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DOI: 10.25136/2409-8671.2023.1.39781
EDN: GIJKDJ
Received:
08-02-2023
Published:
15-02-2023
Abstract:
In recent years, China's scientific and technological power has risen rapidly, threatening the United States' supremacy in this field. In order to contain the continuous development of China's scientific and technological strength, the US government has adopted a series of policies and measures since the Trump administration. At present, the technological confrontation between China and the United States is becoming increasingly fierce. In order to better understand this technological confrontation, this paper will use methods of analysis, information synthesis, comparison, induction, and deduction to analyze the causes of Sino-US science and technology confrontation, list the specific measures taken by the United States, study the comparative advantages of the United States and China in this confrontation, and finally analyze the global impacts of the Sino-US technological confrontation. With the rise and development of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, scientific and technological competition is gradually becoming the front and core of Sino-US strategic game, which is different from the traditional geostrategic competition in content and form. This is the first time that the strategic competition of major powers mainly focuses on the field of non-physical geography for mankind. Neither China nor the United States has sufficient experience, and there is also a lack of historical experience to learn from. This paper argues that the Sino-US technological confrontation will not only affect the relationship between China and the United States, but also have negative impacts on the world. Therefore, China and the United States should look for areas of science and technology that can cooperate actively, promote the common prosperity and development of global science and technology, and let science and technology play a new and more constructive role in global politics.
Keywords:
technological confrontation, Sino-US relations, strategic game, technical decoupling, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, international configuration, comprehensive national strength, scientific and technological strength, 5G technology, artificial intelligence
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As science and technology occupy an increasingly important place in the structure of productive forces, the rivalry and competition of the great powers and, above all, the United States and China in the scientific and technological sphere is increasing in the modern world. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has maintained an absolute leading position in the global scientific and technical sphere. However, after the global financial crisis of 2008, China's economic, military, scientific and technological power has increased significantly, narrowing the gap with the United States in the area of the total power of the state. Especially during the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4PR), China has maintained a leading position in the world in the field of 5G, artificial intelligence and other areas.4PR opened up new opportunities for technological innovation, but also led to a new round of competition and the game of great powers. With the growth and development of 4PR, scientific and technical competition is gradually becoming the front and core of the Sino-American strategic game. Thus, the rivalry between China and the United States in the field of science and technology is a comprehensive game in which both China and the United States have their advantages and disadvantages. Given the breadth and depth of the technological confrontation between China and the United States, this game will not only have an impact on relations between the two countries, but will also bring profound changes to the whole world. The reasons for the technological confrontation between China and the United States In recent years, China's combined power has improved significantly, narrowing the gap with the United States. There is widespread debate in the US about whether China is a "partner" or a "rival", and whether China should be "restrained" or "involved", which leads to new challenges in Sino-American relations.[1] The promulgation of the Trump administration's "National Security Strategy" at the end of 2017 and the beginning of the trade war with China in March 2018 marked a new period of the "strategic game" between China and the United States.[2] In the field of science and technology, China boarded the "last train" of the third industrial revolution. Thanks to the continuous improvement of its scientific and technical system, China's scientific and technical power and innovation potential continued to grow. Currently, although China's scientific and technological power is still inferior to that of the United States as a whole, China shares a dominant position in the world with the United States and even surpasses the United States in some areas of advanced technologies of the fourth Industrial Revolution, such as 5G technology, artificial intelligence, quantum computer science and so on. The global dominance of the United States as a leading world power was again under threat. The rapid rise of China's power has increased the vigilance and anxiety of the United States. Judging by the historical experience of the US-Soviet rivalry and the US-Japanese trade tensions, the US is used to using multidimensional strategies of suppression and deterrence against countries whose economic scale reaches two-thirds of their own in order to maintain their global hegemony[3]. The importance of science and technology has always been appreciated as the main element contributing to the growth of national power and the transformation of the international system.[4] Scientific and technological innovations have become the front and core of this round of the Sino-American strategic game. The reasons are as follows: on the one hand, scientific and technological progress is seen as the "main engine" for China to continue to increase its political, economic, and military power in the future.[5] On the other hand, technological leadership is viewed by the United States as a fundamental guarantee of ensuring and maintaining its relative advantage in power and global hegemony. Thus, the root cause of the Sino-American technological confrontation lies in the measures taken by the dominant Power to prevent and suppress the scientific and technological development of the rising Power out of fear that the technological power of the rising Power may threaten their own global hegemony.[6] Specific measures taken by the United States in the technological confrontationAs China's scientific and technological power has grown significantly, the US has intensified its crackdown on Chinese technology companies in all directions. The United States is madly cracking down on China and conducting technical separation (technical "decoupling"), which is essentially the suppression of scientific and technological progress and economic development of China in order to preserve scientific and technological hegemony and its own global hegemony of the United States. "The goal of the United States here is unchanged - to prevent China from creating its own supply chains of technology and thereby slow down the economic development of the PRC".[7] Accordingly, the US has taken the following measures: First, the US has passed legislation aimed at deterring China from the legal level, thereby raising the comprehensive competition between China and the US in supply chains and technology to the legal level, as well as institutionalizing the technological confrontation against China. Since the Trump administration took office, most of the China-related bills in the US Congress have argued that they use China's internal and external challenges and take various measures to pressure China in various areas. The overall goal is to block the rise of China and maintain U.S. hegemony for a long time through strategic rivalry with China. After the Biden administration took office, the focus of proposals related to China in the US Congress shifted to technological competition and "human rights and democracy", especially competition in science and technology has become a key issue, and proposals related to China on other topics are related to this.[8] For example, in April 2021 The US Senate has passed the "Strategic Competition Act of 2021". In June 2021 The US Senate has passed the "Innovation and Competition Act of 2021" (The Innovation and Competition Act of 2021). In February 2022, the U.S. Senate debated and passed the "America COMPETES Act of 2022". In August 2022, US President Joe Biden signed the "Chips and Science Act of 2022" (The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022) at the White House.
Secondly, the US is blocking technology exports to China. First of all, the United States provides a legal framework and institutional guarantees of strict control over technology exports to China through legislation and administrative orders. Then the United States expanded the scope of control over technology and increased the punishment of subjects who violated the control system.[9] Finally, the United States includes more and more Chinese scientific and technical organizations in its "list of organizations" and "list of Chinese military companies". By the end of 2022, the US government had banned in principle the export of more than 600 Chinese enterprises and groups.[10] Thirdly, the United States restricts the entry of Chinese capital, technology and researchers. First of all, the free flow of investment from China has been limited, especially with regard to technology. On the part of the United States, this was most clearly manifested after the reform of the Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS), which aimed to block the growing volume of mergers and acquisitions between Chinese companies in the United States, especially in the high-tech industrial sector.[11] Then, for reasons of national security, the US government banned the technological products of Chinese enterprises from entering the US market. Finally, the US also uses various administrative means to restrict the normal exchange of Chinese experts, scientists, students and other researchers for reasons of national security.[12] Fourth, the US has targeted China's leading technology companies. The success of Huawei, ZTE and other enterprises has also prompted the US to target these representative advanced technology enterprises. First of all, the US has launched a series of investigations and sanctions against Huawei and other Chinese companies, tightened controls on technology exports and banned federal and local authorities from buying Huawei technology products. Meanwhile, Huawei is banned from building 5G networks in the US. In addition, the United States actively mobilized its allies and partners to boycott Huawei and publicly put pressure on many countries cooperating with Huawei.[13] Finally, the US has also taken some "dirty" measures to combat Huawei, with the exception of controlling technology exports and blocking the market. What surprised the international community the most was that Huawei's chief financial Officer Meng Wanzhou was detained on December 1, 2018 at Vancouver Airport at the request of the United States.[14] Subsequently, the Canadian government illegally detained her for more than 1,000 days in an attempt to suppress Huawei. Fifth, in addition to taking a number of measures to weaken China's scientific and technological might, the United States has also increased its absolute strength in the global scientific and technological landscape by promoting the reform of its domestic scientific and technological system, increasing investment in research, revitalizing semiconductor manufacturing, promoting the construction of 5G networks, and so on. The American scientist believes that in the face of a dynamic and determined opponent, simple deterrence does not guarantee an advantage, and what really needs to be done is "self-improvement".[15] After the Biden administration came to power, the United States also tried to maintain and expand its leading positions in the field of science and technology through self-innovation and "self-improvement". For example, the "Innovation and Competition Bill 2021" worth $250 billion, adopted in June 2021, aims to invest more than $200 billion in strengthening US science, technology and research.[16] In addition, in terms of federal budget expenditures for 2023, the Biden government increased federal spending on research and development to $191 billion, which is 12.7% more than in 2022.[17] In general, during the Trump administration, the US suppressed China mainly by restricting technical exchanges, and under the Biden administration, the US pays more attention to domestic investment in research and development and external alliances. Comparative advantages of China and the United States in the technological confrontation On the one hand, the USA is leading in the field of basic research, basic and key technologies, original innovations and breakthrough technological innovations. First, the United States has a clear pioneer advantage, leading or even monopolizing in many areas. As for hardware, American semiconductor companies (such as Intel, AMD, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, etc.) occupy 46% of the global market share in 2021.[18] The USA has a monopoly advantage in the field of chip technology and operating systems. On the contrary, China was heavily dependent on the import of microchips, and the trade deficit of integrated circuits in 2022 amounted to $ 261.7 billion.[19] As for software, US operating systems (such as Microsoft, Android, iOS, etc.) occupy almost 98% of the market share of both computers and mobile devices, which is absolute dominance.[20] It is more difficult for China to get rid of the US software restriction. In addition, the US is far ahead of China in research and development and data storage. In short, the US has built a technological system from software to hardware with a first-mover advantage. Secondly, the US has dominated the development of international technical standards in recent decades and has formed a systematic advantage in the market with great power of discourse. The degree of participation and leadership in the development of international technological standards is the embodiment of the level of technological innovation and technological competitiveness of the state.[21] It is generally assumed that the development of technical standards is an international competition related to the distribution of income, and the one whose standards will be adopted as international technical standards will receive comparative advantages and benefits.[22] In the past, Western countries tightly controlled the establishment of international technical standards to support global markets. On the contrary, China has become a late participant in the development of international technical standards, and in the process of participation often faces obstacles set by the United States and other countries. Thirdly, the USA is the world's largest center of scientific and technological innovation, with the largest number of leading technology companies in the world, such as Apple, Google, Microsoft and so on. The top ten global technology companies by market capitalization include the United States and China, but the United States occupies 8 of them, while China has only 2. Moreover, as of April 2022, Apple's market value was the same as that of the 100 largest technology companies in China combined.[23]
Fourth, the United States has an established system of higher education and research and leading technology companies that attract the best specialists from around the world. Moreover, the United States has provided them with a reliable incentive and protection system, as well as created a relaxed and free environment for innovation and entrepreneurship. On the other hand, in China, due to the intensity of research work, low salaries of researchers, lack of political incentives and other factors, many specialists with higher education do not want to engage in scientific and technical work, which leads to a shortage of talented people in the field of high technology. On the other hand, despite the fact that the United States has been a leader in this field for a long time, in recent years China has improved and had its advantages. First, the huge size of the Chinese market has created rich user data and use cases for technological innovation. The population of China is 1.4 billion people, and the GDP per capita is about ten thousand US dollars. In terms of purchasing power parity, the size of the Chinese economy exceeds the size of the US economy. In addition, China is the largest export market for American aircraft and soybeans, as well as the second largest export market for American cars and integrated circuits. Annual Report of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) The US shows that global sales of semiconductor chips reached a record level of 555.9 billion dollars in 2021, which is 26.2% more than in 2020. China remained the world's largest market with a volume of 192.5 billion dollars and accounted for 34.6% of the global figure.[18] Thus, the technological separation will block the supply of technology to China and at the same time deprive American companies of the Chinese market.[24] In addition, intelligent technologies associated with the fourth industrial revolution require large-scale data collection and application, so data resources have become an important strategic resource and the main innovation factor of the country. China's huge population and scale of use have accumulated huge data for research and innovation of new technologies, creating a rich variety of use cases. Secondly, China continues to increase investment in scientific research. Although there is still a gap in research and development spending between China and the US, China is catching up. In 1991, China spent only 0.72% of its GDP on research and development, compared with 2.6% in the US at that time. In 2000, China spent only 0.89% of its GDP on research and development, compared with 2.6% in the United States. But by 2020, China spent 2.4% of its GDP on research and development, which is close to 3.4% in the United States.[25] According to the latest Aspen Institute research report, China's research and development spending has grown rapidly and steadily since 2000 and is expected to exceed U.S. spending by 2025. At the same time, the United States is not investing enough in scientific innovation, while the latest spending on research and development (% of GDP) is at its lowest level in the last 60 years.[26] Third, China has an effective institutional advantage and a political environment. China attaches great importance to science and technology and creates a favorable political environment for scientific and technological innovation. In recent years, China has released policy documents such as "Made in China 2025" and "13th Five-year National Science and Technology Innovation Plan" to provide support for scientific and technological innovation of social enterprises and focus on key projects. In addition, China also pays close attention to advanced fields of science and technology, actively supports and promotes technologies related to the Fourth industrial revolution at the national level, such as the release of the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan" in 2017. The superiority of socialism with Chinese characteristics lies in the concentration of all forces for major affairs. In this way, China can coordinate the resources of all parties in a complex work and work wonders.[27] Despite the above advantages, China still faces many problems and challenges in the technological confrontation. For example: how to create your own innovation system; how to break the technological blockade of the United States; how to cope with your own economic downturn; how to increase the economic return on the results of scientific research and so on. The global impact of the technological confrontation between China and the United StatesHigh technology is the foundation of the global economy. It is not only a traditional industry, but also an unprecedented driving force of innovation and economic development, which has a profound impact on the configuration of the international system. The global impact of the technological confrontation between China and the United States mainly includes the following aspects: Firstly, the Sino-American technological confrontation will aggravate already serious international conflicts and cause a geopolitical crisis. The technological revolution of the twentieth century has further strengthened the influence of science and technology on global politics and the economy. During the new technological revolution, artificial intelligence is a key factor that will affect the geopolitical and military power of the state in the coming decades. The arms race of intelligent weapons has begun and will affect the direction of development of these technologies.[28] With the intensification of the scientific and technical game between China and the United States, the politicization of science and technology in the West is becoming more serious. Currently, the "technology alliance" is gradually becoming an important measure of the Biden government to conduct international competition in the field of high technology. Under the strong impulse of the US government, allies and partners joined in cooperation in various fields of high technology in order to restrain China's development and preserve US hegemony.[29]
Secondly, the technological confrontation between China and the United States will cause a regression of globalization. Globalization has closely linked the trade of all countries, and an international division of labor has gradually formed. Thanks to globalization, the world has become more efficient, production efficiency has increased significantly, and human civilization has reached a new height. In the process of rapid development of high-tech industries, the global division of labor is indispensable. However, the Sino-American technological confrontation has disrupted the structure of the global industrial chain. Normal trade in science and technology has been disrupted, and direct investment in the international science and technology industry has also been limited. The increase in tariffs increased the production costs of enterprises, violated the production plan. And the measures taken by the United States prevented the free circulation of intermediate products between countries.[30] Thirdly, the technological confrontation between China and the United States will accelerate the formation of technological bipolarity. One of the inevitable consequences of the current technological separation promoted by the US is that China seeks technological independence and then builds another technological camp. Currently, the US is planning to form a technological alliance with the democratic camp to try to compete or even oppose China in the field of science and technology. This technology alliance will cooperate in the development of telecommunications technology and prevent the sale of advanced semiconductor technology to China.[31] On the other hand, due to the influence of the Chinese "One Belt, One Road" strategy and the "Smart City" policy, the technological path followed by more than 40 developing countries is becoming dependent on China's technologies and standards.[32] Fourth, the technological confrontation between China and the United States will further increase the technological gap between the countries. The new technological revolution will significantly increase global wealth, but the distribution of wealth between countries will be more uneven. Due to the rapid development of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Matthew effect, countries with the advantage of pioneers will constantly increase their advantages. This will reduce the chances of the "latecomers" catching up with them and will lead to a situation where "the winner will get everything".[33] In addition, the widespread use of new technologies will make up for the shortage of human resources in developed countries, and, on the contrary, the "demographic Dividend" of developing countries will disappear. Moreover, the leading countries in the field of science and technology will hinder the development of backward countries through technological restrictions, sanctions and other means. Finally, the leading countries in the field of science and technology have greater attractiveness for intellectual resources and capital. The new technological revolution and increasingly fierce competition in the global high-tech market have increased their importance in the geopolitical confrontation between China and the United States and in international relations in general. Currently, the technological confrontation has become the front and core of the strategic game between China and the United States, which differs from the traditional geostrategic competition in content and form. This is the first time when the strategic rivalry of major powers is mainly focused on the field of non-physical geography of mankind. Neither China nor the United States has sufficient experience, nor does it have enough historical experience to learn from.[34] It can be predicted that high technology will become the dominant factor determining the economic and military power of the great powers in the future. In 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin, taking part in the meeting of the conference "Journey into the world of Artificial Intelligence", said that "artificial intelligence is a resource of colossal power. Whoever owns it will get far ahead and gain huge competitive advantages."[35] This indicates that the international community as a whole views scientific and technological development as a zero-sum game. It also explains many mysterious aspects of the current Sino-American technological confrontation. The application of traditional geopolitical means to high-tech areas will not only reduce the potential of global scientific and technological development, affect the normal functioning of the mechanism of globalization, but also intensify serious international conflicts. However, although the two poles of the technological war seem to have formed, given the specific situation with advanced technologies and markets, especially the global nature of information and communication technologies and the international characteristics of the Internet market, the current Sino-American technological confrontation can only be an intermediate step towards the future state of international relations and high-tech markets.[36] Since Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping and U.S. President Jimmy Carter signed the Agreement on Scientific and Technical Cooperation between China and the United States in 1979, the history of scientific and technical exchange and cooperation between China and the United States has more than 40 years. During this period, both sides have implemented thousands of cooperation projects and achieved significant success. Thus, Sino-American technological cooperation is ultimately a mutually beneficial partnership, not a one-sided profit.[37] The situation of the Sino-American technological confrontation has developed, but confrontation does not mean hostility and irreconcilability. China and the United States need to look for areas of science and technology that can actively cooperate, contribute to the common prosperity and development of world science and technology, and allow science and technology to play a new and more constructive role in world politics.
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The subject of the peer-reviewed study is the causes and main factors of technological competition and confrontation between the United States and China. The author rightly notes the connection of the increasing relevance of the topic of his research in recent decades with the changing role and functions of technology in the structure of productive forces. Accordingly, it is quite possible to assume that the technological confrontation between the two economic giants of the United States and China "will bring profound changes to the whole world." Unfortunately, the author did not bother to describe and argue his own theoretical and methodological choice. However, from the context, it can be understood that in the research process, in addition to traditional general scientific analytical methods, elements of a systematic approach and structural and functional approaches, as well as institutional and historical ones, were used. In addition, you can see the use of the method of statistical analysis of secondary data. The correct application of these methods allowed the author to obtain results with signs of scientific novelty. First of all, we are talking about the author's rather curious conclusion that Chinese-American technological cooperation is rather a mutually beneficial partnership, rather than a zero-sum game, in order to obtain unilateral profits. Accordingly, it should be about technological competition rather than confrontation. In addition, the author's forecast on minimizing the impact of the "demographic dividend" of developing countries on the world economy in the future is of particular interest. Structurally, the work makes a good impression: its logic is consistent and reflects the main aspects of the research. The following sections are highlighted in the text: - an uncluttered introductory part, which substantiates the relevance of the research, as well as formulates a scientific task, but lacks theoretical and methodological reflection; - "The causes of the technological confrontation between China and the United States", where the historical foundations and causes of competition between China and the United States in the field of technology are investigated; - "Specific measures, adopted by the United States in the technological confrontation", which analyzes the key actions and steps of the United States in the studied confrontation; - "The comparative advantages of China and the United States in technological confrontation", which examines the possibilities of the studied countries in technological competition; - "The global impact of the technological confrontation between China and the United States", which substantiates one of the main conclusions about the prospects for changing the world under the influence of technological confrontation between two economic giants"; - an uncomplicated and unnecessarily "short" final part, where the results obtained are summarized in one paragraph and some predictions are made. From now on, the author can be recommended to take a more responsible approach to writing the conclusion. Stylistically, the article also makes a positive impression. There is a small amount of stylistic in the text (for example, the absence of a space after the dot between the sentences "... In the field of 5G, artificial intelligence and other areas.4PR has opened up new opportunities..."; stylistically, the combination of "front and core of the Sino-American strategic game" also looks somewhat unsuccessful due to the fact that "front" and "core" are phenomena of different order; stylistically unjustified rhetorical repetitions take place: "Neither China nor the United States has sufficient experience, and there is also a lack of historical experience on which to learn"; the use of the expressions "predict" instead of "predict" is also hardly appropriate in scientific work: "It is possible to predict that high technology will become the dominant factor..."; there are other not very successful stylistic solutions) and grammatical (for example, an uncoordinated sentence: "Due to the rapid development of the fourth industrial revolution and the Matthew effect"; etc.), but in general it is written quite competently, in a good scientific language, with the correct use of scientific terminology. The bibliography includes 37 titles, including publications in foreign languages, and adequately reflects the state of research on the subject of the article. The appeal to the opponents takes place in the introductory part of the work. GENERAL CONCLUSION: the article proposed for review can be qualified as a scientific work that meets the requirements for works of this kind. The results obtained by the author will be of interest to political scientists, political sociologists, specialists in the field of public administration, world politics and international relations, as well as to students of the listed specialties. Among the advantages of the article, a large amount of empirical material attracted by the author for analysis should be noted separately. The conclusions drawn by the author correspond to the topic of the journal "World Politics". According to the results of the review, the article is recommended for publication.
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