Статья 'Факторы демографических процессов в российском аграрном обществе второй половины XIX – конца XX в. (на материалах Тамбовского региона)' - журнал 'Историческая информатика' - NotaBene.ru
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Factors of Demographic Processes in Russian Agrarian Society in the Second Half of the 19th – Late 20th Centuries (Tambov Region Data)

Zhukov Dmitry Sergeevich

PhD in History

Associate professor, Derzhavin Tambov State University

of. 316,  33,  Internatsional'naya ul., Tambov, Tambovskaya oblast', Russia, 392000

ineternatum@mail.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Kanishchev Valery Vladimirovich

Doctor of History

Professor, Derzhavin Tambov State University

33, ul. Internatsional'naya, g. Tambov,  Tambovskaya oblast', Russia, 392000

valcan@mail.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Lyamin Sergey Konstantinovich

PhD in History

Associate professor, Derzhavin Tambov State University

33  Internatsional'naya ul., Tambov, Tambovskaya oblast', Russia, 392000

laomin@mail.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 

DOI:

10.7256/2585-7797.2020.3.33820

Review date:

03-09-2020


Publish date:

11-11-2020


Abstract: This paper outlines factors that impacted the change of demographic behavior of the rural population of the Central Black Earth Region from the middle of the 19th century to the late 20th century. Factor scores have been determined when modeling demographic processes in 1,500 rural settlements. The authors rely on a classical view that late traditional society was highly dependent on negative natural events, characterized by low migration and strong ties of birth rates with death rates. It has been shown that extraordinary positive factors (the rise of zemstvo medicine in particular) stimulated unlimited natural growth. Short-term stress factors (wars, hunger and epidemics) led to compensatory reproduction. The authors also come to a conclusion that modernized society (the latter half of the 20th century) had more complicated relations between demographic behavior factors. The evolution of modernized micro-communities (individual settlements) was subjected to a great number of nonlinear effects. The data demonstrate that the agrarian society at the time continued the move to natural growth although to a lesser extent than during the previous stages. However, the results of such an intention were largely neutralized by migration.


Keywords: migration, mortality, birth rate, Central Black Earth region, agrarian population, historical demography, computational history, social simulation, demographic transition, demographic strategies
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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