DOI: 10.7256/2585-7797.2020.1.32459

Abstract: The article proposes an improved model of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index dynamics and constructs a similar model of Helsinki Stock Exchange index on the basis of published results of a counterfactual model predicting the hypothetical dynamics of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index after July 1914 under the assumption that there is no war. The author hypothesizes that internal economic factors that determined the downward trend of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index also influenced the dynamics of Helsinki Stock Exchange index under the assumption that there was no war. To test this hypothesis the author has constructed (in the R software environment) the ARIMA statistical model that is an integrated autoregressive-moving average model which extends the ARMA model for non-stationary time series. The constructed counterfactual models proved that while the influence of pre-war factors remained, the dynamics of both indices did not show similar trends thus suggesting that the Finnish stock market was developing without any noticeable look at St. Petersburg Stock Exchange and inner economic factors of the Russian Empire.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0609.2019.3.28910

Abstract: In this article, the author considers the attempts to financially integrate Finland into the sphere of influence of the Russian Empire at the end of the 19th - early 20th centuries, on the example of the monetary circulation in that region. The monetary issue was one of the main issues for both the Finnish society and the Russian government, which sought to reduce the autonomy already formed in the region. The preparation of the monetary reform was initiated several times over several decades, but it had never been realized. The author examines through the materials from the National Archives of Finland the process of interaction between the Russian government and the local governing bodies, in which each of the parties had their own interests in the issue of money circulation in Finland. The results of this interaction and the Russian government's degree of influence were studied using a statistical analysis of the exchange rate of the Russian Ruble and the Finnish Mark during the First World War. On the basis of the conducted research, the author concludes that the Finnish autonomization was enough to prevent with all its force the introduction of monetary reform. But, nevertheless, Finland at that time did not become independent to the extent that it could confidently distance itself from Russia, which was pursuing an intermittent and step-by-step, yet completely unidirectional course towards the financial integration of Finland into its sphere of influence.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0609.2016.4.19734

Abstract: The process of opening the State Bank of Russia and private Russian banks branches in the Grand Duchy of Finland in the early 20th century represented one of the most important steps to financial integration of an almost autonomous region into the Russian Empire. This process experienced some troubles and problems related to the Finnish opposition and complicated domestic situation in Russia. It had not shown any results because of the start of the First World War. However, to some extent, it managed to unlock its potential. This research has become possible with the help of office archives of Governor-General and stats-secretariat of the Grand Duchy of Finland. Their thorough examination allowed the uncovering of factors, main steps and results of Russian Bank operations in Finland. In addition to the fact that this article is the first to introduce some of the sources, it can also give an indepth understanding of complex relations between the Russian government and the Grand Duchy. The study of an attempt to financially rather than forcefully integrate periphery, that was moving further and further away in cultural and economic terms, is extremely important for contextualizing and redefining the already existing ideas of core actions towards newly annexed territories in the pre-revolutionary time.