Статья 'Сценарный анализ в управлении региональной безопасностью' - журнал 'Вопросы безопасности' - NotaBene.ru
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Scenario analysis in regional security management

Shul'ts Vladimir Leopol'dovich

Doctor of Philosophy

Head of the Department, Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences

119333, Russia, Moscow, Fotievoi Street 2, building #1

support@e-notabene.ru
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Kul'ba Vladimir Vasil'evich

Doctor of Technical Science

Head of Laboratory, Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences

117997, Russia, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya Street 65

kulba@ipu.ru
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Shelkov Aleksei Borisovich

PhD in Technical Science

Leading Scientific Associate, Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences

117997, Russia, Moscow Oblast, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya Street 65, office #407

abshelkov@gmail.com
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Chernov Igor' Viktorovich

PhD in Technical Science

Leading Scientific Associate, Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Science

117997, Russia, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya Street 65

ichernov@gmail.com
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 

DOI:

10.7256/2409-7543.2016.3.19157

Review date:

14-05-2016


Publish date:

14-06-2016


Abstract: The paper is devoted to the methodological and practical problems of regional security management improvement in the context of globalization, intensification of contradictions between the Western countries and Russia, and the instability in the global economic system. The authors analyze the main external and internal threats to regional security; demonstrate the results of analysis of the main peculiarities of regional security management including those related to the Russian regions development disparity. The study considers the main principles of social stability monitoring organization, and the mechanisms of scenario analysis application in a region’s socio-economic development management, and provision of its protection from external and internal threats to social stability. The paper demonstrates the results of the scenario analysis of the developed multigraph model of regional security management and social stability provision in the context of globalization. Problems of regional security management are solved on the base of the methodology of regional security management effectiveness assessment based on the scenario approach and simulation modeling using the set of functional signed graphs. The analysis shows that the main peculiarity of regional security management in the context of globalization is the need for a coordinated solution of two basic sets of tasks: provision of sustainable socio-economic development of a region and its protection from external and internal threats to social stability. The scenario analysis use for regional security management helps detect the threats to social stability, ensure a complex assessment of their prospective danger, and assess the effectiveness of measures of threats prevention. 


Keywords: social stability, extremism prevention, external threat, internal threat, information impact, simulation modeling, signed graphs, scenario analysis, management, regional security
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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