarding the legal evaluation of core International Law, as it is present in U.N. legislation, and regarding the system of European security, in a period of a global system crisis. The author concludes that another quality level of partnership is needed, and that it is impossible to build a security system for Europe without, or against Russia.
Keywords: Conflict studies, foreign politics, international relations, international conflict, NATO, Russia, crisis, interests, values, security.
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