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Historical informatics

Statistical Analysis of Saint-Petersburg Exchange Rate Dynamics in Relation to the Leading European Financial Centers in 1801-1839

Muraveva Anastasia

PhD Candidate, Section of Historical Informatics, History Department, Lomonosov Moscow State University

117335, Russia, Moskva, g. Moscow, ul. Vavilova 93, 8, of. Vavilova 93 kv 8

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The article studies the monetary policy of the Russian state in the second half of the 18th - the first half of the 19th centuries, in particular, the dynamics of exchange rates. The exchange rate is actually the currency rate and demonstrates the purchasing power of a country’s money in relation to that in another country. On the basis of primary data of the Russian press, the author has collected data on quotes for the subsequent statistical analysis and used correlation matrices and regression models to identify factors that influenced the analysis as well as internal dependencies. The main research method is the statistical one accompanied by the inductive approach. The issue of the Russian exchange rate dynamics in the early 19th century has not been properly studies in historiography. The article demonstrates that exchange rates do not depend much on the volume of international trade or, more precisely, on the balance of foreign trade. Exchange rates have weak correlation with the foreign trade balance and statistically insignificant one with the balance of trade with particular countries. The explanatory power of regression models with economical characteristics being independent factors has R² not more than 20-25 %. It must be noted that no reliable dependence of exchange rates on wheat export from Russia has been found while their dependence on gold import was statistically significant as far as Amsterdam and Hamburg are concerned (at the same time the correlation of gold import with wheat export is significant and positive).

Keywords: International trade, Budgetary policy, Monetary policy, Promissory note, Correlation, Regression toward the mean, statistical model, exchange rate, foreign exchange market, St. Petersburg exchange
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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