Conflict Studies / nota bene - rubric The global geopolitics of modern conflict

Abstract: This article is devoted to the study of the Kurdish issue from the perspective of its development prospects in the geopolitical aspect. The material contains the author's analysis of possible solutions to the Kurdish issue from the perspective of different states and supranational blocs, as well as factors that contribute to and hinder the resolution of the Kurdish issue in the foreseeable future. The material contains information about what factors influence the positions of the largest regional and international players on the analyzed issue. The creation of a Kurdish state seems unlikely; the alternative is, at a maximum, granting Kurdish communities maximum autonomy, at a minimum, changing their legal status in countries, primarily in Turkey, where their position is most vulnerable. The constant deterioration of the situation of the Kurds and their exclusion from the legal agenda in Turkey is called a possible cause of the civil war. The Kurdish issue cannot be resolved militarily, and possible solutions are individual for all affected countries, which, however, themselves suffer from internal crises (Syria, Iraq), and Iran, which lives under Sharia law, also suffers from sanctions pressure. In addition, there is no unity within the Kurdish communities themselves, which further complicates the political struggle. At the moment it is possible to distinguish long-term and short-term prospects for resolving the Kurdish issue, both from the position of the people themselves and other interested actors. The authors also analyze the complicating circumstances, which include the interest of external actors (such as the United States and NATO as a whole) to use the Kurds to solve their own geopolitical problems in the region; internal contradictions among the Kurdish leaders themselves, which does not allow reaching a consensus on a number of organizational issues, and a difficult economic situation.

Keywords: Kurdistan Workers' Party, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Kurdish–Turkish conflict, Greater Middle East, Middle East, Kurdistan, Kurds

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2017.2.23704

Abstract: The object of this research is the Syrian crisis and the attempts of its resolution by external actors. The subject of this paper are the roles of Russia and China in resolving the Syrian conflict and in the fight against terrorism. The goal of this work is to evaluate the level of international security terrorist threat presented by ISIL, and the contribution of Russia in opposing it, and to analyze the policies of China regarding terrorism and the Syrian conflict as well as the stance of BRICS countries on the issue, such as India and Brazil, and BRICS as a whole. The methodological basis of this research includes comparative political approach, the methods of analysis and synthesis. The scientific novelty of this work lies in the fact that, despite the conflict in Syria is the subject of many publications, the international aspect of this problem, and in particular, the stances of Russia and China in the resolution of this conflict and the fight against terrorism has not yet become yet the object of in-depth research. This topic becomes relevant when some states attempt to regulate crises by exerting power impact, bypassing the Security Council and the UN Charter, which leads to the escalation of tension. The author comes to the conclusion that the increase in terrorist activity, which poses a serious threat to international security, makes the need for cooperation between the leading powers of the world all the more relevant for dealing with crisis situations in general, and the Syria conflict in particular.

Keywords: Assad, Syria, ISIL, conflicts, terrorism, international security, Irac, USA, China, Russia

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2017.1.22843

Abstract: The object of this paper is Chinese policy in Africa. The subject of research is ‘soft power’ as a tool of this policy. Chinese researchers use a broad interpretation of this concept - they consider that the main source of 'soft power' of China should be viewed in the context of the Chinese model of development - the foreign policy of China, its national institutions and its international practices in all fields. Everything, excluding military and violent actions, is viewed by them as ‘soft power’: economic assistance, debt relief, cultural and scientific cooperation, etc. This article analyzes the implementation of this concept in Chinese African policy in the areas of education, health, cultural and scientific relations. The method of comparative political analysis and the implementation of new historical sources (primarily, documents of international organizations) allowed the authors to identify the role of 'soft power' instruments in the formation of African elites that are interested in "South-South" format of cooperation. The substantive content of the Chinese ‘soft power’ concept has not received enough attention, and the authors reach a conclusion that Beijing uses actively the means of ‘soft power’ to create the positive image of China in Africa as a friendly country, ready to provide assistance and support to Africans. ‘Soft power’ is a significant instrument for implementation of China’s foreign policy objectives in Africa.

Keywords: scientific research, training professionals, people-to-people exchange, education, human resources, soft power, healthcare cooperation, cooperation, Africa, China

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2018.3.26863

Abstract: The subject of the research is the policy of the US President D. Trump's administration on the issues relating to conflict situations in Africa. When considering the general approaches of the United States to conflicts on the African continent, special attention is paid to the military, counter-terrorist and peacekeeping aspects of this policy. US efforts to implement this policy are illustrated by the examples of Nigeria, Libya, South Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Western Sahara. For a better understanding of the current situation in these countries, the author offers brief insights into their history. The author focused on the principle of historicism and used the comparative historical method of research, which allowed him to trace the similarities and differences in the approaches of D. Trump and his predecessor B. Obama in Africa. The African policy of President D. Trump's administration has not yet become the subject of special studies of domestic and foreign historians and political scientists. Continuity in the African affairs between B.Obama and D.Trump is not thoroughly studied. This work is based on a wide range of official American sources - statements by the President, documents of the US State Department and the African Command (AFRICOM). It was concluded that the African policy of the United States, as before, is carried out in the context of their hegemonic claims for world leadership, although during the administration of D. Trump the activity of Washington and its financial costs on the African continent have slightly decreased.

Keywords: Somalia, Southern Sudan, Libya, Nigeria, USA, Terrorism, Settlement, Conflicts, DRC, Western Sahara

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.1.17905

Abstract: The article is dedicated to the study of main aspects of the history and the here and now of Polonia in the East: Polish organizations, Polish-speaking media and the government support provided to them. The purpose of this research is to determine the role of the "Polonia" project in the implementation of Poland's eastern policy at the present time. The object of this study is the Polish diaspora in Russia and the CIS as a tool of soft power. Polonia is obviously a political project: Warsaw tries to maintain and strengthen its influence in the former Soviet republics with its help, using it as a primary resource loyal to the Polish diaspora. The methodological basis of the study is a systemic, structural and functional, comparative political approaches, the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, observation. The Ukrainian crisis of 2014 marked the beginning of the acute phase of the next stage of geopolitical confrontation that stretches from the Baltic to the Black Sea area, a zone of collision of interests of Russia and Poland for centuries. Official Warsaw strongly declares its "lack of interest" in the fate of land in Western Ukraine that belonged to the Polish state for centuries, while accusing Moscow of allegedly making secret proposals to "divide Ukraine." But the history of the previous five centuries suggests that the Polish elite have always considered the land located to the east of Poland, the main direction of its foreign expansion.

Keywords: geopolitics, Russia, World politics, Global instability, International relations, Diplomacy, Interests, State, Security, Poland

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.1.67659

Keywords: geopolitics, Russia, World politics, Global instability, International relations, Diplomacy, Interests, State, Security, Poland

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.13572

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66060

Abstract: Ever since the Peace of Westphalia, Europe maintained the inner balance of powers by keeping its core section soft. Peripheral powers like England, France, Denmark, (Sweden and Poland being later replaced by) Prussia, the Ottomans, Habsburgs and Russia have pressed and preserved the center of continental Europe as their own playground. At the same time, they kept extending their possessions overseas or, like Russia and the Ottomans, over the land corridors deeper into Asian and MENA proper. Once Royal Italy and Imperial Germany had appeared, the geographic core «hardened» and for the first time started to politico-militarily press onto peripheries, including the two European mega destructions, known as the two World Wars. Therefore, this new geopolitical reality caused a big security dilemma lasting from the 1814 Vienna congress up to Potsdam conference of 1945, being re-actualized again with the Berlin Wall destruction: How many Germanies and Italies should Europe have to preserve its inner balance and peace? At the time of Vienna Congress, there were nearly a dozen of Italophone states and over three dozens of Germanophone entities — 34 western German states + 4 free cities (Kleinstaaterei), Austria and Prussia. The post-WWII Potsdam conference concludes with only three Germanophone (+ Lichtenstein + Switzerland) and two Italophone states (+ Vatican). Than, 25 years ago, we concluded that one of Germanies was far too much to care to the future. Thus, it disappeared from the map overnight, and joined the NATO and EU — without any accession talks — instantly. West of Berlin, the usual line of narrative claims that the European 9/11 was an event of the bad socio-economic model being taken over by the superior one — just an epilogue of pure ideological reckoning. Consequently — the narrative goes on — the west (German) taxpayers have taken the burden. East of Berlin, people will remind you clearly that the German reunification was actually a unilateral takeover, an Anschluss, which has been paid by the bloody dissolutions affecting in several waves two of the three demolished multinational Slavic state communities. A process of brutal erosions that still goes on, as we see it in Ukraine today.

Keywords: conflict, foreign policy, the United States, geopolitics, political instability, diplomacy, government, interests, values, safety

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.14127

Abstract: This article is devoted to the acute problem that arises in Ukraine and around it, which creates new challenge and direct threats to national interests and security of RF. Scenery analysis of regional military-political environment on the basis of evolutionary simulation of international systems shows that it is a result of intentional western politics directed to transformation of Ukraine in its strategic springboard for pressing of Russia for the purpose transformation of Russia to the leading world power. At the same time on the world chessboard Ukraine remains small change in the hands of world actors in its struggle with Russia for global leadership. In case of Moscow victory in this conflict Russia will take a firm place on the world arena and add new geopolitical dimension to future multipolar world.

Keywords: scenery analysis, forecasting, evolutionary simulation, military-political environment, international systems, Ukrainian crisis, Russia, USA, EC, safety

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.1.66061

Abstract: This article is focused on the critical geopolitical situation inside and around Ukraine that presents new challenges and direct threats to national interests and security of Russian Federation. The scenario analysis of regional politico-military background and evolutional modeling of international systems, as exemplified by the Ukrainian crisis, demonstrates that this crisis is a direct result of Western country efforts intended straight to turn Ukraine into its strategic foothold for pressuring Russia in order to prevent it from becoming a leading world power. The methodological basis of this research is constituted of systemic, structural-functional, comparative-political approaches, and the methods of analysis, synthesis, observation and modeling. Ukraine, as a piece on the Global geopolitical chessboard, is still a small piece for lead actors of international politics in their antagonism towards Russia in a struggle for global and regional leadership. If Moscow wins in this conflict, Russia will have a solid spot among the great powers, and will fortify its influence on the international arena considerably, giving the new, multipolar world a new geopolitical dimension.

Keywords: scenario analysis, prediction, evolution modeling, politico-military background, international systems, Ukrainian crisis, Russia, USA, EU, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2014.1.13520

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2014.1.65848

Abstract: Speculations over the alleged bipolar world of tomorrow (the so-called G-2, China vs. the US), should not be an Asian dilemma. It is primarily a concern of the West that, after all, overheated China in the first place with its (outsourced business) investments. Hence, despite a distortive noise about the possible future G-2 world, the central security problem of Asia remains the same: an absence of any pan-continental multilateral setting on the world’s largest continent. The Korean peninsula like no other Asian theater pays a huge prize because of it.Why is it so? Asia’s success story? Well, it might be easier than it seems: Neither Europe nor Asia has any alternative. The difference is that Europe well knows there is no alternative — and therefore is multilateral. Asia thinks it has an alternative — and therefore is strikingly bilateral, while stubbornly residing enveloped in economic egoisms. No wonder that Europe is/will be able to manage its decline, while Asia is (still) unable to capitalize its successes. Asia — and particularly its economically most (but not yet politico-militarily) advanced region, East Asia — clearly does not accept any more the lead of the post-industrial and post-Christian Europe, but is not ready for the post-West world. How to draw the line between the recent and still unsettled EU/EURO crisis and By contrasting and comparing genesis of multilateral security structures in Europe with those currently existing in Asia, we can easily remark the following: Prevailing security structures in Asia are bilateral and mostly asymmetric, while Europe enjoys multilateral, balanced and symmetric setups (American and African continents too). These partial settings are more instruments of containment than of engagement. Containment will never result in the integration through cooperation. On contrary, it will trigger a confrontation which feeds the antagonisms and preserves alienation on the stage. Therefore, irrespective to the impressive economic growth, no Asian century will emerge with deeply entrenched divisions on the continent, where the socio-political currents of the Korean peninsula are powerful daily reminder that the creation of such a pan-Asian institution is an urgent must.

Keywords: international relations, foreign, political conflicts, political stability, Asia, interests, values, security.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2019.4.31457

Abstract: The subject of this research is the analysis of evolution of representations on the content of Indo-Pacific concept in the official discourse of number of foreign countries – the largest beneficiaries of advancement of the Indo-Pacific idea. The author traces the history of emergence of the term, clarifies the chronological and geographical benchmarks indicating the trajectory of entrance of the Indo-Pacific idea into the information space, as well as notes its conflictogenic risks. The conclusion is made that the actions of the United States on advancing the Indo-Pacific idea alongside cognominal strategy may be assessed as a semantic policy, one of the instruments of a complex set of measures aimed at changing strategic balance in the corresponding region of the world. It is demonstrated that due to different, at times diametrically opposed views of the entities formally constituting the Indo-Pacific region, related to the concept and objectives of this geostrategic and geoeconomic project, the development prospects of Indo-Pacific remain obscure. The author highlights that not only the origins of ideas on the Indo-Pacific as a geostrategic construct, but also the semantic policy methods of Japan and the United States, date back to heritage of Karl Haushofer and the times of the World War II. The author provides development projections of the situation in megaregion.

Keywords: Shinzo Abe, Russia, International Policy, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Indo-Pacific Region, USA, Australia, India, ASEAN, Symbolic Policy

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.2.18324

Abstract: By the means of historical reconstruction the author inquires into the causes and the nature of the 1967-1970 civil war in Nigeria, which was one of the bloodiest conflicts on the African continent of the post-colonial period. A comprehensive analysis of historical sources, including media publications, witness recollections, investigations by the press, interviews with prominent politicians and diplomats, allows to shed light on the motives, both obvious and obscure, that drove both sides of this bloody conflict. The author focuses attention on defining the role of the United Kingdom, France, the USA, Soviet Union and certain African countries (such as the Republic of Gabon, and the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire) in igniting the civil war in the republic of Nigeria. The author also makes an accent on the effects of the Françafrique geopolitical doctrine in this conflict. The methodological basis of this work includes the systemic, structural-functional, comparative political approaches, as well as the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, observation.This work points out the firm connection between the events in Nigeria and the genocide of the Igbo people in the Biafra region of Nigeria. The author substantiates a conclusion that the Élysée Palace supported the separatists of Biafra for three years, offering logistical and military support, as well as political and diplomatic patronage to the self-proclaimed Republic of Biafra in order to protect the economic and political interests of Paris in this oil-rich region. The author considers that the civil war in Nigeria was a prominent sign of the hidden struggle between France, on one hand, and the Anglo-Saxon side (the USA, the UK). The author also substantiates the conclusion that the aid that Soviet Union offered Nigeria's federal government was intended as a means to spread the influence of communist ideology to the countries of tropical Africa. This research was performed with the financial support of Russian humanitarian science foundation, project № 15-01-00363 "Foreign intervention into third world country affairs during the Cold War period: multi-layered analysis experience".

Keywords: France, Biafra, Global politics, Global instability, International relations, Diplomacy, Interests, State, Security, Risks

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.2.68394

Keywords: France, Biafra, Global politics, Global instability, International relations, Diplomacy, Interests, State, Security, Risks

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.2.20972

Abstract: The subject of research is the dynamics of France's African policy in the post-colonial period. The focus of attention is given to consideration of the complex phenomenon of "Françafrique", which is a special system of clientelist relations between the Fifth Republic and its former overseas territories, the military-political mechanism to monitor the implementation of the French neo-colonial policies on the African continent. The author considers the peculiarities of the evolution of the "Françafrique" policy in the periods of government of various leaders of France: Charles de Gaulle, Georges Pompidou, Jacques d'Estaing, Francois Mitterrand, Jacques Chirac, Sarkozy, F.Hollande. The method of historical reconstruction which is used in this article permits to identify the factors which determined the characteristics of the African policy of the Elysee Palace during the reign of different presidents. The author concludes that the French neo-colonialism, above all, is born of the "energy hunger" of the Fifth Republic, the need to provide the raw materials for the numerous and powerful nuclear power plants, which cover about 75% of the energy needs of the country. France is ready to have a strategic alliance with the USA and other NATO countries because new players appeared the African market of raw materials, especially China.

Keywords: Françafrique, neo-colonialism, Africa, France, conflict, intervention, military expedition, energy shortage, military alliance, NATO

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.2.68395

Keywords: Françafrique, neo-colonialism, Africa, France, conflict, intervention, military expedition, energy shortage, military alliance, NATO

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.3.21969

Abstract: The object of this research is the effort of the United Nations and the U.N. Security Council to solve the issues of international security. The subject of the paper is the role of U.N. and U.N. Security Council in conflict resolution in Africa and Arabic East. Special attention is paid to the position of Russia as a Permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, and its contribution to conflict resolution and the fight against terrorist threat. The task of this study is to evaluate positive and negative aspects of the work of this international organization, which remains a unique tool for the prevention and resolution of conflicts for 70 years, by analyzing its steps in overcoming challenges and threats in a given region. The methodological basis of this research includes comparative political approach, the methods of analysis and synthesis. The scientific novelty of this work is that, despite the fact that the U.N. has been a subject of many publications, this particular aspect of its peacekeeping efforts and Russia’ role in these efforts hasn’t been in the spotlight of attention. The analysis of this topic is relevant in light of certain state's attempts to regulate crises by force, bypassing the Security Council and the U.N. Charter leading to the escalation of violence. The acuteness of this research is defined by the fact that U.N. peacekeeping efforts often become criticized. The author draws the conclusion that, although the U.N. manages to achieve its main objective to prevent a global disaster, its efforts in regional conflict resolution may not always be efficient largely due to the different geopolitical priorities of member countries. This demands necessary steps to be taken in order to raise the efficiency of U.N. S.C., to improve its ability to meet the demands of regional security.

Keywords: international security, conflict, Africa, Arabic countries, Syria, terrorism, Russia, international cooperation, Security Council, U.N.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.3.68607

Keywords: international security, conflict, Africa, Arabic countries, Syria, terrorism, Russia, international cooperation, Security Council, U.N.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.3.16067

Abstract: Using the method of historical reconstruction, the author reveals the essence of the French neo-colonial policies in relation to Gabon after World War II. Comprehensive analysis of the less well-known historical sources (materials of legal and journalist investigations, testimonies of well-known politicians and diplomats) allows to show the reader the fundamental reliance of the political elite of this small but oil-rich African country on purely pragmatic interests of the owners of the Elysee Palace. This dependence is based, primarily, on the oil and uranium needs of the Fifth Republic. The methodological basis of the research includes the systemic, structural and functional, comparative political approaches, methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, observation. The author reached a substantiated conclusion that the implementation mechanisms of such policies are typical of latent foreign policies of France: it includes creating corruption schemes, arranging secret agreements between political, military and business elites of the two countries. The Fifth Republic brings puppet leaders to power (and, if necessary, and keeps them in power), and they, in turn provide the absolute preference of Paris in the economic, political and military cooperation.

Keywords: interests, democracy, color revolutions, hybrid war, state, France, society, politics, "Franceafrique", security

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.3.66893

Keywords: interests, democracy, color revolutions, hybrid war, state, France, society, politics, "Franceafrique", security

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.3.16181

Abstract: This article explores the situation is Casamance (a southern province of Senegal, which gravitates towards Guinea-Bissau, both culturally and historically), which, across several decades, is a major influencing factor. The author's attention is focused on political, ideological and cultural determinants of the tensions between the two countries. The main cause for those tensions, according to the author, are fundamental differences of the ideological values, and thus, political orientations of the ruling elites of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. The intensity of the Casamance conflict, according to the author, is explained by the transparency of the state borders, and the social, cultural, linguistic and confessional kinship of the tribal groups (Diola, Balante, Mandingo), living in adjacent territories. Using the method of historical reconstruction, the author analyzes the dynamics of the relations between the two neighboring countries of the West African region in the context of the prolonged conflict in Casamance - the southern Senegalese province, bordering on the Guinea-Bissau and claims to secession. The author concludes that the nature of relations between the two countries largely depended on their domestic situation: Guinea-Bissau, which is constantly in a "fever" of military coups and leadership changes, has demonstrated an inconsistent position towards the separatist movement in Casamance. However, the mutual problems with security and control over the border areas of the two countries, the leaders were forced to overcome ideological differences and cooperate against the separatists.

Keywords: Africa, Casamance, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, state, France, society, politics, border conflict, separatism

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.3.66894

Keywords: Africa, Casamance, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, state, France, society, politics, border conflict, separatism

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2017.2.23393

Abstract: The article is devoted to the special role of the Russian Federation and the PRC in political and energy cooperation in Central Asia in the present situation of growing competition for the control over oil and gas regions, which is becoming one of the key conditions for political and economic influence in the world. The subject of the study is the formation of the elements of a potential "competitive field" in the political and energy spheres of the RF-PRC relations in the Central Asian region. The author considers aspects of the problem, such as the dynamics of Russian-Chinese interests in the region, the conceptual foundations of the regional energy policy of Russia and China, the implementation of the concept of "soft power" in its Chinese interpretation, which finds its continuation in the idea of social harmony - one of the main state goals of the PRC. Particular attention is paid to a multi-level analysis of the political and energy set of interests in this region. The issues of safety in the implementation of oil and gas projects in the Caspian sea area and the Central Asia region are being addressed. Over the course of the research, the author used the periodization method. The use of this method allowed the author to trace the dynamics of Russian-Chinese interests in the region. The political methods used in this study include SWOT analysis. This method was used to review the implementation of the national energy strategies of the Russian Federation and the PRC in the region. It allowed to provide a classification of the models of energy cooperation between Russia and China in the CAR, to identify potential and existing challenges and threats to the national interests of Russia and China during the implementation of energy projects. The author was the first to draw attention to the substance of the Russian-Chinese political-energy "competitive field" in the hydrocarbon sphere in Central Asia. The author turns to the relatively unexplored problem of determining the nature and mechanisms of the influence of international political factors on the process of realizing the energy (hydrocarbon) interests of Russia and China in Central Asia.