DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2023.3.38904

Abstract: In modern conditions the range of use of intelligence in politics is expanding. Today, experts single out intelligence operations as a separate kind of informational confrontation, on a par with the cybernetic and psychological struggle. In international conflicts, the goals are more and more often achieved not through direct military influence, but using alternative forms: sabotage, economic, diplomatic, etc. One of the widespread areas of secret services’ activity appears to be the interference into the development of the political systems of sovereign states. Thus, nowadays on a par with military interventions there are economic, diplomatic, ideological, intelligence, etc. interventions. This circumstance significantly complicates both the detection of foreign interventions and realization of countermeasures. It is especially difficult to solve these tasks in a situation of reconnaissance/intelligence intervention carried out by the secret services, whose activities are, as a rule, autonomous and entirely based on the use of unofficial methods and techniques, quite often associated with violation of the law. Moreover, as far as the choice of a interventional course by the government mostly depends on the information on the development of the situation provided by various departments, a misestimation is possible due to high level of bias in the work of intelligence-analytical services. In this perspective, studying the experience of past interventions largely reveals the most dangerous for the state forms of external interference. Account of this experience is a necessary condition for the formation of ability of society to resist disorganization and the crisis of statehood.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0609.2021.5.36725

Abstract: In light of the aspect that social development is a combination of stable and innovative phenomena, the emergence and implementation of which depends on the limited range of factors, it should not theoretically appear as a problem for the scholars to forecast the vectors of social development. In other words, if society depends on the trajectory of its previous development and are rare instances of the individuals going beyond the traditional institutional blockages of innovative progress, the historical science should provide ample opportunities for forecasting the events, namely of economic nature. Therefore, a number of historians of the XX century advances a thesis on the need to apply mathematical tools to the analysis of human behavior in the historical context. The trend for using mathematical tools in human resource management and humanities research has recently gained relevance. For a long time, this methodology was considered equally suitable for describing events of the past and predicting future events. The experience of using forecasting models and mechanisms created by historians is however quite contradictory. The scholars are not always able to predict the vector of social progress of degree of regression. This article aims to explain the reasons for this situation.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2021.1.34842

Abstract: Today’s multipolar world, one can observe how different countries with different degree of agency on the international arena, seek to be actively involved in the development of recommendations for settling the existing crises, and pursue their foreign policy based on the own resources and national interests. This naturally results in complication of the system of international relations and makes it extremely difficult for its leading actors to make adequate decisions. The fact that the modern “world powers” have fundamentally different socioeconomic and political structure, aggravates the situation even more. Different values, principles of economic management, attitudes towards the role of the key social institutions and elements of the political system impede constructive communication between the states. Despite the efforts of many politicians, Europe is yet to reach cultural and political unity. The EU member-states have strong differences with regards to domestic and foreign policy; and some states continue to seek solutions to the existing crises, guided by their own principles of effective management. This defines the relevance of outlining the prospects for the convergence of national systems of political decision-making, since the discrepancy in this sphere increases distrust among the countries, parties and government leaders, as well as creates the background for various abusive activities.