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Cybernetics and programming
Reference:

Application of a dynamic model for the coordination of general and private interests of sustainable development at the regional level

Gorbaneva Ol'ga Ivanovna

Doctor of Technical Science

Associate Professor, Department of Applied Mathematics and Programming, Southern Federal University

344090, Russia, Rostovskaya oblast', g. Rostov-Na-Donu, ul. Mil'chakova, 8a, kab. 212

gorbaneva@mail.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Murzin Anton Dmitrievich

PhD in Economics

Docent, the department of Development Control of Spatial and Economic Systems, Southern Federal University

344090, Russia, Rostovskaya oblast', g. Rostov-Na-Donu, ul. Stachki, 200/1, kab. 210A

admurzin@yandex.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Anopchenko Tat'yana Yur'evna

Doctor of Economics

Rector's Advisor, Smolensk State University

214000, Russia, Smolenskaya oblast', g. Smolensk, ul. Przheval'skogo, 4

davidova@mail.ru

DOI:

10.25136/2644-5522.2020.1.33241

Review date:

16-06-2020


Publish date:

03-07-2020


Abstract: The article presents the results of approbation of the previously presented dynamic socio-ecological-economic model of the synergetic development of individual entities within the South Russian macro-region, which allows to harmonize the general and private interests of each region. The model is investigated on the materials of the Southern Federal District. The identification of the model for the macro-region of the Southern Federal District was carried out on the basis of the data of the website of the State Statistics Committee, which are in the public domain. For identification, the time series of 2005, 2010, 2015-2017 were taken. This choice is explained by both theoretical reasons (a step of five years was chosen for the long-term data and one year for the near-term data), and empirical (the data of the crisis periods of 2008 and 2012, as well as the years nearest to them, were not taken). As a result of the study, several controversial conclusions were drawn regarding the strategies of the subjects' behavior. Calculations show, in particular, that in the current conditions it is not profitable for any of the regions to develop its own production sphere; the optimal strategy for each of them is only to increase consumption in the hope of the production activity of neighboring regions. In view of the choice of this rational strategy by all regions at the same time, a general degradation of the production sphere and stagnation of the regional economy are predicted. At the same time, it was revealed that a further reduction in production becomes unprofitable for almost all lagging regions (the republics of the Southern Federal District), while the leading regions (the regions of the Southern Federal District) remain profitable for production inaction.


Keywords: interregional interaction, management of regional development, dynamic model, combining of interests, private interests, public interests, modeling, production activity in the region, macroregion, SFD subjects
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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