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Mathematical Model of the Strike Movement in Russia in the Late 19th – Early 20th Centuries

Basaeva Elena Kazbekovna

PhD in Physics and Mathematics

Leading Scientific Associate, Southern Mathematical Institute of Vladikavkaz Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Docent, the department of Mathematical Analysis, North Ossetian State University named after K. L. Khetagurov

362027, Russia, respublika Severnaya osetiya-Alaniya, g. Vladikavkaz, ul. Markusa, 22, of. YuMI VNTs RAN

helen@smath.ru
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Kamenetsky Evgeny Samoilovich

Doctor of Physics and Mathematics

Lead researcher, South Mathematics Institute - Branch, Federal State Budget Science Institution of the Federal Science Center "Vladikavkaz Science Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences"

of. YuMI VNTs RAN, 22, ul. Markusa,  g. Vladikavkaz, respublika Severnaya Osetiya-Alaniya, Russia, 362027

esk@smath.ru
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Khosayeva Zarina Khetagovna

Researcher, Federal State Budget Science Institution of the Federal Science Center "Vladikavkaz Science Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences"

of. VNTs RAN, 22, ul. Markusa, g. Vladikavkaz, Russia, 362027

hzaiac83@mail.ru

DOI:

10.7256/2306-0891.2017.1.22929

Review date:

06-05-2017


Publish date:

20-05-2017


Abstract.

Dynamics of the strike movement in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries is analyzed. Multiple statistical data on workers’ fighting for their rights in this period provides for effective use of mathematical modeling to better understand the causes for workers’ protest activity increase that was especially high in 1903. In particular, one can evaluate the role of activists in the strike movement development as well as the influence of repressions on activists’ popularity. The mathematical model by Andreev A.Y. and Borodkin L.I. has been modified to describe the interaction of authorities, activists and workers. The use of the modified model to describe the strike movement dynamics is given as an example. To test the model’s adequacy the calculation data were compared with corresponding statistical indicators. The results demonstrate that the model is rather good at describing the changing strike activity in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. When the influence of activists is generally low (1895-1899), it accounts for 10-20% of the strike movement. When it reaches the critical point, the role of activists in the strike movement growth increases sharply and becomes dominating in 1902 when this point is overcome. The model is also correct at describing the general trend of decreasing repressions by the authorities and the growth of activists’ influence.

Keywords: statistical indicator, workers' strain, stressors, interaction of social groups, activists' influence, authorities' strain, critical value, normalized indicator, mathematical model, strike movement
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

References
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