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MAIN PAGE > Journal "Security Issues" > Rubric "External threats and countermeasures"
External threats and countermeasures
bartosh a.a. - Hybrid warfare as a possible catalyst of a global conflict pp. 41-53

DOI:
10.7256/2409-7543.2016.4.19958

Abstract: The research subject is the US and NATO strategy of increase of military pressure on Russia using the containment based on the combination of nuclear-missile, anti-missile and conventional weapons. The most important component of the containment strategy is the use of subversive measures of color revolutions and hybrid warfare.The author emphasizes that, in the context of the adaptive use of force, the escalation from nonviolent to military forms of struggle becomes possible due to the indistinctness of borderlines between hybrid and conventional warfare and the absence of clear criteria of definition of fundamental characteristics of these conflicts during transformation.The research methodology is based on the system, structural-functional, comparative political and military approaches, the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction. The author demonstrates the logic of formation of interrelated strategies in the form of a linkage including color revolution – hybrid warfare – conventional warfare. The author warns that military and political developments of a hybrid war can spin out of control, accidently or out of malice, thus leading to the transformation of a local conflict into a large scale military conflict with a prospect of growing into a global one. The author notes a high degree of inconsistency of the evaluations of hybrid warfare as a possible catalyst of modern large scale conflicts by scholars, military experts and politicians. It promotes the atmosphere of uncertainty in relation to the issues, crucial for the national and international security; it can lead to the misunderstanding and the wrong interpretation of the purposes of the sides of the conflict and the loss of control over the events.The author suggests to unite the specialists’ efforts aimed at the development of theoretical grounds of the new type wars, including terminology, classification, criteria of conflicts, definition of the role of military and nonviolent measures, etc. The efforts should be concentrated, probably, by means of the creation of the Centre for Modern Conflicts Research under UN auspices. 
Tikhanychev O.V. - pp. 43-49

DOI:
10.25136/2409-7543.2018.2.25377

Abstract:
Shangaraev R.N. - “Mutualism” or the peculiarities of Turkey’s policy towards Russia pp. 45-54

DOI:
10.7256/2409-7543.2017.1.21840

Abstract: The research object is the peculiarities of the modern Turkey’s foreign policy in its historical development from Osmanism to Kemalism and Pan-Turkism, and its influence on relations with Russia. The main ideologies of the Republic of Turkey have been mixing and synthesizing for the last 20-30 years. Often it’s hard to define where Kemalism ends and Neo-Osmanism or Islamism starts, and it is the reflection of the objective process of interpenetration of the two main political elites and the establishment of a certain form of a compromise between them. The author applies the methods of political-historical and comparative analysis to define the place and role of Russia-Turkey relations on the geopolitical map of Middle East and Central Asia. The author concludes that the modern Turkey’s foreign policy can be characterized as a policy of turbulent pragmatism or as a policy of national interests as they are understood by the political leaders of the country in the particular moment and the particular political situation, when political decisions are made on the base of short-term and medium-term benefits. Despite the current crisis in bilateral Russia-Turkey relations, the fundamental parameters and strategical goals of sectoral cooperation between the countries remain. 
Dikikh A.A. - India and Pakistan: wars, conflicts, their settlement and consequences pp. 46-59

DOI:
10.25136/2409-7543.2017.4.23694

Abstract: The author outlines and studies the origins and reasons of wars (of 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999) and conflicts between India and Pakistan from 1947 till the present time. The author considers the role of the UN Security Council in the settlement of armed conflicts between the countries. Among the key reasons of confrontation between the states, the author outlines the struggle for the territory of Jammu and Kashmir, religious contradictions, disputes over water resources, India’s interference in the conflict between West and East Pakistan in 1971, nuclear tests from 1974 till 1998, struggle for the Siachen Glacier from 1984 till 1987, repeated crossing of the Line of Control by Pakistani troops, etc. The research methodology is based on the historical method, comparative, structural-functional and system analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction. The author emphasizes the existing tension between the countries, caused by religious contradictions, differences in economic situation in the countries, the unsettled territorial dispute over the demarcation Line of Control, China’s influence on the Pakistani government, which aggravates the contradictions between the countries and the possibility of its reduction through the participation of the countries in the SCO. 
Dement'ev V.E. - The procedure of assessment of the complex information influence on the protocols of the information and telecommunications network processing pp. 54-62

DOI:
10.7256/2409-7543.2016.4.20199

Abstract: The author considers the approach which helps allocate the possible influences to the information and telecommunication network protocols. The author takes into account the severity of influence and the vulnerability of each information and telecommunication network protocol. The study is based on the data, obtained during experts questioning, which help acquire expert estimates of influences allocation. The procedure is aimed at forecasting the allocation of influences on the information and telecommunication network protocols with account for their role in the information exchange within the information and telecommunication network and the sequence of influence on them. Consequently, it’ll help acquire the initial data to protect the information and telecommunication network and its elements. The basic research method is the hierarchy analysis method. The procedure is based on the definition of the protocol influences danger level for the information and telecommunication network protocols. This definition is based on the physical grounds of certain influences, their peculiarities and mode according to the levels and protocols of the information and telecommunication network. The method can result in the form of protocol influences distribution between the levels and protocols of the information and telecommunication network and the sequence of influence on them.  
Alireza N. - Russia and Iran’s Nuclear Program: Geopolitical Aspects and Implications pp. 70-90

DOI:
10.7256/2306-0417.2014.4.13203

Abstract: The conflict between the nuclear Iran and the geopolitical plans of the West in the Middle East is one of the central topics of the world politics in recent years. The main cause of this conflict is Iran’s position as one of the central links in the system of geopolitical relations of the Middle East and Eurasia as a whole. Each of the four probable scenarios of further events around Iran’s nuclear program (1) Iran obtain nuclear weapons, 2) Iran’s capitulation, 3) War against Iran, 4) Iran’s positioning as a civil nuclear power) will have its consequences on the regional and global levels, including geopolitical consequences for Russia. As the methodological base, this article uses the systematic analysis approach and the realism apparatus, taking into account the provisions. Realization of the fourth scenario would mean a failure of the aggressive expansionist policy of the West and would fit with such long-term geopolitical interests of Russia as 1) Enhanced stability and preservation of the geopolitical status quo in the adjacent geopolitical zones of Iran and Russia, 2) Strengthening of Russia’s positions in the area as a geopolitical counterweight to the West. Three other scenarios will have negative implications for Russia. Especially if the West succeeds in making Iran capitulate, strengthening of its geopolitical influence in the area will inevitably cause Russia damage.
Chirkov D.K., ., . - On specific features of crimes of foreign migrants in the Russian Federation pp. 189-200

DOI:
10.7256/2306-0417.2013.3.672

Abstract: The article contains criminological characteristics of the crimes of foreign migrants, and specific features of its territorial spread.  One should evaluate crimes committed by foreigners objectively without overestimating its public danger. Criminal activities level of foreigners is not above the criminal activities level of the Russian Federation according to the calculations by the authors.  However, there is a number of other important parameters, showing high level of its public danger. Crimes by foreigners are closely connected with illegal migration.  The threat to national security from illegal migration is strongly connected with the crimes of illegal migrants.  The public danger of crimes by illegal migrants should not be underestimated. Illegal migrants constitute up to 90% among migrant criminals.  There is also a connection between migrant crimes and citizenship of migrants. There is also a connection between migrant crimes and emigration directions from the neighboring states, and existence of old and new diasporas of people from these states in the Russian Federation. The new diasporas are formed by the migrant from the Central Asia. Their crime level grew abruptly in last five years (2007 to 2011). The older diasporas are formed by the citizens of other neighboring states, and the crime level among them is lowering.
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