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Cybernetics and programming
Reference:

Application package MultiMIR: architecture and appliance

Urazaeva Tatiana Alfredovna

PhD in Economics

Head of the Department of Information Systems in the economy, Volga State University of Technology

424032, Russia, respublika Marii El, g. Ioshkar-Ola, ul. Pavlenko, 60

bor1@mari-el.com

 

 

DOI:

10.7256/2306-4196.2014.5.12962

Review date:

02-10-2014


Publish date:

16-10-2014


Abstract: Evaluation of risks of system development is an urgent task for a for a variety of disciplines such as economics and sociology, technology and ecology, the system studied at the intersection of different disciplines. Often the parameters of such systems are discrete, set of possible states is bounded. The application package “MultiMIR” was designed to evaluate risks of development in such systems. An important difference of “MultiMIR” from other application is in achievement of polynomial computational complexity for some classes of systems, while most analogues offer only exponential complexity. The article describes: purpose of the application, main ideas used as a basis for algorithms, application architecture. The author gives an overview of ways of using the application. The conceptual basis of the theory used in the development of algorithms implemented in “MultiMIR” is in theoretical probabilistic approach. As a specific mathematical apparatus the author has chosen formalism of theory of multisets, which, in author’s opinion, has the richest expressive possibilities for the study in the described the subject area. As a programming system used in the development of the first version of the application the author used VBA-subsystem office with Microsoft Office. The selection of the programming system is dictated by the features and preferences of the primary target of the package: banking and financial analysts. Using “MultiMIR” allowed for the first time to provide accurate calculation of such non-linear measures of risk as expected utility, distorted probability measure, "Value at Risk", and so on for medium and large homogeneous portfolios term financial instruments without involving time-consuming analytical methods. Unlike traditionally used for this purpose Monte Carlo method, approached based on the described above application allows obtaining an exact solution using a comparable amount of CPU resource. “MultiMIR” application can also be used for verification of reliability of the results obtained using Monte Carlo methods considered classical in the financial risk management. 


Keywords: system, visual modeling , risk, risk process, measure of risk, Value at Risk, VaR, homogeneous portfolio , term financial instruments, Monte Carlo method
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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