DOI: 10.7256/2454-065X.2016.8.19873

Abstract: The subject of the research is income tax revenues in the regional budget of the Russian Federation. The authors of the article analyze the possibility of using factor models for predicting tax revenues. The purpose of the research is to connect socio-economic indicators of regions with the volume of receipts of the income tax. To achieve the aforesaid target, it is necessary to allocate the factors defining receipts of income tax in the regional budget and to establish their mathematical dependence with the income tax. In order to achieve the reserach goals, the authors have chosen significant factors, and have constructed one-factor and two-factor mathematical models of receipt of income tax depending on qualititaive elements of the tax. The Nizhny Novgorod Region is chosen as the case study. Based on the analysis of data from the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation and Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation the authors have created regression models. As a result of the research the authors have developed one-factor models to demonstrate the relation between the target indicator (the amount of the income tax received by the regional budget) and sign factors. They have also outlined two significant sign factors to be used in the two-factor model that would reflect the influence of indicators of the amount of tax payments on regional tax revenues (in the Nizhny Novgorod Region). To prove the significance and validity of the models the authors have used mathematical and statistical methods. All the models have been recognized as significant based on the research results. The authors of the present research have established the mathematical relationship (in the form of regression models) between income tax revenues and their determinant factors.   

DOI: 10.7256/2454-065X.2016.6.18184

Abstract: The purpose of this research is to create a new approach to differentiation of taxes between levels of the budget system. The subject of the research is the value added tax (VAT). This article is the continuation of the research of redistribution of tax revenues between budget levels. Taking into account the algorithm developed by authors of the article, it is offered to redistribute the VAT. At the moment this indirect tax in the Russian Federation comes only to the federal budget. Considering that the majority of regional budgets have a subsidized focus, new approach to distribution of tax revenues can solve this problem. To achieve the research goals, the authors carried out the analysis of these forms of tax accounts for the period 2010-2014 for 83 constituents of the Russian Federation, interpreted theoretical criteria for distribution of taxes according to the aforesaid indicators, selected the criterial factor (variance factor), assessed the indicators for each constituent during a particular time period, defined the weighting value of each indicator and made conclusions about VAT differentiation. As a result of the research possible percentage intervals of distribution of VAT revenues for federal and regional budgets for 83 Russian Federation constituents are provided. The drawn conclusions can be used in the course of developing tax policy at a level of a specific region or the country in general.