Historical informatics - rubric Historical process modeling
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MAIN PAGE > Journal "Historical informatics" > Rubric "Historical process modeling"
Historical process modeling
Zhukov D.S., Lyamin S.K. - Revolution in the Internet: Self-Organized Criticality Theory to Study Protest Movements pp. 11-43


Abstract: The article gives an example of the way self-organized criticality (SOC) theory can be used to study a number of nonlinear effects in social media, protest movement sharp rises in particular. The authors describe the key ideas of the SOC theory and methods to identify pink noise as a SOC attribute. The research object is an associated total of Facebook communities which lent informational and organizational support to the impeachment of Brazil’s president Dilma Rousseff. Chronological frames of the work is January 2015 – august 2016. It has been shown that net activity of some communities understudy was a pink noise within a number of periods. SOC systems can demonstrate explosive activity increase that is the inner potential of systems for self-destruction and/or qualitative transformation. The protest social network studied had key features to generate informational avalanches – fast and big explosions of information creation, transmission and copying. The authors name facts supporting the idea that SOC advent in the nets is caused by mass street actions (violent as well). One parameter of the numerical series studied is a power law factor which can be indicative for network diagnostics, in particular, for revealing their potential for spontaneous informational avalanches.
Shpirko S. - The Variation Approach to Model Medieval Distribution of Population (the Example of Derevskaya Pyatina of Novgorodskaya Land in the Late 15th Century) pp. 22-38


Abstract: Mathematical modeling is increasingly popular to study spatial distribution of population. This trend is determined by the necessity to study the dynamics of population quantity and density, reconstruct lacking data, search for population displacement factors and evaluate their influence on this process. The current study develops the model describing the system of centers distribution (the settlement structure) of the one-level hierarchy. Such a modeling aims at searching for basic factors and evaluating their influence on the process, associating optimum parameters which characterize the system of centers distribution. The model developed by the author is based on the innovative approach of S.M. Gusein-Zade which makes it possible to describe the regularities in the location (distribution) of heterogeneous settlements and other centers on the territories. The variations calculus methods applied as well as the concept of Pareto optimality allows one to find parameters of the existing systems of centers location and quantitatively describe the phenomena occurring in them. The model has been tested to study a medieval rural settlement and has proven adequate and correct.It has been demonstrated that the process of free population displacement was caused by two counterbalancing factors: a centripetal one (concentration of settlements around their centers) and a centrifugal one (displacement of population near the farmland).
Anisimova D. - Retro Forecasting of Saint Petersburg Stock Exchange Indices (1914-1915): ARIMA Model Test pp. 25-32


Abstract: The article describes how the author forms a counterfactual model forecasting the dynamics of Saint Petersburg Stock Exchange index after July 1914 before the war which radically changed the factor role of prewar dynamics. The author hypothesizes that the decreasing trend of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index during the last prewar year was caused by internal economic factors which could determine further dynamics of the index when no war is assumed. To test this hypothesis the author has developed ARIMA statistical model within the R software environment. This model is an integrated model of autoregressive moving average which is an extension of the ARMA model for nonstationary time series. The counterfactual model has demonstrated that in case the influence of the pre-war period factors continued, the dynamics of the index over the next year would tend to decrease, even if the war did not begin. Thus, one can speak of the beginning recession phase in the cyclical development of Russian industry in 1913.
Slonov V.N., Kocherzhenko O.V., Shabanov V.L. - Archeological Cultural Type: The Problem of Life Cycle for Archeological Artifacts System (Evolution of Ceramics within the Eastern Europes Steppe Belt in the Bronze Age) pp. 28-37


Abstract: This work crowns a series of studies addressing the forms of ceramics within the Eastern Europe’s steppe belt in the Bronze Age. These studies aimed at searching for the internal structural arrangement of complexes of ceramics forms as a complicated system with its own laws of development. The form of a vessel was represented as a set of quantitative markers describing its profile. The study covers vessel complexes belonging to Srubnaya, Sintashtinskaya, Dono-Volzhskaya Abashevskaya cultures, cultural formations of KMK circle as well as Pokrovskiy cultural type. When studying complexes of ceramics forms the authors employed cluster analysis with subsequent consideration of the group size correlation diagram and non-compactness ratio of the groups. Structural arrangement of complexes of ceramics forms has been found for a number of cases. The first arrangement corresponds to a reverse power (“hyperbolic”) law dependence on the correlation diagram whereas the second one corresponds to a logarithmic dependence. For complexes with such structural organization the term "archaeological cultural type" (ACT) is proposed. It is shown that ACT has its own "life cycle" consisting of three periods. These are the advent, the hey-day and the decay. 
Zhukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. - The Study of Peasant Disturbances Intensity in European Russia in the Second Half of the 19th Century by Means of Self-Organized Criticality Theory pp. 38-51


Abstract: The article presents the results of analysis of long time data series reflecting the intensity of peasant disturbances in various guberniyas of European Russia in the second half of the 19th century by means of self-organized criticality theory . The types of peasant protests are presented that depend on the regularity of protest intensity fluctuations in different guberniyas. It has been found that the population density and the average allotment of land exerted the most powerful influence on the formation of protest potential. A hypothesis has been proposed and substantiated that the presence of pink noise in changes of peasant disturbances intensity means that most of regional communities were in a critical state. This demonstrates serious risks of system stability throughout the period understudy. Inner social environment and structural features existed that led to leaping fluctuations and unexpected increase of peasant disturbances. Regional communities were prone to uprisings under the influence of quite usual factors.
Zhukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. - Modeling of Demographic Processes in the Late Soviet Village: 1959-1989 pp. 43-73


Abstract: The article presents the results of modeling demographic strategies of 1.5 thousand Tambovskaya Guberniya rural settlements in 1959-1989. The authors consider methodological and tool aspects related to the formation of a fractal model and computer experiments based on it. They have determined the values of governing factors affecting the formation of collective goal-oriented ideas about the expected migration rate and the rate of population's natural increase or decline. The results obtained can arguably be extended to a few similar regions of Russia. This study is sequel to previous works where models for the period from the middle of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century have been set forth. Modeling has demonstrated that there are two groups of settlements: migration donors and migration recipients. During the period understudy the rural population (when setting their life goals) relied mostly on migration which evidently was a depressing agent for natural increase. Nevertheless, the majority of peasant societies were open to a certain natural increase..
Basaeva E.K., Kamenetsky E.S., Khosayeva Z.K. - Mathematical Model of the Strike Movement in Russia in the Late 19th Early 20th Centuries pp. 52-62


Abstract: Dynamics of the strike movement in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries is analyzed. Multiple statistical data on workers’ fighting for their rights in this period provides for effective use of mathematical modeling to better understand the causes for workers’ protest activity increase that was especially high in 1903. In particular, one can evaluate the role of activists in the strike movement development as well as the influence of repressions on activists’ popularity. The mathematical model by Andreev A.Y. and Borodkin L.I. has been modified to describe the interaction of authorities, activists and workers. The use of the modified model to describe the strike movement dynamics is given as an example. To test the model’s adequacy the calculation data were compared with corresponding statistical indicators. The results demonstrate that the model is rather good at describing the changing strike activity in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. When the influence of activists is generally low (1895-1899), it accounts for 10-20% of the strike movement. When it reaches the critical point, the role of activists in the strike movement growth increases sharply and becomes dominating in 1902 when this point is overcome. The model is also correct at describing the general trend of decreasing repressions by the authorities and the growth of activists’ influence.
Anisimova D. - Helsinki Stock Exchange Index during World War One: Statistical Test of Hypotheses on the Basis of Counter-Factual Modeling pp. 55-65


Abstract: The article proposes an improved model of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index dynamics and constructs a similar model of Helsinki Stock Exchange index on the basis of published results of a counterfactual model predicting the hypothetical dynamics of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index after July 1914 under the assumption that there is no war. The author hypothesizes that internal economic factors that determined the downward trend of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index also influenced the dynamics of Helsinki Stock Exchange index under the assumption that there was no war. To test this hypothesis the author has constructed (in the R software environment) the ARIMA statistical model that is an integrated autoregressive-moving average model which extends the ARMA model for non-stationary time series. The constructed counterfactual models proved that while the influence of pre-war factors remained, the dynamics of both indices did not show similar trends thus suggesting that the Finnish stock market was developing without any noticeable look at St. Petersburg Stock Exchange and inner economic factors of the Russian Empire.
Kunavin K.S. - Only Due to Supreme Consent?. Promotion in Top Civil Ranks in Russia in the 19th Early 20th Centuries through the Lens of Self-Organized Criticality Theory pp. 74-89


Abstract: The article considers state elite of the Russian Empire in the 19th century consisting of civil servants of the 4th-1st classes. Special attention is paid to its interaction with the system of civil ranks promotion. The author studies the way the Table of Ranks and terms in office system favored inter-elite rivalry for the influence on the emperor. The latter is the main element of the civil ranks promotion system whose formal sanction influenced career dynamics of civil servants in the upper strata. The interactions between the monarch, top civil servants and the formal ranks promotion system formed the dynamics of annual promotion of some contenders to the 4th civil rank. This dynamic row is considered through the lens of self-organized criticality theory. The author hypothesizes that the actions of the state authorities aimed at filling the deficit of mid-ranking civil servants resulted in abundant numbers of civil servants of the 5th and upper classes and low control over the career dynamics of the upper civil servants and the system of top ranks promotion was in the state of criticality. Analysis of the dynamics of annual ranks promotion to the 4th class supports this idea.
Shpirko S. - To Count the Absent (or the Problem of the Total Number of Genoese Merchants in Byzantium) pp. 79-87


Abstract: The author develops a mathematical-statistical approach to the problem of estimating the size of Genoese medieval population in Byzantium. The data source is notarial acts covering commercial partnerships, freightage, wills, purchase and sale of houses, goods and people drawn up in the Genoese colony of Constantinople at the end of the 13th century. The will form has a fairly uniform structure. In addition to the mandatory record of names of the contracting parties and witnesses of the transaction, it may also register names of the third parties. Thus, these data on the clientele of Genoese notaries represent a dataset which may indirectly indicate the size of the entire trading Genoese community of Byzantium. This approach is based on a constructed formalized model that describes the behavior of merchants when visiting and concluding a transaction attested by a notary. This makes it possible to pass in a natural way from the initial to the statistical problem of estimating the size of a finite aggregate and use this mathematical theory for its calculation. In this case, the author applies the approach associated with the use of the maximum likelihood function that is a novelty. The resulting formula allows (with a certain degree of probability) one to estimate the required size of the Genoese population. It is interesting that this estimate, on the whole, coincides with the result of A.L. Ponomarev obtained earlier for the same problem using Zipf's empirical law.
Zhukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. - Factors of Demographic Processes in Russian Agrarian Society in the Second Half of the 19th Late 20th Centuries (Tambov Region Data) pp. 89-102


Abstract: This paper outlines factors that impacted the change of demographic behavior of the rural population of the Central Black Earth Region from the middle of the 19th century to the late 20th century. Factor scores have been determined when modeling demographic processes in 1,500 rural settlements. The authors rely on a classical view that late traditional society was highly dependent on negative natural events, characterized by low migration and strong ties of birth rates with death rates. It has been shown that extraordinary positive factors (the rise of zemstvo medicine in particular) stimulated unlimited natural growth. Short-term stress factors (wars, hunger and epidemics) led to compensatory reproduction. The authors also come to a conclusion that modernized society (the latter half of the 20th century) had more complicated relations between demographic behavior factors. The evolution of modernized micro-communities (individual settlements) was subjected to a great number of nonlinear effects. The data demonstrate that the agrarian society at the time continued the move to natural growth although to a lesser extent than during the previous stages. However, the results of such an intention were largely neutralized by migration.
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