Theoretical and Applied Economics
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MAIN PAGE > Journal "Theoretical and Applied Economics" > Rubric "Modern methods of prediction"
Modern methods of prediction
Milovanov M.M. - The Application of Reflexive Analysis for Short-Term Forecasting of Financial Markets pp. 1-9


Abstract:  Abstract. From quite a large number of methods of forecasting financial market such as classical technical analysis, Elliot wave theory, fundamental analysis, etc. the author choose the reflexive analysis as a research methodology.The study is based on the assumption of different origins and behavior of the trends in the short run and the long run. The fundamental behavior of financial instrument is considered as a reflexive process. The proposed method is used for short-term forecasting of futures and shares on the stock market. The forecasting technique implies the representation of the behavior of financial instrument on the market as a reflexive process. The method uses the equations where the parameters are the effects of the world on the subject and the result is the number showing the probability of an action which might be performed by the subject. The developed techniques to predict and assess the future state of financial instruments in a short run are the main findings of the study. The novelty of the research lays in the fact that it represents the behavior of a financial instrument as a reflexive process. The high degree of forecasting is achieved in the short time interval.   
Tcokova V. - The interaction of the tax base, VAT tax rate and income tax in determining the actual tax burden pp. 39-57


Abstract: The article analyzes the transformation of the main budget tax rates in Russia, such as VAT and income tax, with respect to their tax base. The tax rate does not indicate the actual level of tax burden on the taxpayer. In order to determine it, the tax rate should be considered in conjunction with the tax base. Determination of the tax base for VAT levied in foreign trade and in the domestic market under the Tax Code indicates that the tax rate significantly exceeds the rate claimed by the legislator for a given type of tax. The methodology used in the research includes analysis, synthesis as well as a graphical method. The author concludes that the VAT rate of 18% is not an indicator of the actual level of value added tax since Russia has moved away from the taxation of value added. Moreover, incorrectly determined tax base for levying VAT entails an error in calculating the income tax.
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