Anikin V.I., Surma I.V.
Methodological bases of the analysis and development of complex systems in international relations (structural-functional approach towards establishment of the state mechanism of foreign policy)
// National Security.
2015. № 2.
P. 283-296.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2015.2.14753 URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=14753
Методологические основы анализа и развития сложных систем в международных отношениях (структурно-функциональный подход в формировании государственного внешнеполитического механизма)
Anikin Vladimir Ivanovich
Doctor of Economics
Professor at the Department of Public Administration and National Security at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry
344002, Russia, Rostovskaya oblast', g. Rostov-Na-Donu, ul. B. Sadovaya, 69, of. 308
Abstract: The subject of this research is the key moments of the establishment of the state mechanism for international relations and presents the most important aspects of the development of the system of preparation and decision making for the strategic administration of the country with the assessment of the promptness of the solution of the problem of utmost complexity, preemption of the reaction to threat with evaluation of the risk, modeling and forming of scenarios of possible developments of global situation. Under the current conditions of geopolitical instability, the leaders of the branches of government administration of any country are experiencing a great need for improvement of the efficiency of the political decisions with the use of creative potential of the experts in both, hierarchic states, as well as in non-governmental structures. The proposed general classification principles of the establishment of the state foreign policy mechanism and their information, logical and mathematical interpretation, in authors’ opinion allows expanding the current methodological base of the assessment of the condition and development of the system of the government administration on the issues of foreign policy, and contribute to the increase of quality of the forecasting research under the conditions of geopolitical and geoeconomic instability.
Keywords:
information warfare, socio-political modeling, state mechanism of foreign policy, foreign policy, geopolitical instability, national security, geopolitics, government administration, strategic matrix, systemic scenario approach
References
1. Rossiya i mir: vzglyad iz 2017 goda. Ezhegodnyi doklad akademii prognozirovaniya-Rossiiskogo otdeleniya mezhdunarodnoi akademii issledovanii budushchego. RPP MAIB R-05/07-05, 2007.
2. Politicheskii atlas sovremennosti: Opyt mnogomernogo statisticheskogo analiza politicheskikh sistem sovremennykh gosudarstv.-M.: Izd-vo «MGIMO-Universitet», 2007.
3. Anikin V.I. Osnovnye napravleniya i metody prognozirovaniya i modelirovaniya vo vneshnepoliticheskoi deyatel'nosti. Uchebnoe posobie. – M.: DA MID RF, 2004.
4. Anikin V.I., Surma I.V. Mezhdunarodnye aspekty i strategicheskie otsenki ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossii v usloviyakh geopoliticheskoi nestabil'nosti // Voprosy bezopasnosti. — 2014.-№ 5.-S.137-174. DOI: 10.7256/2409-7543.2014.5.14293. URL: http://e-notabene.ru/nb/article_14293.html
5. Anikin V.I., Surma I.V. Sovremennaya Rossiya: metodologicheskie aspekty strategii politicheskogo i ekonomicheskogo razvitiya // V.I.Anikin, I.V.Surma.-M.: Natsional'naya bezopasnost'. №3(20) –2012. – s.4-16
6. Anikin V.I., Surma I.V. Perspektivy politiko-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii: stsenarnyi prognoz. Vestnik povolzhskoi akademii gosudarstvennoi sluzhby. №2 (31) 2012.-s. 43-49
7. Smirnov A.I. Informatsionnaya globalizatsiya i Rossiya: vyzovy i vozmozhnosti. – M.: ID «Parad», 2005.
8. Global'naya bezopasnost' v tsifrovuyu epokhu: stratagemy dlya Rossii. Pod obshch. red. Smirnova A.I. – M. : VNIIgeosistem, 2014. – 394 s.
9. Global'naya bezopasnost': innovatsionnye metody analiza konfliktov. Pod obshch.red. Smirnova A.I. – M.: Obshchestvo «Znanie» Rossii. 2011.-272 s.
10. Anikin V.I. Teoriya i praktika upravleniya vo vneshnepoliticheskoi deyatel'nosti. Uchebnik. – M.: Nauchnaya kniga, DA MID RF, 1999.-383 c.
11. Anikin V.I., Larionova E.V., Mikheev I.V. Metodika klasternogo analiza otsenki i prinyatiya vneshnepoliticheskikh reshenii.-M.:, DA MID RF.1994.-25 c.
12. Tsygankov P.A. Teoriya mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii. Uchebnoe posobie.-M.:, Gardariki. 2006.-590 s.
13. Burenko V.I. Politologiya. – M.: Knorus, 2013.-392 s.
14. Ivanov V.N., Matvienko V.Ya., Patrushev V.I. Tekhnologii politicheskoi vlasti. Zarubezhnyi opyt.-Kiev: Vysshaya shkola.1994.-263 s.
15. Anikin V.I. Natsional'naya bezopasnost' i konversiya voennogo proizvodstva// Konstitutsionnaya demokratiya i grazhdansko-voennye otnosheniya. Materialy Rossiisko-Amerikanskogo nauchno-prakticheskogo seminara. M., Nauchnaya kniga.1997.-s.95-98
16. Khrustalev M.A. Sistemnoe modelirovanie mezhdunarodnykh otnoshenii.-M.: MGIMO.1992.-115 s.
17. Anikin V.I., Sharunenko S.M., Anikin S.V. Osnovnye napravleniya, metody prognozirovaniya i modelirovaniya vo vneshnepoliticheskoi deyatel'nosti.-M.: DA MID RF. 2000.-35 s.
18. Li Vl.F. Teoriya mezhdunarodnogo prognozirovaniya. M.: DA MID RF.2002.
19. Mukhametshin F.M. Zakonodatel'nyi protsess v sisteme gosudarstvennoi vlasti Rossiiskoi Federatsii: Uchebnoe posobie.-M.: DA MID RF, Nauchnaya kniga. 2003.-344 s.
20. Miller D. Magicheskoe chislo 7±2. // O nekotorykh predelakh nashei sposobnosti pererabatyvat' informatsiyu. Inzhenernaya psikhologiya. M., Progress. 1964.
21. Abdeev R.F. Filosofiya informatsionnoi tsivilizatsii. – M.: VLADOS. 1994.-336 c
22. Rozanova L.I. Metodologicheskie osnovy analiza regional'nogo razvitiya // Teoreticheskaya i prikladnaya ekonomika. - 2014. - 4. - C. 1 - 38. DOI: 10.7256/2409-8647.2014.4.11732. URL: http://www.e-notabene.ru/etc/article_11732.html
23. O. G. Kantorovich Rossiya: problemy vyrabotki natsional'noi strategii politicheskogo upravleniya sovremennymi mezhdunarodnymi konfliktami // Politika i Obshchestvo. - 2011. - 8. - C. 48 - 59.
24. Aleinikov A.V. Sistemnye konflikty v Rossii: kontseptual'nye osnovaniya analiza. Stat'ya II. // Sotsiodinamika. - 2013. - 8. - C. 1 - 47. DOI: 10.7256/2409-7144.2013.8.5109. URL: http://www.e-notabene.ru/pr/article_5109.html
Link to this article
You can simply select and copy link from below text field.