по
Journal Menu
> Issues > Rubrics > About journal > Authors > About the Journal > Requirements for publication > Editorial collegium > List of peer reviewers > Review procedure > Policy of publication. Aims & Scope. > Article retraction > Ethics > Legal information > Editorial Board
Journals in science databases
About the Journal

Публикация за 72 часа - теперь это реальность!
При необходимости издательство предоставляет авторам услугу сверхсрочной полноценной публикации. Уже через 72 часа статья появляется в числе опубликованных на сайте издательства с DOI и номерами страниц.
По первому требованию предоставляем все подтверждающие публикацию документы!
MAIN PAGE > Back to contents
The Fourth Industrial Revolution in the Russian Federation: assessment of prospects based on structuring long-term cycles of cutting-edge development
Elshin Leonid Alekseevich

PhD in Economics

senior researcher at Center for Strategic Assessment and Forecasts of the Institute of Management, Economics and Finance, Kazan Federal University

420139, Russia, respublika Tatarstan, g. Kazan', ul. Ostrovskogo, 23/1

Leonid.Elshin@tatar.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Safiullin Marat Rashitovich

Doctor of Economics

Prorector on the Questions of Economic and Strategic Planning, Kazan Federal University

420111, Russia, respublika Tatarstan, g. Kazan', ul. Ostrovskogo, 23

Marat.Safiullin@tatar.ru
Abdukaeva Aliya Aidarovna

Leading Scientific Associate, Center of Advanced Economic Research of the Republic of Tatarstan Academy of Sciences

420111, Russia, respublika Tatarstan, g. Kazan', ul. Ostrovskogo, 23

Aliya.Abdukaeva@tatar.ru

Abstract.

The subject of this research is the mechanisms of structuring long-term economic cycles of cutting-edge development that form representation and forecasting assessment regarding the prospects and horizons of phase shifts of the ecosystem in the future. The object of this research is the evolution of the national economy in the context of modelling long-term economic cycles. Using modeling mechanism of long-term prospects of economic agents for the period of 1962-2000, the authors determine the trajectories of the phase shifts in the national economic system. This allowed not only identifying the character of cyclic development of national economy within the examined timeframe, but also scientifically substantiating the prospects and parameters of the arrival of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution in the Russian Federation. It is proved that based on the developed methodology of structuring cycles of cutting-edge development and its trial on the system of statistical data of national economy over the recent 60 years, that the socioeconomic crisis of the 1990’s was caused not only by the institutional transformations, but also the fact that during this period the long-term economic cycle entered the decline phase, which transformed on the brink of the end of 2000’s and beginning of 2010’s into the inclination phase, allowing substantiation of the conclusion that the phase of long-term growth in Russian economy will not arrive before 2020-2025.

Keywords: cycles of the advancing development, phase shifts, national economy, technological ways, the fourth industrial revolution, long-term business cycles, expectations of economic agents, forecasting, modeling, the cross-correlation analysis

DOI:

10.25136/2409-8647.2018.2.25987

Article was received:

20-04-2018


Review date:

10-04-2018


Publish date:

04-07-2018


This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

References
1.
Kondrat'ev N. D. Problemy ekonomicheskoi dinamiki. – M: Ekonomika, 1989. – 536 s.
2.
Kalinina K. Rossiya 4.0: kak podgotovit' stranu k chetvertoi promyshlennoi revolyutsii. [Elektronnyi resurs] // URL: https://www.rbc.ru/opinions/economics/13/01/2017/5878d2389a79470077130332
3.
Matveev Yu. V. Innovatsionno-modernizatsionnye volny v sotsial'no-ekonomicheskom razvitii: tekhnologicheskie uklady, makroekonomicheskie generatsii, vzglyad v budushchee. Kniga 1. Tekstil'naya, metallurgicheskaya, neftepererabatyvayushchaya, neftekhimicheskaya promyshlennost', elektroenergetika, voennoe mashinostroenie / Yu. V. Matveev, G. V. Semenov. – Samara: OOO «Izdatel'stvo As Gard», 2013. – 458 s.
4.
Agentstvo strategicheskikh initsiativ: [sait]. URL: http://asi.ru/nti/
5.
Abalkin L., Bol'shie tsikly kon''yunktury i teoriya predvideniya / N. Kondrat'ev, Yu. Yakovets, N. Makasheva. – M.: Ekonomika, 2002.
6.
Glaz'ev S. Yu. Dlinnye volny. Nauchno-tekhnicheskii progress; i sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoe razvitie / S. Yu. Glaz'ev, G. I. Mikerin. – Novosibirsk: Nauka, 1991. – 224 s.
7.
Peres K. Tekhnologicheskie revolyutsii i finansovyi kapital. Dinamika puzyrei i periodov protsvetaniya. – M.: Delo, 2011.
8.
Marat R. Safiullin, Elshin, L.A., Prygunova, M.I. Methodological approaches to forecasting the mid-term cycles of economic systems with the predominant type of administrative-command control (2016) Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 17 (SpecialIssue2), pp. 277-287.
9.
El'shin L.A. Sravnitel'nyi analiz tsiklicheskikh kolebanii regional'nykh ekonomicheskikh sistem: modelirovanie, identifikatsiya, prognozirovanie // Vestnik instituta ekonomiki rossiiskoi Akademii nauk. – 2017. – № 4. – S. 138 – 156.
10.
El'shin L.A. Mekhanizmy identifikatsii tsiklov delovoi aktivnosti regional'nykh ekonomicheskikh sistem na baze kross-korrelyatsionnogo analiza // Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika. – 2017. – T. 15, № 8. – S. 1540 – 1551. https://doi.org/10.24891/re.15.8.1540.
11.
Gumerov A. M. Teoriya i praktika statistiki: Ucheb. Posobie / A. M. Gumerov, N. N. Valeev, A. V. Aksyanova. – Kazan': Kolos, 2008.
12.
Shumpeter I. Teoriya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya. – M.: Progress, 1982. – 455 s.
13.
Glaz'ev S. Yu. Teoriya dolgosrochnogo tekhniko-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya. – M.: Vla-Dar, 1993. – 310 s.
14.
Glaz'ev S. Strategiya operezhayushchego razvitiya Rossii v usloviyakh global'nogo krizisa. – SPb, 2011.
15.
Marchetti Cesare. Society as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention and Innovation Cycles Revisited. Syracuse Schola, 1982.
Link to this article

You can simply select and copy link from below text field.


Other our sites:
Official Website of NOTA BENE / Aurora Group s.r.o.
"History Illustrated" Website