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Publications of Timoshenko Andrei Anatol'evich
National Security, 2023-3
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V., Timoshenko A.A. - Scenario Methods for Assessing the Efficiency of Legal Regulation of the Socio-Economic Systems Development Processes under Uncertainty pp. 1-31

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2023.3.40444

Abstract: The article deals with the study of methodological problems of increasing the effectiveness of legislative regulation of Russian society and the state socio-economic development processes in the face of severe sanctions pressure from Western countries led by the United States. A complex of problems of improving the quality of law-making processes is considered. To assess the effectiveness of legal norms, it is proposed to use criteria and mechanisms for evaluating their efficiency, reflecting the degree of the goals set achievement in the process of their development, taking into account the costs and expended resources of various types. To solve the problems of advanced assessment of the developed legal norms effectiveness, it is proposed to use the scenario analysis methodology, which provides the possibility of information support and assessment of the quality of regulatory and legal decisions development and implementation within the framework of lawmaking processes. The approach proposed for solving the problems under consideration is based on the development and study of simulation models that allow analyzing a wide class of processes and phenomena in the legal, socio-political and socio-economic spheres. The results obtained in the course of the study allow to conclude that it is expedient to introduce the scenario-forecasting expertise procedures into the practice of drafting legislative acts, their analysis and efficiency evaluation (including the assessment of the effectiveness of law enforcement practice), which will complement the set of currently used procedures for the comprehensive examination of draft laws (legal, juridical-technical, criminological, anti-corruption, linguistic, etc.).
National Security, 2019-4
Shul'ts V.L., Bochkarev S.A., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V., Timoshenko A.A. - Analysis of the problems of the transformation of systems of legislative regulation and law enforcement in the conditions of digitalization and the methods of assessing the efficiency of decision-making pp. 19-74

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2019.4.30149

Abstract: This work is dedicates to the methodological and applied problems of increasing efficiency of the transformation management process of the systems of legislative regulation and law enforcement in the conditions of the developed information society. The article presents the results of analysis of the impact of digitalization processes upon the various aspects of human life, social development and government institutions. The authors examine the issues associated with growing vulnerability of the national socioeconomic system in the context of globalization are examined; as well as conduct the analysis of the key vectors and peculiarities of the transformation of social relations alongside the problems of their legislative regulation brought on by digitalization. The article also considers the tasks for improvement of the principles, methods, functions and techniques in the work of the law enforcement system in terms of the development of information society and the resulting new threats to social security. For increasing the efficiency of solving applied and practical tasks related to transformation of the systems of legislative regulation and law enforcement in the conditions of digitalization, the authors propose using the methodology of scenario analysis that allows the possibility of information support and quality assessment of preparing and making decisions within the framework of managing the indicated processes. The utmost efficiency of using scenario techniques is reached in the process of preparation and assessment of the outcome of strategic solutions as it allows analyzing the alternative options in development of the situation within society and the state in the conditions of imperfect information and uncertainty. In solving tactical problems related to ensuring social stability, it seems reasonable to implement the aforementioned techniques in the process of preparation and assessment of the effectiveness of preventative and prompt measures of counteracting emerging threats. This work is financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of scientific research project No.18-29-16151 “Development of the Methods of Managing Transformation of Law in the Conditions of Digital Technology”.
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