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Publications of Kanishchev Valery Vladimirovich
Historical informatics, 2020-3
Zhukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. - Factors of Demographic Processes in Russian Agrarian Society in the Second Half of the 19th Ц Late 20th Centuries (Tambov Region Data) pp. 89-102

DOI:
10.7256/2585-7797.2020.3.33820

Abstract: This paper outlines factors that impacted the change of demographic behavior of the rural population of the Central Black Earth Region from the middle of the 19th century to the late 20th century. Factor scores have been determined when modeling demographic processes in 1,500 rural settlements. The authors rely on a classical view that late traditional society was highly dependent on negative natural events, characterized by low migration and strong ties of birth rates with death rates. It has been shown that extraordinary positive factors (the rise of zemstvo medicine in particular) stimulated unlimited natural growth. Short-term stress factors (wars, hunger and epidemics) led to compensatory reproduction. The authors also come to a conclusion that modernized society (the latter half of the 20th century) had more complicated relations between demographic behavior factors. The evolution of modernized micro-communities (individual settlements) was subjected to a great number of nonlinear effects. The data demonstrate that the agrarian society at the time continued the move to natural growth although to a lesser extent than during the previous stages. However, the results of such an intention were largely neutralized by migration.
Historical informatics, 2019-4
Zhukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. - Modeling of Demographic Processes in the Late Soviet Village: 1959-1989 pp. 43-73

DOI:
10.7256/2585-7797.2019.4.30639

Abstract: The article presents the results of modeling demographic strategies of 1.5 thousand Tambovskaya Guberniya rural settlements in 1959-1989. The authors consider methodological and tool aspects related to the formation of a fractal model and computer experiments based on it. They have determined the values of governing factors affecting the formation of collective goal-oriented ideas about the expected migration rate and the rate of population's natural increase or decline. The results obtained can arguably be extended to a few similar regions of Russia. This study is sequel to previous works where models for the period from the middle of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century have been set forth. Modeling has demonstrated that there are two groups of settlements: migration donors and migration recipients. During the period understudy the rural population (when setting their life goals) relied mostly on migration which evidently was a depressing agent for natural increase. Nevertheless, the majority of peasant societies were open to a certain natural increase..
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