Usage of models based on quantitative risk theory for support of decision-making on counteraction of destructive social technologies
по
Journal Menu
> Issues > Rubrics > About journal > Authors > About the Journal > Requirements for publication > Editorial collegium > Peer-review process > Peer-review in 24 hours: How do we do it? > Policy of publication. Aims & Scope. > Article retraction > Ethics > Copyright & Licensing Policy > Publication in 72 hours: How do we do it? > Digital archiving policy > Open Access Policy > Open access publishing costs > Article Identification Policy > Plagiarism check policy
Journals in science databases
About the Journal

Публикация за 72 часа - теперь это реальность!
При необходимости издательство предоставляет авторам услугу сверхсрочной полноценной публикации. Уже через 72 часа статья появляется в числе опубликованных на сайте издательства с DOI и номерами страниц.
По первому требованию предоставляем все подтверждающие публикацию документы!
MAIN PAGE > Back to contents
Security Issues
Reference:

Usage of models based on quantitative risk theory for support of decision-making on counteraction of destructive social technologies
Tikhanychev Oleg Vasilyevich

PhD in Technical Science

Deputy Director, Technoserv Group 

111395, Russia, g. Moscow, ul. Yunosti, 13

tow65@yandex.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 

DOI:

10.25136/2409-7543.2020.1.30628

Review date:

20-12-2019


Publish date:

17-03-2020


Abstract.

The object of this research is the process of intergovernmental opposition based on the methods and techniques of “soft power”. The subject of this research is the modeling of personal risks of the participants of sociopolitical processes that ensure counteraction to social destabilization technologies. The article is dedicated to counteraction of destructive technologies implemented in intergovernmental opposition within the framework of “soft power”. For quantitative substantiation of the content of counteraction methods, it is proposed to apply geometrical interpretation of probability-value risk model used in technology and economics, as well as in decision-making on the subconscious level by each individual. The conducted formalization of subject area allowed describing the risk model of making decisions by a specific individual regarding the participation in protect actions. Using the methods of analysis and synthesis, the author examines the behavioral components of the model, as well as its possible effect on the behavior of potential participants of protests through modification of these components. The conclusions are made on possibility of realization of some variations of such effect. Thus, the article targets the development of model of addressing the risks to evaluate the methods of countering “soft power” techniques.

Keywords: risk model, hidden identification, risk assessment, mathematical modeling, social engineering methods, soft power, indirect confrontation methods, inter-state confrontation, quantitative expression of risk, application of risk theory
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

References
1.
Mumford A. Proxy Warfare. Cambrige : Polity Press Publ., 2013. 180 p.
2.
Gene Sharp. From Dictatorship to Democracy. The Albert Einstein Institution, 1993. Elektronnaya publikatsiya: Tsentr gumanitarnykh tekhnologii. — 10.08.2009. URL: https://gtmarket.ru/laboratory/expertize/3200 (data obrashcheniya 12.12.2019).
3.
Sharp Gene. The Politics of Nonviolent Action. Boston, MA: Porter Sargent. 1973. 902 r.
4.
Peter Aekerman, Christopher Kruegler. Strategic Nonviolent Conflict: The Dynamics of People Power in the Twentieth Century: Praeger Publishers, 1994. 359 r.
5.
Sharp Gene, Bruce Jenkins. The Anti-Coup. The Albert Einstein Institution. Boston, MA: 02115-1801. ISBN 1-880813-11-4
6.
Malitskii K.T. Pokazateli bezopasnosti i napryazhennosti sotsial'no-politicheskoi obstanovki, programmnye sredstva ikh vizualizatsii // Voprosy bezopasnosti. 2018. № 2. S. 13-31. DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2018.2.25494
7.
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. Diagnostika i stsenarnyi analiz vneshnikh ugroz regional'noi bezopasnosti. // Natsional'naya bezopasnost' / nota bene. 2014. № 5. C. 626-664. DOI: 10.7256/2073-8560.2014.5.1306.
8.
Shumov V.V. Gosudarstvennaya i obshchestvennaya bezopasnost': Modelirovanie i prognozirovanie. M.: LENAND, 2016. – 144 s.
9.
Kalman D. Elementary Mathematical Models: Order Aplenty and a Glimpse of Chaos. The Mathematical Association of America, 1998.-361 p. ISBN: 0883857073
10.
Diaz M. Petri Nets: Fundamental Models, Verification and Applications. Wiley, 2009.-656 p.
11.
Matematicheskie i instrumental'nye metody v sovremennykh ekonomicheskikh issledovaniyakh: Monografiya / Pod redaktsiei M.V. Grachevoi i E.A. Tumanovoi. — M.: Ekonomicheskii fakul'tet MGU imeni M.V. Lomonosova, 2018. — 232 s.
12.
Inmon W., Linstedt D. Data Architecture: A Primer for the Data Scientist. Morgan Kaufmann Publ., 2014. 378 p.
13.
Tikhanychev O.V., Tikhanycheva E.O. Nekotorye aspekty modelirovaniya etnosotsial'nykh protsessov. Nauchno-teoreticheskii trud. M.: Editus. 2016. – 70 s.
14.
Gavrilov K. A. O konstruirovanii ponyatiya «risk» v sotsiologii // Sotsiologiya 4M. 2007. №24. S. 60-79
15.
Parson T. O strukture sotsial'nogo deistviya. M.: Akademicheskii proekt, 2000 – 880 s. ISBN 5-8291-0016-9
16.
Gaddens E. Sud'ba, risk i bezopasnost' // Thesis.-1994.-№5. – S. 107-134.
17.
Tikhanychev O.V., Tikhanycheva E.O. Model' sotsial'nykh riskov v informatsionnom obshchestve // Sociologie cloveka. 2017. № 1. S. 19-22.
18.
Tikhanychev O.V. — O prikladnom ispol'zovanii modeli riskov // Voprosy bezopasnosti. 2019. № 2. S. 42 - 51. DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2019.2.27633
19.
Covello V.T., Mumpower J. Risk Analysis and Risk Management: An Historical Perspective // Risk Analysis. 1985. Vol. 5. No. 2. P. 103–120
20.
Abchuk V.A., Matveichuk F.A., Tomashevskii L.P. Spravochnik po issledovaniyu operatsii. M.: Voenizdat. 1979.-368 s.
21.
Venttsel' E.S. Issledovanie operatsii: zadachi, printsipy, metodologiya. M.: Nauka, 1988. - 208 s.
22.
Tikhanychev O.V. Modelling in Decision-Making Support Systems. Monograph. Moscow: Editus Publ. 2017. - 76 p.
23.
V Danii planiruyut zapretit' golovnye ubory, zakryvayushchie litso // Rossiiskaya gazeta. Sait RG.ru. URL: https://rg.ru/2018/02/06/v-danii-predlozhili-zapretit-golovnye-ubory-zakryvaiushchie-lico.html (data obrashcheniya 29.03.2018).
24.
Manoilo A.V. Modeli «myagkoi sily» setevykh terroristicheskikh organizatsii (na primere Islamskogo gosudarstva, Al'-Kaidy, Talibana i Brat'ev musul'man) // Geopoliticheskii zhurnal. 2016. №2(14). S.37-46.
25.
Manoilo A.V. Informatsionnyi faktor tsvetnykh revolyutsii i sovremennykh tekhnologii demontazha politicheskikh rezhimov // Internet-politika. - 2015. - №8.-S.61-67.
26.
Bartosh A.A. Strategii informatsionnoi voiny // Natsional'naya bezopasnost' / nota bene. 2016. № 4. S.485-499
27.
Bartosh A.A. Model' adaptivnogo primeneniya sily v tsvetnykh revolyutsiyakh // Problemy natsional'noi strategii. 2014. № 6. S. 113-126.
28.
Khmel' O.S. «Tsvetnye tekhnologii» i riski dlya gosudarstvennosti: ukrainskii opyt // Problemy natsional'noi strategii. M.: Rossiiskii institut strategicheskikh issledovanii. 2016. №6 (39). S.35-41.
29.
Bartosh A.A. Transformatsiya sovremennykh konfliktov // Voprosy bezopasnosti. 2018. № 1. S. 1-18. DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2018.1.22294
30.
Williamson Murray and Peter R. Mansoor, eds., Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2012
31.
Alex Deep, “Hybrid War: Old Concept, New Techniques” Small Wars Journal, 2 March 2015, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/hybrid-war-old-concept-new-techniques (data obrashcheniya 15.01.2017).
32.
Bartosh A.A. Model' gibridnoi voiny // Voennaya mysl'. 2019. №5, S.6-23.
Link to this article

You can simply select and copy link from below text field.


Other our sites:
Official Website of NOTA BENE / Aurora Group s.r.o.
"History Illustrated" Website