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Historical informatics

Mathematical Model of the Strike Movement in Russia in the Late 19th – Early 20th Centuries

Basaeva Elena Kazbekovna

ORCID: 0000-0002-9198-7319

PhD in Physics and Mathematics

Leading Researcher, Southern Mathematical Institute – the Affiliate of Vladikavkaz Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences; Head of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, North Ossetian State University after K. L. Khetagurov

362027, Russia, respublika Severnaya osetiya-Alaniya, g. Vladikavkaz, ul. Markusa, 22, YuMI VNTs RAN

Другие публикации этого автора

Kamenetsky Evgeny Samoilovich

ORCID: 0000-0002-7105-3578

Doctor of Physics and Mathematics

Chief Researcher, Southern Mathematical Institute – the Affiliate of Vladikavkaz Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences

of. YuMI VNTs RAN, 22, ul. Markusa,  g. Vladikavkaz, respublika Severnaya Osetiya-Alaniya, Russia, 362027

Другие публикации этого автора

Khosayeva Zarina Khetagovna

Researcher, Vladikavkaz Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences

of. VNTs RAN, 22, ul. Markusa, g. Vladikavkaz, Russia, 362027




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Abstract: Dynamics of the strike movement in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries is analyzed. Multiple statistical data on workers’ fighting for their rights in this period provides for effective use of mathematical modeling to better understand the causes for workers’ protest activity increase that was especially high in 1903. In particular, one can evaluate the role of activists in the strike movement development as well as the influence of repressions on activists’ popularity. The mathematical model by Andreev A.Y. and Borodkin L.I. has been modified to describe the interaction of authorities, activists and workers. The use of the modified model to describe the strike movement dynamics is given as an example. To test the model’s adequacy the calculation data were compared with corresponding statistical indicators. The results demonstrate that the model is rather good at describing the changing strike activity in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. When the influence of activists is generally low (1895-1899), it accounts for 10-20% of the strike movement. When it reaches the critical point, the role of activists in the strike movement growth increases sharply and becomes dominating in 1902 when this point is overcome. The model is also correct at describing the general trend of decreasing repressions by the authorities and the growth of activists’ influence.

Keywords: statistical indicator, workers' strain, stressors, interaction of social groups, activists' influence, authorities' strain, critical value, normalized indicator, mathematical model, strike movement
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

Andreev A.Yu., Borodkin L.I., Nelineinaya model' stachechnogo dvizheniya: analiz effektov samoorganizatsii // Krug idei: elektronnye resursy istoricheskoi informatiki / Pod red. L.I. Borodkina, V.N. Vladimirova. M., 2003. S. 434—489.
Bosse E., Hoogendoorn M., Klein M.C.A., Treur J., van der Wal C.N., van Wissen A. Modeling collective decision making in groups and crowds: Integrating social contagion and interacting emotions, beliefs and intentions // Auton. Agent Multi-Agent Syst. 2013. Vol. 27. C. 52—74.
Basaeva E.K., Kamenetskii E.S., Khosaeva Z.Kh. O vliyanii nelineinykh effektov na stabil'nost' obshchestva // Matematicheskie zametki SVFU. 2015. T. 22, № 3 (87). S. 78—84.
Basaeva E.K., Kamenetskii E.S., Khosaeva Z.Kh. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie sotsial'noi napryazhennosti v poslevoennom SSSR // Istoricheskaya informatika. 2016. №1—2. S. 12—19.
Basaeva E.K., Kamenetskii E.S., Khosaeva Z.Kh. Kolichestvennaya otsenka fonovoi sotsial'noi napryazhennosti // Informatsionnye voiny. 2015. № 2. S. 25—28.
Vinogradov A.G. Narodnoe khozyaistvo Rossii i SSSR s drevneishikh vremen po nastoyashchee vremya. Statisticheskie tablitsy. Ch. 2. — WP IP «General electronic books» (CI-USA), 2015. 294 s. [Elektronnyi resurs]. URL: https://books.google.ru/books?id=2X9xCwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&hl=ru&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false (data obrashcheniya 25.04.2017)
Trudovye konflikty i rabochee dvizhenie v Rossii na rubezhe XIX—XXvv. / Pushkareva I.M., Borodkin L.I., Glazunov S.V., Novikov A.V., Potolov S.I., Shimnikova I.V. — SPb.: Izd-vo «Aleteiya», 2011. 476 s.
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