DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2020.2.32821

Abstract: This article is dedicated to assessment of the climate changes of the Republic of Crimea over the last few decades. Throughout the analysis, the research utilized data on air temperature changes in the temperate latitudes of Europe by paleoclimatic data, as well as by changes in average temperature of surface waters in the Black Sea according coastal measurements. It is demonstrated that on the background of global warming there are natural manifestations of climatic fluctuations with periods of up to 20 years that relate to warm episodes such as El Niño and North-Atlantic fluctuation. The research methodology is based on the modern theory of global warming, which replaced the Milankovitch cycles concept used until the 1980’s. One of the main consequences of global warming for Russia lies in the significant increase in the frequency of reoccurrence of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena. Examples of such phenomena include strong floods and heat waves. In a number of regions, the increase in temperature is also accompanied by spread of agents of dangerous diseases – ticks and marsh mosquitoes. However, the most notable damage caused by the climate change in Russia comes from drought.  

DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2020.2.32258

Abstract: This article is dedicated to definition of the term virtual traces in forensics. The author determined the peculiarities of virtual traces, which allowed giving definition to the traces on digital data storage devices. It is noted, the forensic science does not have a universal terminology for definition of traces left as a result of cybercrimes. Solution of this problem remains extremely important, as it would assist the advancement of the theory and practice of forensics in the indicated field. The author analyzed the case law for the purpose of determining peculiarities of utilization of terminology to describe traces detected in the course of studying digital data storage devices. The conclusion is made that most common and suitable term is “virtual traces”. The definition of the concept in questions was proposed leaning on the analysis of peculiarities of virtual traces and mechanism of their emergence on digital data storage devices. Thus, virtual trace is determined as varied in structure, special type of material traces that exists within the limits of digital data storage device and directly tied with it, as well as can be decoded only using special software and technical means.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2020.2.32864

Abstract: The object of this research is the social, political and economic integration processes in post-Soviet space. The subject of this research is the model of assessment, construction of scenarios and forecast of integration processes. For the analysis, forecasting and assessment of risks of integration processes, the author employs two approaches: 1) usage of methods of the theory of security and mathematical modeling of integration (disintegration) processes of political and socioeconomic actors aimed and increase of their security; 2) assessment of challenges and unfavorable consequences using the paradigm “impossibility – risk – security”. The model of security is based on dichotomy (inextricable connection) of the values of sovereignty (development) and retention, and considers the key factors affecting successful development of the states, trans- and supranational formations: size and ethnic composition of population, interethnic relationship, social indicators of development. The experience of integration processes on the European continent is summarized. It is historically proven that the basis for economic integration consists in the effective mechanisms of political and military integration. The author develops three scenarios of integration in the post-Soviet space: 1) pessimistic, commonwealth of states – insurance of the freedom of movement of commodities, services, capital and workforce, and realization of the coordinated or single policy with regards to economic sectors; 2) realistic, federation with the elements of confederation – joint administration of the Union cover 50% of state functions; 3) optimistic, being a part of the Russian Federation – joint administration of Federation covers80% of state functions, with the possibility of significant increase of country’s security, if 3-7 republics of the former Soviet Union are a part of Russia. The quantitative analysis of geopolitical situation demonstrates the presence of favorable conditions for integration processes.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2020.2.31937

Abstract: The subject of this research is the application of autonomous robotic systems of various designation. The object of this research is the algorithmic problems emerging in this area, namely the problem of control over security of algorithms. The study is carried out on the basis of implementation of robotics in military sphere. The analysis of peculiarities of the modern military operations demonstrates that one of the aspects of revolution in military science is the battlefield robotics. However, its realization generates certain issues in legal sphere, related to algorithmic support of the autonomous system. The manifestations of such problem consist in critical use errors, divided by the experts into the errors of first and second grade. The main cause of these errors is the software functionality of the autonomous robotic system. If the consequences for conventional armament are predictable, and the responsibility for their results is determined, the situation in case of implementation of military robots requires solution. Application of the general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis allow examining the main aspects of current state and prospects of the problem of algorithmization with regards to implementation of autonomous systems. The article synthesizes articulation of the scientific tasks aimed at solution of the problem of division of responsibility between the developers and users of similar system in terms of development and testing of the algorithms of their implementation.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2020.2.32680

Abstract: The object of this research is the concept of “hybrid forces”. Hybrid warfare is a war that employs hybrid force, which hybridity depends on whether they are composed of regular or irregular component. Initially, the irregular component involved partisans, who were later replaced by Special Forces Units, including Commando, which continued to perform a role of irregular units. Hybrid forces, in accordance with the Western doctrines, are most effective. Therefore, it appears relevant to conduct a historical overview and specify methodological approaches towards emergence, role, effectiveness, and potential usage of hybrid forces based on the data provided in foreign sources. The concept is examines its initial meaning, content and relevance of application in describing the conduct of military operations in the modern conditions. The scientific novelty of this work consists in the analysis of foreign source, which in the author’s opinion, underlies the concept of “hybrid warfare”. The historical retrospective, presented in the source, would help theoreticians of hybrid warfare to define this concept with more precision. The conclusion is made that the phenomenon recently dubbed as “hybrid warfare” and “hybrid forces” is not new and has analogues in human history.