Статья 'Цифровая революция: опыт периодизации и проблемы прогнозирования' - журнал 'Genesis: исторические исследования' - NotaBene.ru
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Genesis: Historical research

Digital revolution: the experience of periodization and problems of forecasting

Miloslavov Aleksei Sergeevich

PhD in Philosophy

Docent, the department of Philosophy of Science and Technology, Saint Petersburg State University

199034, Russia, Sankt-Peterburg, g. Saint Petersburg, ul. Universitetskaya Nab., 7-9




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Abstract: This article examines a complicated phenomenon that includes the epistemic and technological components, as well as multiplicity of social practices. Based on such approach, the author determines the significant stages of “digitalization” of various sides of social life; describes the problems impeding accurate forecasting of the processes of future development of information and communication technologies and their impact upon social life. Methodological patterns that should be followed by a researcher aimed at implementation of a forecasting function with regards to future transformations of sociotechnical digital world. Methodological framework contains the historical-comparative analysis that allows identifying problematic areas in the attempts to establish periodization of the development of computer science and desire to form forecast of the future flow of transformations in the “digital world”. Bases on the concepts “open exit project” and “medium zoom level”, the article reveals the capabilities and limitations for accurate realization of forecast functions with regards to further course of the “digital revolution”. The author substantiates the statement that in studying processes associated with future development of computer science, it is necessary to pay attention to socio-anthropological consequences of research and engineering activity.

Keywords: forecasting, social practices, computer science, вычислительная техника, periodization, digital revolution, history of science, open exit project, medium zoom level, innovation
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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