Статья 'Моделирование демографических процессов в поздней советской деревне: 1959 – 1989 гг.' - журнал 'Историческая информатика' - NotaBene.ru
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Modeling of Demographic Processes in the Late Soviet Village: 1959-1989

Zhukov Dmitry Sergeevich

PhD in History

Associate professor, Derzhavin Tambov State University

of. 316,  33,  Internatsional'naya ul., Tambov, Tambovskaya oblast', Russia, 392000

ineternatum@mail.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Kanishchev Valery Vladimirovich

Doctor of History

Professor, Derzhavin Tambov State University

33, ul. Internatsional'naya, g. Tambov,  Tambovskaya oblast', Russia, 392000

valcan@mail.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Lyamin Sergey Konstantinovich

PhD in History

Associate professor, Derzhavin Tambov State University

33  Internatsional'naya ul., Tambov, Tambovskaya oblast', Russia, 392000

laomin@mail.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 

DOI:

10.7256/2585-7797.2019.4.30639

Review date:

27-08-2019


Publish date:

20-12-2019


Abstract.

The article presents the results of modeling demographic strategies of 1.5 thousand Tambovskaya Guberniya rural settlements in 1959-1989. The authors consider methodological and tool aspects related to the formation of a fractal model and computer experiments based on it. They have determined the values of governing factors affecting the formation of collective goal-oriented ideas about the expected migration rate and the rate of population's natural increase or decline. The results obtained can arguably be extended to a few similar regions of Russia. This study is sequel to previous works where models for the period from the middle of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century have been set forth. Modeling has demonstrated that there are two groups of settlements: migration donors and migration recipients. During the period understudy the rural population (when setting their life goals) relied mostly on migration which evidently was a depressing agent for natural increase. Nevertheless, the majority of peasant societies were open to a certain natural increase.
.

Keywords: fertility and mortality, migration, late soviet period, fractal geometry, computer model, Russian peasantry, demographic strategies, historical demography, social simulation, Central Black Earth
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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