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Reference:

Retroforecast of fires and their consequences as a method of estimating the effectiveness of innovations in the sphere of fire safety

Belozerov Valerii Vladimirovich

Doctor of Technical Science

General Director at LLC “Scientific Technological Production Center OKTAEDR”; Professor at the department of Automation of Production Processes, Don State Technical University

344091, Russia, Rostov-on-Don, ul. Kashirskaya, 22-41

safeting@mail.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Oleynikov Sergey Nikolaevich

PhD in Technical Science

Deputy Head at the Academy of the State Fire-Fighting Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia

129366, Russia, Moscow, ul. Borisa Galushkiina, 4

osn-fire@rambler.ru

DOI:

10.25136/2409-7543.2017.5.20698

Review date:

11-10-2016


Publish date:

05-11-2017


Abstract: The authors use the results of analysis of the current fire safety management system to detect the drawbacks of the methods and means of estimating fire safety, fires prevention and fire defense, which are typical for the sector, and not only are unable to ensure the state standard of fire safety of the population (0,999999), but also hamper launching some innovative solutions (models of operative and tactical and preventive activities, nitrogen power pumps, etc.). Such innovations would radically reduce the number of fires and their social and economic consequences. The authors offer a new method of retroforecasting the effectiveness of innovations in the sphere of fire safety, which allows focusing not on the future forecasting, but on the probabilistically-physical adequacy of elimination of causes and consequences of the fires, which had already happened. The novelty and the advantage of modeling the past consists in high veracity of the results. Virtual innovations are launched on the basis of long-term statistics of fires applying new Erlang distributions of deaths, injuries and damage to the same scope of fires taking into account the solutions offered. 


Keywords: statistical analysis, social and economic losses, fire safety, veracity, effectiveness, innovations, retroforecasting, modeling, probability of death, fire power tax
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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