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Theoretical and Applied Economics

Applying the concepts of behavioral finance to cost research of hotel and catering enterprises

Bogatyrev Semen

PhD in Economics

Docent, the department of Corporate Finances and Corporate Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

101000, Russia, Moscow, Malyi Zlatoustinskii Pereulok 7, building #1, office #319a

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The article illustrates the application of the concepts of behavioral finance on the example of the industry featuring a big number of mergers and take-overs. The discrepancy between the fundamental value and stock valuations is determined on the basis of information about hotels and public catering enterprises. The research practically demonstrates how to take into account the behavioral factors underlying the valuation of enterprises of the sector. The research uses different behavioral models wchich are described in the literature on behavioral finance: the model of "sentimental investor" of Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny; the model of arrogant informed traders of Daniel, Hirshleyfera and Subramanyama; the model of confrontation between fundamental investors and traders of momentum; models based on preferences; the shift–to–risk model. The action algorithm (which was, inter alia, described in the NotaBene publications) describing how to interact with the Bloomberg information system has permitted to get data on the fundamental value of companies and their quoted market prices. The mutual deviation is graphically shown. The limitations faced by the analyst applying behavioral models in practice are investigated. The limitations are connected with the fact that for building continuous, high-quality graphics of the fundamental and actual costs, one needs both continuous information arrays of market prices and analyst predictions. To overcome these limitations, the article suggests to apply the behavioral asset pricing model (BAPM). For the first time in Russia the research makes use of the latest developments in behavioral finance to study cost deviations. The research first determines the theoretical market value of the acquiree and then compares it with the actual proposal for sale of the company. Since 2011, the author has accumulated a large file of research findings. As a result of many years of observations, the author has revealed an interesting fact: the discrepancy between the market value determined by the analyst and the price the company offers in mergers or takeovers may be reversed. Namely, in 2011 and 2012 the offer price exceeded the theoretical value, and in 2013 and 2014 it became less than the offer price. This fact has been pointed out by cost consultants who conduct mergers and takeovers.

Keywords: behavioral finance, behavioral assessment models, fundamental value, market value, assets assessment model, behavior discount rate, investors, traders of momentum, stock market, sale of the enterprise
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

Bogatyrev S.Yu. Issledovanie rossiiskogo fondovogo rynka na osnove povedencheskikh finansov // NB: Ekonomika, trendy i upravlenie. — 2014.-№ 3.-S.97-141. DOI: 10.7256/2306-4595.2014.3.11665. URL: http://e-notabene.ru/etc/article_11665.html
Bogatyrev S.Yu. Primenenie noveishikh informatsionnykh sistem v rabote stoimostnogo analitika // NB: Kibernetika i programmirovanie. — 2014.-№ 2.-S.88-126. DOI: 10.7256/2306-4196.2014.2.11736. URL: http://e-notabene.ru/kp/article_11736.html
H. Kent Baker, John R. Nofsinger (2010), Behavioral finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets // Hoboken, New Jersey: JohnWiley & Sons, Inc. pp. 236-244
Nicholas Barberis, Andrei Shleifer, Robert Vishny, A model of investor sentiment // Journal of Financial Economics No. 49 (1998) p. 307-343
Lee, C., Shleifer, A., Thaler, R., 1991. Investor sentiment and the closed-end fund puzzle // Journal of Finance 46, p. 75-110
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