Scenario analysis of the problems of transformation of law enforcement system in the conditions of digitalization
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Scenario analysis of the problems of transformation of law enforcement system in the conditions of digitalization
Shul'ts Vladimir Leopol'dovich

Doctor of Philosophy

Head of the Department, Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences

119333, Russia, Moscow, Fotievoi Street 2, building #1

support@e-notabene.ru
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Bochkarev Sergei Aleksandrovich

PhD in Law

Head of Laboratory, M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University

119991, Russia, g. Moscow, ul. Leninskie Gory, 1

bochkarvs@mail.ru
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Kul'ba Vladimir Vasil'evich

Doctor of Technical Science

Head of Laboratory, Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences

117997, Russia, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya Street 65

kulba@ipu.ru
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Shelkov Aleksei Borisovich

PhD in Technical Science

Leading Scientific Associate, Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences

117997, Russia, Moscow Oblast, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya Street 65, office #407

abshelkov@gmail.com
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Chernov Igor' Viktorovich

PhD in Technical Science

Leading Scientific Associate, Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Science

117997, Russia, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya Street 65

ichernov@gmail.com
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Timoshenko Andrei Anatol'evich

PhD in Law

Professor, the department of Organizational and Analytical Support of the Activity and Management in Prosecution Authorities, Academy of the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation

117638, Russia, g. Moscow, ul. Azovskaya, 2, korpus1

antim1@yandex.ru
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DOI:

10.25136/2409-7543.2019.4.30588

Review date:

13-09-2019


Publish date:

23-09-2019


Abstract.

This article is dedicated to methodological and applied problems of increasing the effectiveness of managing transformation of law enforcement system of the Russian Federation in the context of the advanced information society. The work provides the results of analysis of the current challenges of countering the threats of national and public security in the information sphere, as well as the present state and development trends of cybercrime. The authors explore the tasks for improvement of the principles, methods, functions and techniques of the work of law enforcement system in the conditions of the development of information society and the resulting new threats to social security thereof. For increasing the efficiency of solving the applied and practical tasks in managing transformation of law enforcement system in the conditions of digitalization, the authors suggest using the methodology of scenario analysis that provides information support and quality assessment of preparation and implementation of solutions within the framework of management of the indicated processes. The article presents the results of a complex multifactor analysis of the problems of creation the unified investigative body, acquired in studying the multigraph model. Methodological framework contains the suggested approach based on the anticipatory scenario analysis and modeling the processes of development of situations at hand in the political-legal, sociopolitical, socioeconomic and information spheres, as well as in the external environment. The work is conducted with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research in terms of the scientific project No.18-29-16151” Development of the Methods of Managing Transformation of Law in the Conditions of Digital Technology”.

Keywords: transformation, law enforcement system, cybercrime, window of vulnerability, security, information society, digitalization, decision-making, scenario analysis, simulation
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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