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MAIN PAGE > Journal "Historical informatics" > Rubric "Historical process modeling"
Historical process modeling
Zhukov D.S., Lyamin S.K. - Revolution in the Internet: Self-Organized Criticality Theory to Study Protest Movements pp. 11-43


Abstract: The article gives an example of the way self-organized criticality (SOC) theory can be used to study a number of nonlinear effects in social media, protest movement sharp rises in particular. The authors describe the key ideas of the SOC theory and methods to identify pink noise as a SOC attribute. The research object is an associated total of Facebook communities which lent informational and organizational support to the impeachment of Brazil’s president Dilma Rousseff. Chronological frames of the work is January 2015 – august 2016. It has been shown that net activity of some communities understudy was a pink noise within a number of periods. SOC systems can demonstrate explosive activity increase that is the inner potential of systems for self-destruction and/or qualitative transformation. The protest social network studied had key features to generate informational avalanches – fast and big explosions of information creation, transmission and copying. The authors name facts supporting the idea that SOC advent in the nets is caused by mass street actions (violent as well). One parameter of the numerical series studied is a power law factor which can be indicative for network diagnostics, in particular, for revealing their potential for spontaneous informational avalanches.
Slonov V.N., Kocherzhenko O.V., Shabanov V.L. - Archeological Cultural Type: The Problem of Life Cycle for Archeological Artifacts System (Evolution of Ceramics within the Eastern Europes Steppe Belt in the Bronze Age) pp. 28-37


Abstract: This work crowns a series of studies addressing the forms of ceramics within the Eastern Europe’s steppe belt in the Bronze Age. These studies aimed at searching for the internal structural arrangement of complexes of ceramics forms as a complicated system with its own laws of development. The form of a vessel was represented as a set of quantitative markers describing its profile. The study covers vessel complexes belonging to Srubnaya, Sintashtinskaya, Dono-Volzhskaya Abashevskaya cultures, cultural formations of KMK circle as well as Pokrovskiy cultural type. When studying complexes of ceramics forms the authors employed cluster analysis with subsequent consideration of the group size correlation diagram and non-compactness ratio of the groups. Structural arrangement of complexes of ceramics forms has been found for a number of cases. The first arrangement corresponds to a reverse power (“hyperbolic”) law dependence on the correlation diagram whereas the second one corresponds to a logarithmic dependence. For complexes with such structural organization the term "archaeological cultural type" (ACT) is proposed. It is shown that ACT has its own "life cycle" consisting of three periods. These are the advent, the hey-day and the decay. 
Zhukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. - The Study of Peasant Disturbances Intensity in European Russia in the Second Half of the 19th Century by Means of Self-Organized Criticality Theory pp. 38-51


Abstract: The article presents the results of analysis of long time data series reflecting the intensity of peasant disturbances in various guberniyas of European Russia in the second half of the 19th century by means of self-organized criticality theory . The types of peasant protests are presented that depend on the regularity of protest intensity fluctuations in different guberniyas. It has been found that the population density and the average allotment of land exerted the most powerful influence on the formation of protest potential. A hypothesis has been proposed and substantiated that the presence of pink noise in changes of peasant disturbances intensity means that most of regional communities were in a critical state. This demonstrates serious risks of system stability throughout the period understudy. Inner social environment and structural features existed that led to leaping fluctuations and unexpected increase of peasant disturbances. Regional communities were prone to uprisings under the influence of quite usual factors.
Basaeva E.K., Kamenetsky E.S., Khosayeva Z.K. - Mathematical Model of the Strike Movement in Russia in the Late 19th Early 20th Centuries pp. 52-62


Abstract: Dynamics of the strike movement in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries is analyzed. Multiple statistical data on workers’ fighting for their rights in this period provides for effective use of mathematical modeling to better understand the causes for workers’ protest activity increase that was especially high in 1903. In particular, one can evaluate the role of activists in the strike movement development as well as the influence of repressions on activists’ popularity. The mathematical model by Andreev A.Y. and Borodkin L.I. has been modified to describe the interaction of authorities, activists and workers. The use of the modified model to describe the strike movement dynamics is given as an example. To test the model’s adequacy the calculation data were compared with corresponding statistical indicators. The results demonstrate that the model is rather good at describing the changing strike activity in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. When the influence of activists is generally low (1895-1899), it accounts for 10-20% of the strike movement. When it reaches the critical point, the role of activists in the strike movement growth increases sharply and becomes dominating in 1902 when this point is overcome. The model is also correct at describing the general trend of decreasing repressions by the authorities and the growth of activists’ influence.
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