World Politics - rubric Challenges and threats to international security
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MAIN PAGE > Journal "World Politics" > Rubric "Challenges and threats to international security"
Challenges and threats to international security
Lebedev S. - The influence of oil on civil wars: the political economy paradigm pp. 1-7


Abstract: The research subject is the interconnection between oil wealth and political processes. The research object is the influence of hydrocarbons on ethnic conflicts. The author considers the ‘political’ dimension of the problem of resource curse and puts emphasis on the economic component of politics. There’s empirical data proving that the existence of ground or subsea oil or gas fields increases the probability of a civil war. At the same time, political and economic sciences still can’t explain this fact clearly and definitely. The main research paradigm is political economy with the rational choice methodology in the core. The author proceeds from the assumption that political actors try to analyze their profits and costs and make decisions based on this analysis. The article considers three explanations of the influence of oil on civil wars. Firstly, it’s a “honeypot effect”, when profits from hydrocarbons make official positions more enticing. Secondly, it’s the reduction of administrative competences of the state as a result of the resource curse. Thirdly, it’s the increase of probability of international intervention. The author concludes that the key conditions of a civil war are the low cost of a riot and the concentration of hydrocarbon wealth in one region which can be interested in separation.   
Guykin V.A. - Eurasian Union vs the "Tumangan project" (Uniplanetary society or race wars) pp. 13-31
Abstract: Eurasia's XXI-century political architecture may be affected by changes which were initiated by certain UN structures. "Project Tumangan", which is fostered by UN strategists, is not as safe or as progressive as it is being presented. The Russian strategy of a Eurasian union was conceived at the same time as "project Tumangan", acting as its antipode. If "Tumangan" means isolation for Russia and disorganization and geopolitical transformation of the entire Eurasian territory in favor of Chinese interests, the Eurasian union represents a multiracial society which symbolizes the unity of Eurasian countries, and in time, the world. Driven by mutual economic interests, members of the Eurasian union constitute a new power in the globalizing world.
Ilina E.V., Chipizubova P.A. - Digitalization in the Middle East: a Threat to the Regional Security or a Way to maintain it? pp. 15-30



Abstract: The article is devoted to the main threats and advantages brought by digitalization in the Middle East nowadays. The research problem of the article is "which influence of digitalization positive or destructive prevails in the Middle East and what prospects await this region in the digital sphere. The interests of key regional players in the cybersphere (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Iran, etc., as well as anti-systemic non-state actors), as well as regional and national initiatives in this industry, including "Peninsula Shield", "Vision 2030" and others, are analyzed. The scientific novelty of the study lies in a non-classical approach to security problems in the Middle East, namely through the prism of the digital sphere, taking into account its complexity and the multiplicity of its actors. The theoretical basis of the research is based on a neoliberal approach to world politics, in particular, on the concept of complex interdependence, since the authors rely on the postulate that the world policy sphere is inextricably linked with others, and also consists of a multitude of heterogeneous actors and connections between them. From the point of view of studying regional integration in the Middle East, the dominant approach is neofunctionalism, developed by E. Haas, in particular, the theory of "spillover". The research methods used are description, study of official documents and statistical data, situational analysis, comparative analysis, which made it possible to assess the key threats and prospects for regional security and their correlation. The authors conclude that the key threat to the region is the disunity of the main actors' interests and the associated possibility of political contradictions' aggravation. Nevertheless, digitalization provides the Middle East with such advantages as deepening regional integration and inclusion in international cooperation, the growth of soft power and the potential for economic diversification.
Shamakhov V.A., Kovalev A.A. - Transformation of the geography of global security in the age of civilizational confrontation
pp. 43-55


Abstract: The purpose of the work is to study the changing geography of international security in the modern age of civilizational confrontation. To achieve this goal the authors solve several tasks: 1) the authors consider the understanding of the territory of a nation-state in the modern studies; 2) the authors study the problem of blurring the areas of war and peace; 3) the authors consider the new geography of  power beyond national borders; 4) the authors analyze the methods and approaches to studying the new geopolitical landscape of the modernity in the age of civilizational confrontation. The results of the research can be used for the preparation of general and special courses in political science, sociology, geopolitics, and the history of international relations. The research methodology includes general scientific and comparative analysis, the historical and logical, and specific methods of political science (event-analysis, case-study, expert assessment). The authors study the modern interpretations of the theory of a nation-state, consider the problem of blurring the areas of war and peace and the key aspects of the new geography of power beyond state borders, analyze the key methods and approaches to studying the new geopolitical landscape of the modernity in the age of civilizational confrontation. In spite of the tendencies indicating the renaissance of nationalism in the modern civilizational confrontation, the larger structural transformations in the world policy still point at the necessity to solve security problems taking into account the geographical borders of a state and the current state of the globalising world. Blurring the borders between the areas of war and peace will mean the decrease of effectiveness of the policy of containment or strategical negotiations which is based on the understanding of states as unitary subjects.  
Borisov D.A. - Extremism and Counter-Terrorism Agenda of the UN in the 21st Century pp. 48-57


Abstract: The article considers the formation of the international approach to counteract extremism under the aegis of the United Nations. The author identifies two stages in this process. The first stage (2001-2014) is characterized by lack of attention of the international community to the problems of extremism, which were treated in the context of counter-terrorism activities during this period. As result, the formulated principles and definitions of the UN counter-terrorism approach were applied in anti-extremist activities by default. However, the spread of destructive international processes in the first decade of the 21st century required a revision of the international community's approaches ensuring international security, especially with regard to countering new threats and challenges. In 2014, the second stage of the development of the international approach to counter extremism began. Issues of countering the spread of violent extremism received special attention within the framework of the UN's counter-terrorism activities. In 2014-2016 the process of developing the legal and regulatory framework for preventing extremism within the UN were launched as the topic of counteraction to extremist activity was included in the agenda of meetings in the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly. The author's contribution to the study of the topic is periodization of the UN activities in the field of countering extremism. The main conclusion of the study is fixation of a new conceptual direction in the UN's counter-terrorism activities, within which prevention of militant extremism becomes a new vector. An important research emphasis of the work is description and analysis of the conceptual frames of the United Nations counter-terrorism and counter-extremist approaches for the international community.
Strigunov K.S. - Strategic Risks Hindering Nuclear War Between China and the United States pp. 58-87



Abstract: The object of the study is a hypothetical nuclear war between China and the United States. The subject of the study is the strategic risks preventing a nuclear war between China and the United States. The aim of the study is to determine the strategic risks that prevent the initiation of a nuclear war between China and the United States at the stage of making a decision to launch a first nuclear strike. Methods and methodology. The study was carried out within the framework of neorealism. A systematic approach was used as well as the methodology of classical military-political studies. Among the methods used were such general scientific methods as analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction. The method of studying documents and the factorial approach were also used. The article analyzes the strategic risks that prevent the unleashing of a nuclear war between powers with the world's largest economies in the context of intensive globalization. The author concludes that the strategic risks of nuclear war outweigh the benefits of it especially in the context of intense globalization. The expectation of a nuclear strike and the mechanism for making a decision about it, in the author's opinion, are one of the most important factors in the low probability of actors to resort to nuclear war as a means of resolving contradictions. At the same time the misinterpretation of damage and the difference in understanding the scale of a nuclear strike also hinders a nuclear war. The novelty of this research. The issue of a hypothetical nuclear war between China and the United States is considered for the first time in scenarios of limited and massive nuclear weapons, simultaneously taking into account the factors of intensive globalization; the fog of war effect, which plays an extremely important role; the risk of a distorted interpretation by the attacked of the scale of nuclear strikes; different understanding by the attacker and the attacked of what is considered a limited strike and the risk of a disproportionate response; erasing the boundary between limited and massive nuclear strike in the context of intensive globalization and reducing the level of unacceptable damage; third party factors, incl. state or non-state actors capable of provoking a nuclear escalation.
Gusher A.I. - Threats and challenges to the security of Russia pp. 64-75


Abstract: Currently the threats and challenges to Russia are being transformed and new tendencies appear.  The character of these transformation provides for a higher level of external threats to Russia and to widening of their spectre.  All of the above require permanent, in-depth and multi-aspect study and analysis of the newly appearing security problems.  During the last 25 years Russia has been going through a very complicated period of its history. The break-up of the Soviet Union and the later actions of the Eltsin's regime caused grave systemic, material and moral damage to the Russian society.  Being a basis and the backbone of the Soviet Union, the Russian Soviet Federal Republic (RSFSR), which is currently the Russian Federation, had the most losses due to the break-up of the Soviet  Union. About 25 million Russian people remained outside of the Russian borders. The economic, technological, scientific and cultural links among the Republic and inside the Union which were formed for decades before and directed towards the RSFSR, Russia and Moscow were destroyed.  The material losses of Russia were huge, since it was mostly for the Russian money that the former Republics of the USSR obtained their industries, infrastructures, cities, new workplaces, and millions of Russian people worked there.
Shitova E. - Methods of fighting corruption in Brazil: achievemetns and new challenges. pp. 123-143


Abstract: Corruption is a large-scale problem throughout the political system of Brazil. Corruption permeats all of the levels of state administration (federal, regional, municipal) and all of the branches of power. In spite of the measures taken at the state level the problem of corruption remains ttopical. The controlling services become more and more branched, but they do not become more efficient.  The informal practices of public relations form an important part of the Brazilian culture and influence its efficiency. Corruption in Brazil is caused both by the imperfections of the instituions themselves and by the cultural acceptance of it.  The methodology of the article involves systemic, structural functional, comparative political approaches, methods of analysis, synthesis, deduction, observation and modeling.  The article involves analysis of the nature of the corruption "Brazilian style", its cultural specificities, and measures against it at all state levels since 2000s, including the agencies responsible for fighting corruption, legislative regulation of corruption, results, which have been achieved and the new challenges.
Bondarchuk A. - Face and nature of the Ukrainian fascism. pp. 144-152


Abstract: The author of this article recently visited the assembly of the "Svoboda" party, where Oleg Tyagnibok was moved for Presidency in Ukraine. The article expresses his opinion as a citizen and a professional psychologist.  There are many young people among the delegates, including the members of the new Kyiv Government and several governors assigned via the quota of the Svoboda party. There are people no older than 30 judging by their looks among the governors.  All of them have no administrative experience, except for managing sotnyas at the Maidan. It is not known how such inexperienced cadres shall manage state administration. The association has started, and usually the organizational issues are dealt with at this stage. And even at the initial stage there were things, which shocked, worried, amazed and scared the author as an independent observer.  The methodology of the article is based upon the systemic and structural-functional approach, methods of analysis, synthesis, observation, construction, induction, deduction and dialectics.  The ideology of the Right-wing ultra-nationalism (de facto Fascism) is forced into Ukraine by someone's skilled hands. This is a political technology is aimed for development of the mutual fear among the Russian and Ukrainian people, "demonizing" and forming the image of the Russian and Ukrainian enemies serving the interests of the American expansionism in order to escalate the enmity among our peoples in order for Ukraine to fight Russia "till the last Ukrainian person". The danger of Fascism in the Ukrainian society is real. However, there is a counter-potential, and it is not limited just to South-Eastern regions.
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