DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2018.1.22294

Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of change in modern conflicts in the transition from linear to non-linear models of war. The rationale of the research is caused by the growing tendency of modern warfare to the asymmetric strategies of indirect actions, based on a combination of military efforts with political, economic and informational methods of influence on the enemy for solving problems that were mostly resolved by military means. The methodology is based on a comparative analysis of the strategies of modern war as well as on the analysis of the genesis and evolution of contemporary conflicts. The scientific novelty of research is caused by the fact that work represents one of the first attempts to study the evolution of modern warfare with the involvement of categories of the determinants. The author analyzes two kinds of conflicts, hybrid war and a color revolution as the most prominent examples of the Genesis of war in the era of globalization and information technology revolution. The author gives the detailed analysis of the main components of a hybrid war: the military-political, socio-economic and information. It is shown that in the beginning of the XXI century, with special strength evident by a number of factors contributing to a radical transformation of the meaning and purpose of contemporary conflicts, due to a noticeable shift in the balance of military and non-military forms, means, methods, and technologies not in the power part of the spectrum. The indicated trend is an important factor leading to high-quality modification of indicators determining the conflicts of the new generation of hybrid war and a color revolution. Thus, the transition of contemporary conflicts from the classical linear paradigm to non-linear wars of a new type and the highest form of modern war is a war of civilizations, a war of meanings of their existence. The winner of the war of the senses wins not a space and not even the right to control the resources of the defeated States, but gaining the right to determine its future. This necessitates the development of new strategies to protect the state from a hybrid aggression, which needs to incorporate the non-linear configuration of strategic forces and capabilities.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8728.2017.12.21510

Abstract: The subject of this research is the strategy of hybrid war. An attempt is made to demonstrate that war alongside any social phenomenon undergoes transformations. At the same time, this entails not the simple process of qualitative transformations that lead to the change of quality. In the conditions of globalization and information-technological revolution, the modern conflicts suffer drastic, qualitative changes. Evolution lead up to revolution that creates new circumstances for further evolutionary development. The transition from old quality to new implies the multiplicity of forms, and only consideration of the specific character of phenomena and historical factors, within which takes place the development of these events, allows understanding which forms trigger the leaps, turns from one quality to another. The methodology is based on application of the evolution of strategies of the modern conflicts of dialectical law of transition from quantitative changes to qualitative as most general law of development. The article also uses comparativist method. The scientific novelty lies in the attempt to use dialectical law of transition from quantitative changes to qualitative for analyzing the genesis of strategies of a hybrid warfare. It is stated that the most profound and comprehensive impact upon the changes in the character and content of modern conflicts is produced by the processes of globalization and information technology revolution, which create the new mechanisms of interaction and interdependence at the global and regional scales. It is illustrated that the paradigm shift of modern conflicts is associated with the trend of transition from the linear to nonlinear model of war based on application of the indirect asymmetric actions. The author examines the changes in framework elements of hybrid war that determine the content of the philosophy of war as humanitarian components of the teaching on war. The logics of strategy of counteracting the hybrid warfare must be structures with consideration of the nonlinear configuration of strategic forces and capabilities. The model of such strategy must reflect the following key tasks aimed at protecting the state from hybrid aggression:   Transition from the form of securing the space of military-political, economic, and cultural worldview spheres of the state towards functional control over the most essential strategic elements of each sphere; Ensuring of possibility of the immediate concentration of crucially important efforts and resources in the most threatened zone. Today this is the front of information warfare. Directing reconnaissance and its close cooperation with the bodies of military-political administration and armed forces for the purpose of implementation of strategy that allows using the privilege in the threatened areas.  

DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2017.3.20815

Abstract: The research object is the new elements of modern conflicts connected with globalization and the development of technologies. The research subject is the paradigm of modern conflicts, whose transformation is caused by the tendency connected with the transition from the linear warfare model to the non-linear one, which is based on indirect asymmetric actions. The author considers the aspects of the topic connected with the intensive growth of the use of new strategies, based on the combination of military efforts with political, economic and information methods of influence on the opponent, which are used in the practice of modern conflicts to solve the problems, which have been previously solved mainly by military methods. Based on the comparative analysis of hybrid warfare and color revolutions, the author studies the cascade mechanism of strengthening based on the synergetic impact of hybrid warfare and color revolutions on a state, which is subject to aggression within a uniform operative project. Special attention is given to the peculiarities of hybrid warfare as a non-linear conflict model, based on the use of indirect asymmetric actions, and the impact of such peculiarities on the transformation of the paradigm. The research methodology is based on the system, structural-functional, comparative-political and military analysis, the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction. The author is one the first to attempt to reveal the impact of a non-linear character of hybrid warfare on the strategy and tactics of war, on prognostication and strategic planning. The author studies the concepts of “friction of war” and “lubrication” in relation to hybrid warfare. The author is one of the first to attempt to demonstrate the importance of the concept of “friction of war” for the understanding of hybrid warfare as a sphere of indefinite and unreliable reflection of this phenomenon in the model of war. The author is the first to build the hybrid warfare model reflecting the essential characteristics of a conflict, and to study the potential of combination of the strategies of hybrid warfare and color revolution within a single conflict strategy. The author concludes about the existence of a serious danger for the national interests and security of the Russian Federation coming from the growth of intensity of use of new strategies, based on the combination of military efforts with political, economic and information methods of influence on the opponent, which are used in the practice of modern conflicts to solve the problems, which have been previously solved mainly by military methods. In the context of the problem of Russia’s national security provision, the author demonstrates the necessity to develop a new strategical approach, which would be based on the wide use of adaptive political technologies in the socio-economic and cultural spheres; to improve the potential of military forces and other law enforcement agencies with account for the peculiarities of such conflicts, the appropriate transformation of the national and international normative framework. The author formulates the proposals about the provision of Russia’s national interests and national security in the context of transformation of the modern conflicts paradigm.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2016.4.17807

Abstract: The object of this research is the information warfare, which can be carried out within the framework of color revolution and/or hybrid war. The subject of this research is the role of strategies of demolition and exhaustion that are being examined with regards to information warfare in the aforementioned conflicts. It is stated that the strategies of information warfare can be viewed as the varieties of strategies of demolition and of exhaustion implemented in conventional conflicts. The author determines the content and mutual influence of the strategies of demolition and exhaustion in the information warfare pertaining to color revolution and hybrid warfare. It is underlined that in the modern conflicts “hard power” is being implemented in combination with the non-military methods of affecting the enemy, including the information-psychological warfare. The author examines the role of public diplomacy and “soft power” in the information warfare. The approaches towards development of Russia’s strategy in counteracting information warfare are being proposed. The main conclusion of this work lies in the necessity of establishment of countermeasures against the disruptive information technologies in political-administrative, cultural-economic, and cultural-worldview spheres, taking into account the use of the two interconnected information strategies of demolition and exhaustion by the adversary. The author’s main contribution consists in justification of implementation of the strategies of demolition and exhaustion in color revolution and hybrid warfare correspondingly. The author is first to attempt to pursue correlation and interconnection between the strategies of demolition and exhaustion in the information warfare of modernity.

DOI: 10.7256/2409-7543.2016.4.19958

Abstract: The research subject is the US and NATO strategy of increase of military pressure on Russia using the containment based on the combination of nuclear-missile, anti-missile and conventional weapons. The most important component of the containment strategy is the use of subversive measures of color revolutions and hybrid warfare. The author emphasizes that, in the context of the adaptive use of force, the escalation from nonviolent to military forms of struggle becomes possible due to the indistinctness of borderlines between hybrid and conventional warfare and the absence of clear criteria of definition of fundamental characteristics of these conflicts during transformation. The research methodology is based on the system, structural-functional, comparative political and military approaches, the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction. The author demonstrates the logic of formation of interrelated strategies in the form of a linkage including color revolution – hybrid warfare – conventional warfare. The author warns that military and political developments of a hybrid war can spin out of control, accidently or out of malice, thus leading to the transformation of a local conflict into a large scale military conflict with a prospect of growing into a global one. The author notes a high degree of inconsistency of the evaluations of hybrid warfare as a possible catalyst of modern large scale conflicts by scholars, military experts and politicians. It promotes the atmosphere of uncertainty in relation to the issues, crucial for the national and international security; it can lead to the misunderstanding and the wrong interpretation of the purposes of the sides of the conflict and the loss of control over the events. The author suggests to unite the specialists’ efforts aimed at the development of theoretical grounds of the new type wars, including terminology, classification, criteria of conflicts, definition of the role of military and nonviolent measures, etc. The efforts should be concentrated, probably, by means of the creation of the Centre for Modern Conflicts Research under UN auspices.