—тать€ 'јнализ интеграционных процессов на постсоветском пространстве' - журнал '¬опросы безопасности' - NotaBene.ru
по

 

 

Journal Menu
> Issues > Rubrics > About journal > Authors > About the Journal > Requirements for publication > Editorial collegium > Peer-review process > Peer-review in 24 hours: How do we do it? > Policy of publication. Aims & Scope. > Article retraction > Ethics > Copyright & Licensing Policy > Publication in 72 hours: How do we do it? > Digital archiving policy > Open Access Policy > Open access publishing costs > Article Identification Policy > Plagiarism check policy
Journals in science databases
About the Journal

ѕубликаци€ за 72 часа - теперь это реальность!
ѕри необходимости издательство предоставл€ет авторам услугу сверхсрочной полноценной публикации. ”же через 72 часа стать€ по€вл€етс€ в числе опубликованных на сайте издательства с DOI и номерами страниц.
ѕо первому требованию предоставл€ем все подтверждающие публикацию документы!
MAIN PAGE > Back to contents
Security Issues
Reference:

The analysis of integration processes in post-Soviet space

Shumov Vladislav

Doctor of Technical Science

Leading Scientific Associate, International Research Institute For Advanced Systems

117312, Russia, g. Moscow, Prospekt 60-letiya Oktyabrya, 9

vshum59@yandex.ru
ƒругие публикации этого автора
 

 

DOI:

10.25136/2409-7543.2020.2.32864

Review date:

08-05-2020


Publish date:

31-05-2020


Abstract.

The object of this research is the social, political and economic integration processes in post-Soviet space. The subject of this research is the model of assessment, construction of scenarios and forecast of integration processes. For the analysis, forecasting and assessment of risks of integration processes, the author employs two approaches: 1) usage of methods of the theory of security and mathematical modeling of integration (disintegration) processes of political and socioeconomic actors aimed and increase of their security; 2) assessment of challenges and unfavorable consequences using the paradigm “impossibility – risk – security”. The model of security is based on dichotomy (inextricable connection) of the values of sovereignty (development) and retention, and considers the key factors affecting successful development of the states, trans- and supranational formations: size and ethnic composition of population, interethnic relationship, social indicators of development. The experience of integration processes on the European continent is summarized. It is historically proven that the basis for economic integration consists in the effective mechanisms of political and military integration. The author develops three scenarios of integration in the post-Soviet space: 1) pessimistic, commonwealth of states – insurance of the freedom of movement of commodities, services, capital and workforce, and realization of the coordinated or single policy with regards to economic sectors; 2) realistic, federation with the elements of confederation – joint administration of the Union cover 50% of state functions; 3) optimistic, being a part of the Russian Federation – joint administration of Federation covers80% of state functions, with the possibility of significant increase of country’s security, if 3-7 republics of the former Soviet Union are a part of Russia. The quantitative analysis of geopolitical situation demonstrates the presence of favorable conditions for integration processes.

Keywords: pessimistic scenario, integration scenarios, mathematical model, impossibility, risk, safety, integration processes, optimistic scenario, realistic scenario, geopolitical inversion
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

References
1.
Budushchee mirovoi ekonomiki: Dokl. gruppy ekspertov OON vo glave s V. Leont'evym; Per. s angl. pod obshch. red. A.I. Shapiro. Ц M.: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1979. Ц 212 s.
2.
Vinokurov G. N., Konyakhin B. A., Podkorytov Yu. A. Geopoliticheskii status Kitaya kak faktor rossiiskoi politiki yadernogo sderzhivaniya Soedinennykh Shtatov // Strategicheskaya stabil'nost'. Ц 2008. Ц є 2. Ц S. 49Ц53.
3.
Alesina A., Spolaore E. War, Peace and the Size of Countries // Journal of Public Economics. Ц 2005. Ц є 89 (7). Ц P. 1333Ц1354.
4.
Vardomskii L.B. Evraziiskaya integratsiya i bol'shoe evraziiskoe partnerstvo // Rossiya i novye gosudarstva Evrazii. Ц 2019. Ц є 3 (44). Ц S. 9Ц26.
5.
Kokuitseva T.V., Medennikov V.I., Ovchinnikova O.I. Otsenka vozmozhnykh riskov EAES i ego gosudarstvЦchlenov pri provedenii ekonomicheskoi politiki // Drukerovskii vestnik. Ц 2019. Ц є 3. Ц S. 252Ц264.
6.
Shumov V. V. Gosudarstvennaya i obshchestvennaya bezopasnost': Modelirova-nie i prognozirovanie. Ц M.: LENAND, 2016. Ц 144 s.
7.
Shumov V.V. Modeli i metody upravleniya pogranichnoi bezopasnost'yu: dis. dokt. tekhn. nauk. Ц M.: IPU RAN, 2018. Ц 374 s.
8.
Soroko E. Etnicheski smeshannye supruzheskie pary v Rossiiskoi Federatsii // Demograficheskoe obozrenie. Ц 2014. Ц T. 1. Ц є 4. Ц S. 96Ц123.
9.
Shumov V.V., Kochnev I.P. Otsenka bezopasnosti Rossii, SShA, Germanii i Ukrainy // Natsional'naya bezopasnost' i strategicheskoe planirovanie. Ц 2015. Ц є 4(12). Ц S. 30-41.
10.
Migranyan A.A. Makroekonomicheskaya otsenka tendentsii ekonomicheskogo razђvitiya stran SNG // Ekonomicheskie strategii. Ц 2017. Ц є 19(1). Ц S. 24-39.
11.
Osadchaya G.I. Sotsial'naya politika Evraziiskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza: teoreticheskie i metodologicheskie aspekty // Sotsial'naya politika i sotsiologiya. Ц 2016. Ц є 1 (114). Ц S. 64-71.
12.
Shumov V.V. Modelirovanie migratsii naseleniya v zadachakh obespecheniya bezopasnosti gosudarstva // Upravlenie bol'shimi sistemami. Ц 2017. Ц Vyp. 65. Ц S. 153Ц169.
13.
Djankov S. The new comparative economics // Journal of Comparative Economics. Ц 2003. Ц є 31. Ц P. 595Ц619.
14.
Prognoz sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2024 goda. Ц Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii. Ц 101 s. Ц URL: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/ 450ce3f2da1ecf8a6ec8f4e9fd0cbdd3/Prognoz2024.pdf
Link to this article

You can simply select and copy link from below text field.


Other our sites:
Official Website of NOTA BENE / Aurora Group s.r.o.
"History Illustrated" Website