DOI: 10.7256/2454-0684.2019.1.28514

Abstract: The subject of this research is modelling of a number of demographic parameters using the method of fuzzy autoregression as a tool of sociological studies. The object of this research is the dynamics of incidence rate of diabetes, blood circulatory system diseases and malignant tumors over the recent 15-25 years. This work determines the parameters of mathematical models or time sequences of the number of newly registered cases of diverse nosology. The conclusion is made on the need for development of targeted healthcare programs at the federal and regional levels. The main instrument of analysis is the structuring of forecasting mathematical models of changes in the incidence rate of diseases using the method of fuzzy autoregression and algorithm of MatLab system language. The methods of fuzzy nonlinear regression and autoregression have been applied in technical and natural sciences for over 40 years. In the area of social sciences, similar methods have not been used until recently, therefore their application in forecasting of demographic parameters, including the distribution of diseases is innovative.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0684.2019.1.28685

Abstract: The subject of this research is the analysis of functioning of the Internet communication platforms. Special attention is given to possibility of building typology of the Internet communication platforms. The author assumes that the meticulous analysis of their functioning mechanism and ways of interaction of the users can help structuring a fairly precise typology. Therefore, the author examines such topics as the specificity of Internet platforms, methods of creating behavioral rules, and specificity of identities presented on the Internet. Methodological foundation is Niklas Luhmann’s concept of social systems and methodology of case study that allows analyzing functionality of the Internet communication platforms. The main conclusion of the conducted research consists in possibility of structuring the typology of the Internet communication platforms based on consideration of the production mechanism and functioning of communication rules on the platforms, and mechanism of formation and presentation of identity. The four types of communication platforms are determined: 1) high level of the rigidity of formal rules, strict binding of virtual identities to the offline; 2) low level of the rigidity of formal rules; fairly strict binding of virtual identities to the offline; 3) low level of the rigidity of formal rules; moderate binding of virtual identities to the offline; 4) high level of the rigidity of formal rules, moderate binding of virtual identities to the offline. Communication platforms of the 1st, 2nd and 4th types are tied to the offline reality, and thus manifest as its addition. Communication platform of 3rd type stands against the offline reality and may enter into a conflict with the latter, which can lead to degradation of personality.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0684.2019.1.27568

Abstract: The subject of this research is the factor of election of D. Trump in the development of Euro-Atlantic community; the object is the evolution of Euro-Atlantic geo-civilization. The authors examine the characteristic features of the Euro-Atlantic community, principles of the so-called Euro-Atlantic solidarity, theoretical views upon the problem of globalism of liberal democracy, distribution of liberal democracy and decrease of its influence, foreign policy strategies of the United States, their practical implementation,  cooperation of the states belonging to the Euro-Atlantic geo-civilizational circle, as well as the states regarded to the various geo-civilizational realms. The study is based on the geo-civilizational approach for comprehensive analysis of the external and internal characteristics of the large territory (geo-civilizational realm), which comprise the sustainable elements of its evolution and allow demonstrating the interdependence of the sociopolitical development upon the establishment of international formats of cooperation between the “affined” from geo-civilizational perspective countries and shift of the internal liberal-democratic ideology outwards. The following conclusions were made: liberal ideology is reflected in the approaches of liberal hegemony; the so-called liberal values predetermined the formation of the unified liberal-democratic world, the affiliation to which depends on their recognition; currently, there can be observed not only the emergence of the new hybrid form of liberalism, but also the revival of the ideas of nationalism and traditionalism; the future of liberalism in many ways depends on its positions with the United States after the election of D. Trump as the Presidents, who already started amending its interpretation, mostly within the framework of foreign policy. The scientific novelty lies in the statement that the problem of liberal-democratic globalism is examined through the prism of geo-civilizational approach.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0684.2019.1.28634

Abstract: The subject of this research is the analysis of population assessment of the risks and security threats in the following regions of the Russian Federation: Altai Krai, Amur Oblast, Astrakhan Oblast, Volgograd Oblast, Tyva Republic, and Khabarovsk Krai. In the course of this study, the authors determine the main threats to social security of the Russian State, as well as the key social issues of separate regions; acquire the population assessments of personal security and content with the different aspect of life. Special attention is given to identification of the peculiarities of perception of personal security in the context of socioeconomic wellbeing of the territory. The main research methods are the analysis of statistical data and questionnaire-based survey conducted in 2018 in six regions of the Russian Federation. According to the acquired data, the state of security is determined on one hand by the threats to social security of national scale, typical to all subjects; and on the other hand – the specific problems of social security of a particular region, substantiated by its unique geopolitical and socioeconomic status. The materials can be applies in forecasting and modelling of the social risks and security threats in the modern Russian society.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0684.2019.1.28336

Abstract: The subject of this research is the career strategies of university students in the field of “State and Municipal Administration”, and how they transform in the course of studying. The author analyzes the research works dedicated to building a career by the university graduates during their education and after the graduation, noting down the possible scenarios of transformation of the career strategies. Using the sociological methods (questionnaire) and comparative analysis, the author describes the causes of transformations of career strategies of the indicated group of student youth. The conducted sociological survey allows determining that in process of receiving higher education, the students are affected by the various factors, which later play a pivotal role in formation of their career strategies. Therefore, the specified scenarios of transformation of career strategies allow structuring the education process in such way that the risks of negative influence upon the establishment of the aforementioned strategies will be minimized.