Abstract: The object of this research is the activity of law enforcement structures on the struggle against forceful action in the maritime space; while the subject is the methodology of substantiation of the required effort and funding for prevention and control of forceful action. The author applies the probabilistic conflict model based on the principles of combat (hard management, combination if fire and maneuver, control over the situation using observation and reconnaissance). For evaluation of parameters of the model and its verification, the author has examined the descriptions of the actions committed by pirates and terrorists in successful or unsuccessful attempts of causing damage to people and tangibles in the maritime space. The article carries out a comparative analysis of capabilities of the law enforcement structures and pirates (terrorists). A number of examples demonstrates the possible application of mathematical methods of justifying decisions to implement one or another type of means of fighting against unlawful actions in the maritime space. The prevention of forceful actions is based on achieving by the military and police watercrafts of the high chance of neutralization of the pirates and terrorists. The application of the presented methodology by the law enforcement structures provides quantitative grounds for increasing the efficiency of their actions.