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Cybernetics and programming
Reference:

Features of a simulation system for project management tasks with random duration of tasks

Oleinikova Svetlana Aleksandrovna

Doctor of Technical Science

Associate Professor, Department of Automated and Computing Systems, Voronezh State Technical University

394026, Russia, g. Voronezh, Moskovskii prospekt, 14

s.a.oleynikova@gmail.com
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 

DOI:

10.7256/2306-4196.2015.2.14509

Review date:

18-02-2015


Publish date:

17-04-2015


Abstract: In this paper the problem of project management with the random duration of works is considered. An important task is to analyze the risk of delayed completion of such projects. Existing approaches are based on assumptions that are not always feasible under real conditions. In this regard, it is necessary to develop mechanisms for research on the accuracy of the available estimates and may modify them. The object of study is a project given a set of mutually-dependent work with random time of execution. Object of research is probabilistic-temporal characteristics of such project. The aim of the study is to obtain a probability-time characteristics through a series of experiments. To achieve this goal it is necessary to design and implement a system simulation, which allows taking into account the specifics of the problem to conduct experiments to analyze the characteristics of the project. As a result, a system simulation is proposed, which is a fundamental difference from existing analogues is to focus on the use of solutions for a class project management tasks with random duration of execution of certain works. The system allows the researcher to conduct a variety of experiments to obtain the statistical characteristics of the duration of the project in different conditions.


Keywords: risk analysis, PERT estimates, random duration of tasks, probabilistic and temporal characteristics, duration of the project, project management, system simulation, model, Use-Case Diagrams, experiment
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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