DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.6.39169

Abstract: The subject of the research is the method of expert assessments for ranking threats to the national security of the Russian Federation. The object of research is the process of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation. The following expert methods are considered in the article: direct placement method; method of analysis of hierarchies; method of expert ranking of factors influencing the result. In this study, the existing approaches to the activities of expert groups based on the method of ranking factors are considered in more detail. Within the framework of this method, factors are ordered according to the degree of manifestation of their properties and influence on the ultimate goal (national security) in ascending or descending order. The method is used when it is impossible to quantify the factors that determine the course of processes in socio-economic systems. The scientific novelty of the use of expert approaches is substantiated by the authors by the lack of necessary statistical information on the quantitative characteristics of the relationship between threats to the national security of the Russian Federation and the factors that form them, as well as by the possibility of filling this gap by expert means. The article presents the results of a survey of 23 experts - specialists in the field of national and economic security on the ranking of threats identified in the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that the use of the method of expert assessments for ranking threats on a point scale makes it possible to determine the most significant and urgent threats to national security based on the experience and knowledge of highly professional experts. The method is simple, understandable and convenient for decision makers, and gives them the opportunity to quickly take measures to minimize and neutralize threats to national security in order to further strengthen it. The technology of forming an expert group and conducting an online survey of experts can be widely used in Russian practice in solving problems to ensure the national security of the country.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2021.4.36382

Abstract: Energy security is currently one of the key components of national security of any country. The object of this research is the basic documents of strategic planning of the European Union in sphere of ensuring energy security (Roadmap of the European Union “Final 10-year ETIP SNET R&I roadmap covering 2017-26”) in the context of comparative analysis of the existing approaches towards ensuring energy security of the Russian Federation (Energy Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation). The analysis is conducted from the perspective of comparison of two documents of strategic planning for the purpose of identification of threats and risks to the economic security. The subject of this research is the threats and risks to energy security of the countries, and thus, their national security. The scientific novelty consists in examination of the documents of strategic planning in the sphere of energy security using methodology of comparative analysis developed by the authors, which is based on the dynamic semantic network. In accordance with the aforementioned methodology, analysis is carried out on the structure of documents that encompasses the processes, the manifestation of which can be observed through objective and subjective methods of monitoring. The authors developed the expert analytical apparatus of comparative analysis, as well as the methodology for assessing the objectivity of comparative analysis. The developed methodology of comparative analysis is tested on the example of strategic planning documents in the sphere of energy security of the European Union and the Russian Federation. The conclusion is made on the need for further research of the methodological foundations of comparative analysis in order to detect the risks and threats to the economic security of the Russian Federation.