DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2023.5.68816

Abstract: The object of the study is the procedure for assessing the state of national security of the Russian Federation, which is being considered for its improvement based on the implementation of a competitive approach when conducting assessments. The authors review the current procedure for assessing national security and justify the need for its improvement. A comparative analysis of domestic and international experience in the formation of criteria, the hierarchical structure of indicators and the prioritization of threats is carried out. The necessity of forming a hierarchical structure, universalization and integration of indicators as part of the implementation of a competitive approach in assessing the state of national security is substantiated. Particular attention is paid to studying the possibility of using uniform international criteria and a system of indicators in domestic practice. Based on the results of the study, the following conclusions are presented. The state of security is not an absolute value, but is characterized by relative indicators obtained from the results of a comparative assessment of the indicators of competing countries. Security monitoring and assessment should be carried out on a cross-country rating basis, comparing different countries, including countries whose activities are the source of the main challenges and threats. The novelty lies in the substantiation of the use of a competitive approach and rating methodology, allowing governing bodies to assess the state of security taking into account domestic development dynamics and a comparative analysis of the indicators of countries that can influence the state of security in Russia. Author also presented the associative series of national interests and national security indicators of the USA and Russia. In contrast to similar studies, an original approach to the formation of a set of indicators of the state of national security is proposed. Building a hierarchical structure of indicators provides an opportunity to focus on the most important international complex and integral indicators, and increase the efficiency and reliability of assessments. The main directions for improving assessment based on the implementation of structural-hierarchical and competitive approaches have been identified.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.6.39169

Abstract: The subject of the research is the method of expert assessments for ranking threats to the national security of the Russian Federation. The object of research is the process of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation. The following expert methods are considered in the article: direct placement method; method of analysis of hierarchies; method of expert ranking of factors influencing the result. In this study, the existing approaches to the activities of expert groups based on the method of ranking factors are considered in more detail. Within the framework of this method, factors are ordered according to the degree of manifestation of their properties and influence on the ultimate goal (national security) in ascending or descending order. The method is used when it is impossible to quantify the factors that determine the course of processes in socio-economic systems. The scientific novelty of the use of expert approaches is substantiated by the authors by the lack of necessary statistical information on the quantitative characteristics of the relationship between threats to the national security of the Russian Federation and the factors that form them, as well as by the possibility of filling this gap by expert means. The article presents the results of a survey of 23 experts - specialists in the field of national and economic security on the ranking of threats identified in the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that the use of the method of expert assessments for ranking threats on a point scale makes it possible to determine the most significant and urgent threats to national security based on the experience and knowledge of highly professional experts. The method is simple, understandable and convenient for decision makers, and gives them the opportunity to quickly take measures to minimize and neutralize threats to national security in order to further strengthen it. The technology of forming an expert group and conducting an online survey of experts can be widely used in Russian practice in solving problems to ensure the national security of the country.