Finance and Management - rubric Financial planning and forecasting
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MAIN PAGE > Journal "Finance and Management" > Rubric "Financial planning and forecasting "
Financial planning and forecasting
Barkovskii S.S., Vorob'ev A.A. - The technology of planning of resources' provision of federal purpose-oriented programs pp. 11-24


Abstract: The subject analyzed in this article is the problem of panning of distribution of budgetary and off-budgetary resources allocated on realization of federal purpose-oriented programs, intensification or expansion of which brings forward an increasing need for development of methodological support that would enable rational distribution of budgetary and off-budgetary means of a federal purpose-oriented program with a longtime term of realization. In his analysis, the author takes into account certain peculiarities of realization of accounting the multiple-stage character of financing federal purpose-oriented programs, peculiarities of accounting two sources of their funding, as well as peculiarities of accounting the distribution of the allocated budgetary and off-budgetary resources. The methods used by the author are mathematic modeling, financial and economic forecasting, optimal managing, mathematic programming, dynamic programming and planning of experiment. The main results of the analysis consist in substantiation and working out of a technology of rational planning of distribution of budget and off-budget resources for realization of complicated federal purpose-oriented programs, which enables timely complication of them and achieving high practical effectiveness with a priori scheduled resource and time limitations. 
Levchaev P.A., Khezazna B. - Peculiarities of strategic activity of corporations in the conditions of digital economy pp. 12-20


Abstract: This article examines the processes of formation of financial strategy within the system of corporate management in the conditions of digitalization. Implementation of digital technologies in all spheres of life opens new opportunities for socioeconomic development of the companies. In the nearest future, scientific research in the sphere of digital economy will be especially relevant due to heightened risk of being in arrears of global trends. Rapid changes taking place in engineering, technology, and organization of production increase the importance of corporate financial management. The digital age changes the traditional models of sectoral markets, enhances competitiveness between  the participants of economic processes. The theoretical and methodological framework of this research contains the works of economists on the problems of finances, financial management, and planning. The subject of this research is the combination of economic, organizational and management relations developed in the process of strategic activity of corporations in the conditions of digital economy. Enterprises that are adapted to modern economic conditions set new priorities in the process of formation of management models: the role of fixed assets decreases, while intangible assets and information become the key business engines. The effectiveness of management decisions, and thus, the effective functioning of the enterprise overall depends on the availability of accurate, timely and exhaustive information. Prompt responsiveness to the changes of external environment is the primary factor for ensuring effective management of the economic entity. The novelty of this research lies consists in the original concept of corporate financial strategic planning in digital economy in the context of the corporate management system of the industrial enterprise.
Kuznetsov N. - Using additive regression models for short-term forecasting of financial macro-indicators and assessing the potential for financing megaprojects pp. 15-26



Abstract: The subject of this article is the issue of using additive regression models to predict financial indicators at the macro level. At the same time, special attention is paid to the impact of the economy monetization on the possibility of attracting funding for global development projects (megaprojects). It is shown that the main drawback of the most common forecasting models today is their situation-dependent nature. This, in turn, creates difficulties with the initial setup of the models and the subsequent interpretation of the results obtained, limiting the scope of the models, making the use of this toolkit difficult for financial professionals who do not have special mathematical training. With the help of modeling, forecast values of the gross domestic product (GDP) and money supply (M2) for the short-term time obtained, on the basis of which the expected value of the level of the economy monetization was calculated. Based on a predictive assessment of the level of monetization, it is shown that at the moment the country has a limited potential for increasing domestic debt, which, in the conditions of closing access to international capital markets and partial blocking of state reserves, can become a factor in disrupting the financing of megaprojects for the economy structural modernization. Directions for improving the monetary policy aimed at correcting this situation and increasing domestic investment activity are proposed.
Novikova E. - The problems in information and analytical support of the operational analytics within the budgeting systems of Russian businesses pp. 28-40


Abstract: The subject of this research is the unstructured sequence of information flows, which manifests as the key element within the system of analytical support of budgeting in modern businesses. Thus, we can currently observe a rapid increase in the number of economic subjects, which view the management process as the process of transformation of disaggregated big data into the structured and readable information flows for managerial decision-making. At the same time, in a market environment, special value gains the analytics of information by separate categories (products, clients, departments, etc.), rather than the company as a whole. The scientific novelty consists in determination of peculiarities of information and analytical support of budgeting in modern business in the context of evolution of analytics from descriptive to prescriptive. The conducted research allow concluding that the implementation of operational analytics into the budgeting system of Russian businesses may encounter certain difficulties associated with the material and technical support of data collection, information technical processing of information flows, organizational work conditions of business as a system, and influence of human factor. As a result, the author formulates a set of solutions for the aforementioned problems, as well as control criteria as a transitioning stage towards the concept of operational analytics.
Arshakian R.A., Mironenkova M.V. - Analysis of factors affecting the excess profitability of mutual funds in Russia for 2015-2022 pp. 33-47



Abstract: The relevance of the study of financial market instruments is undeniable and well aligned with the achievement of Russia's national development goals until 2030. The subject of this article is the excess return of Russian mutual funds (MF) in the period from 2015 to 2022. The authors analyzed in detail the scientific literature and took as a basis the conclusions and results obtained in previous studies on similar topics. The aim of the study was to find the factors determining the excess return of mutual funds, which is the difference between the return of the funds and the return of the selected benchmark. The study was based on data from Investfunds Internet portal, which provides information on investment assets for a wide range of people. Econometric analysis was conducted based on an unbalanced panel consisting of an average of 185 funds per year. To achieve the objective, we studied already existing econometric models for analyzing excess fund returns and used them to construct a pass-through regression model and a fixed-effects model. Analyzing the performance of mutual funds depending on their parameters will allow investors to get relevant recommendations about which fund should be preferred to buy a share in its portfolio, which corresponds to the scientific novelty of the study. The main conclusion of the study is that using econometric criteria, the fixed-effects model was selected as the best of the constructed models. A notable contribution of the authors to the study of the topic is the identification of the main aspects that investors should pay attention to when choosing a mutual fund, namely funds with a high net asset value, the object of investment of which are stocks and money, and the direction of investment - precious metals.
Pogorelova T. - Financial Sustainability of Economic Entities and Implications for Tax Planning pp. 38-82


Abstract: The necessity of using the concept of financial sustainability as a summary indicator that describes the financial condition of an entity as a whole, determines the importance of rational administration. To maintain successful management of the financial sustainability of organizations, it is necessary to develop an approach to the definition of this concept and in accordance with this definition, create estimation methods and methods for managing financial sustainability. The subject of the research is the financial sustainability of organizations and implications for tax planning. The author discusses the concept of financial sustainability, methods for evaluating financial sustainability and financial analysis in the form of a numerical example. To achieve this goal the author has used the following research methods: systems analysis, sample survey, classification, methods of comparison, induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, logical and systematic approaches, modeling and observation. In her research Pogorelova has developed the term base by clarifying the concept of "financial sustainability" and discovered the relationship between tax planning and financial sustainability of economic entities. The author has also developed the technique for assessing the financial sustainability of the organization, which does not require unnecessary material costs and allows to use  Excel or Open Office to assess the financial indicators and their dynamics. 
Golikova E.I. - Inflation in Russia: revealing the causes and the path of decline (on the strategic management platform) pp. 44-78



Abstract: In this study, it is proposed to conduct an experimental monetary reform in one of the regions of Russia. To carry out monetary reform by introducing a fee for the use of funds in the balance at the end of the month of each of the participants in economic relations. The purpose of the new monetary reform is to achieve the reduction of inflation to zero. This study is based on observations and practical experience of European countries, China. In this paper, the author believes that monetary inflation is caused by money added during distribution in different ratios. As the root cause of inflation, interest is singled out as one of the components added during the distribution of money, which generates a social conflict regarding the redistribution of public wealth. The experimental monetary reform may be the beginning of other reforms and a component of Russia's economic development within the framework of strategic management. The advantages of monetary reform of the natural economic order in combination with other reforms are as follows: reduction of inflation (almost to zero), which is caused mainly by a significant percentage component of the distributed funds; exclusion of percentages from the cost components and, as a consequence, prices as an instrument of income redistribution in an unfair way, i.e. accumulation of most of the income from a small group of individuals, and in amounts larger than they need; prevention of social catastrophe, prevention of social unrest and social clashes, reduction of the level of aggressiveness in society and the onset of social justice; reduction of prices for goods and services up to 50%; the emergence of a stable nationally-oriented quality economy; the possibility of updating physically and morally worn out fixed assets of public infrastructure; GDP growth.
Vlasova Y.A., Gerzelieva Z.I., Rogova T.M. - The peculiarities of development of consumer lending in the conditions of pandemic on the example of ZENITH Bank pp. 68-82


Abstract: The consumer segment of the credit services market is undergoing complex transformations due to systemic changes in the economic space caused by the pandemic. The subject of this research development trends in the market of consumer lending in the conditions of pandemic. The object is the credit services market in the context of digitalization. The article explores the peculiarities of development of the segment of consumer lending in depository institutions. Research methodology employs the method of statistical analysis and forecasting the development of trends in the area under study. The source information includes the official statistics on the dynamics of financial sector of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, available analytical sources and reports of ZENITH Bank. The main results lies in outlining the current trends in the development of consumer lending in the conditions of digitalization due to the pandemic. The author examines the ratio of the credit portfolio of the leading banks to the level of overdue debt, the structure of retail lending in the scope of credit portfolio, types and specificity of consumer lending products. Recommendations are formulated for stabilization of operating results of the commercial banks. Practical significance of the acquired results lies in revealing the impact of the ongoing changes upon the activity of depository institutions, attending risks, and vectors of the development of banking sector under the current conditions. The novelty consists in studying the experience of operation of medium-sized bank in crisis period, as well as in outlining the directions for improving its reliability and profitability.
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