DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2019.1.28598

Abstract: The subject of this research is the calculation of systematic beta risk coefficients for the United States corporations, which in accordance with the A. Damodaran’s industry classification comprise the following branches: Utilities (General), Retail (Grocery and Food), Shoe, Auto&Truck, and Food Wholesalers, with the use of various techniques applied by the famous providers: Yahoo.com, NASDAQ.com, Valueline.com, Bloomberg Terminal, and Damodaran Online. The goal of this work consists in verification and comparison of calculations of the systematic beta risk coefficients for the indicated United States corporations and the substantiation of the revisions to them. The authors calculated the beta coefficients, using the revenue data of these corporation and indexed S&P500, SP500TR, and NYSE Composite; as well as time dependency of beta based on various methods of the famous providers for 43 of the oldest and most sustainable corporations in the United States. The scientific novelty is defined by the fact that the calculations conducted by the authors in accordance with various techniques for the corporations rated on the market NYSE and NASDAQ, practically align with the data of the listed providers, but drastically differ for the diverse assessment techniques applies thereof. For the branches Utilities (General) and Retail (Grocery and Food), the authors’ results for industry beta, calculated as weighted average for the industry with the weights equal to capitalization of corporations, practically coincided with the data of Damodaran Online. However, for the tree other verified industries, the author detected significant, inexplicable discrepancies, clearly related to the presence of small companies in the list of industry, which stocks are irregularly traded in over-the-counter markets.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2020.1.32202

Abstract: This article is dedicated to designing of the transport and logistics systems with built-in resistance to structural failures. The sustainability indicators reflect the impact of the failure of one or several hubs (communication channels) upon working capacity of the already functioning system. In the process of designing the system, the sustainability indicators also provide opportunities for optimizing its structure from the perspective of set reliability expectations. The authors give attention to the modeling of the transportation and logistics system on the basis of theoretical-graph toolset, as well as propose sustainability indicators and articulation of optimization task. The structure of transportation and logistics system is described using the instruments of graph theory, definition of the task is presented using the criteria of optimization theory, and limitations are the feasible solutions on graphs are established in the matrix form. The authors suggest a theoretical-graph description of the structure of the transportation and logistics systems, propose multiobjective goal setting, and introduce the concept of structural stability based on the indexes and their threshold values. Proposal is made on the approach towards designing the transport and logistics systems with set parameters of structural stability and tried it on test data.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2021.1.34965

Abstract: This article reviews the theoretical-graph approach towards transport and logistic systems, which allows describing key details and processes that take place therein. The question of searching for an effective solution of transport and logistics tasks and dependence of such solutions to throughput of the system and the value of the seepage coefficient. This article offers to use seepage theory as an applied instrument for describing and solving transport and logistics tasks. The indicated approach is innovative and original, which may be very promising in the context of global transport planning and management. The essence of this method, based on adaptation of seepage theory for solution of the typical transport and logistics tasks, is reduced to operation of surface run-off and origin on the graph. The model for assessment of the global throughput of transport and logistics system is developed on the basis of the methods of seepage and multidrain flow models. The author offers a model calculation of the impact of holdups upon transport and logistics systems and the tasks solved thereof. A theoretical-graph model, which reflects the structure of transport and logistics system, describes the objects and processes common to transport and logistics tasks. The toolset of graph theory allows solving the specific transport and logistics tasks, as well examining the structural properties of the system, building predictive models, as well as developing new approaches towards solving of these tasks. The characteristics of graph are correlated with the actual network, system and task, as well as with the characteristics of transport or logistics flows examined for the purpose of optimization of topological structure of the system and solution of other tasks.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2021.2.33336

Abstract: The subject of this research is the Solow Growth Model. The relevance is substantiated by the fact that the Solow Growth Model is conceptually simple, and simultaneously it can be complicated with clarifications and additions. The authors believe that one of such clarification is consideration of the demand as a stochastic variable. The goal of this research is to propose a model that takes into account the random nature of consumer demand based on the Solow Growth Model. The article aims to examine the Solow Growth model; conduct a literature overview of the most common modifications of the model; analyze the well-known modifications and complications of the model; outline the methods of such modifications and complications; offer Solow Growth Model supplemented with microeconomic substantiation with consideration of the stochastic demand. The article employs the methods of analysis, synthesis, comparison, and differential calculus. The novelty lies in the statement  that consumption depends on demand; it is intuitively obvious that demand can be considered as stochastic variable. This is explained by the individual traits of the consumers. Therefore, the demand can be described via stochastic differential equation based on the standard Wiener process (analogy with Brownian motion). The article offers a stochastic differential equation of demand. The Solow Growth Model is supplemented with the stochastic differential equation of demand. In conclusion, the authors determine the key modification and complication trends of the Solow Growth Model; developed the model based on the Solow Growth Model with the stochastic differential equation of demand as its addition. Further research should be aimed at solution of the obtained mathematical model supplemented with the stochastic differential equation of demand.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2022.2.36623

EDN: TDKDOW

Abstract: The development of the tourism sector of the economy is one of the priorities set by the leadership of the Krasnodar Territory and the Russian Federation. Thus, the construction of a model of the influence of tourist flows on the stability of the territory is very relevant. The object of the study is the interconnected economic, social and ecological system of the resort destination. The subject of the study is the interaction of key indicators affecting the sustainability of a tourist destination and tourist flows. The work is aimed at building an integrated computer model that can be used for: -studying the interaction of key variables; - conducting scenario analysis and modeling to determine the possible consequences of management decisions.The authors develop a single synthetic model that combines social, economic and environmental aspects of the subject of research. This model is evaluated using an adjusted net savings indicator and allows us to study the trends in the development of the tourism sector, as well as to conduct a scenario analysis of the consequences of various management decisions. Using this tool for medium- and long-term planning will give the decision-maker more information in conditions of uncertainty, which will avoid many managerial mistakes. In the future, it is planned to refine and adjust the model using new statistical data; to conduct computational experiments to identify economic trends in the impact of integrated programs and scenarios for the development of the tourism sector.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2018.1.19836

Abstract: The subject of this research is the impact of the corruption component of the institutional environment upon the investment decisions of agents and the size of public gain. Within the framework of incomplete contract, it is demonstrated that consideration of the corruption component leads to one of two cases, one of which could be interpreted as extortion, and the other – as conclusion of a mutually beneficial corrupt deal. Special attention is given to the analysis of the capabilities of the agents for maximization of their personal gains, which are defined by their stimuli towards carrying out investments into the growth of mutual profit. It is demonstrated that in the case of extortion the stimuli of the agents diminish, resulting in the decrease of public gain. The determination is made on the existence of the baseline level of stake of the “corrupt tax”, exceeding which makes it preferable to transfer the right to leftover profit to the bribe extortionist. It is demonstrated that widespread practice of corrupt cooperation can lead to negative deformation of the structure of national economy.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2022.4.38996

EDN: MCDNRP

Abstract: This article discusses the problems of estimating the projects cost for decommissioning nuclear and radiation hazardous facilities based on BIM data. The software developed at Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences for planning and analyzing decommissioning facilities at the pre-project stage processes is described. In particular, the software main functions are demonstrated: evaluation of the dismantling and decontamination works cost, forecasting the waste generated volume, technological processes planning and the safe waste management cost evaluation, results analysis taking into account the uncertainty of the initial data and sensitivity analysis. The scientific novelty consists in the development by a team of authors of software for financial and economic planning of decommissioning of nuclear and radiation hazardous facilities on the basis of digital information 3D models of objects being created. The need for such development is conditioned by the requirements for systematization and analysis of data on nuclear waste at the preparatory stage for the selection of effective technologies for dismantling and decontamination works and management of radioactive waste, as well as to improve the efficiency of individual decommissioning projects and the Federal Target Program "Providing Nuclear and Radiation Safety for 2016-2020 and for the period up to year 2035" generally.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2021.1.27680

Abstract: The subject of this research is the processes of price formation for raw materials depending on the demand for end consumer products. The article reviews a mathematical model that is based on the principle of maximum utility. The proposed model is founded on the stage-by-stage determination of the production output and consumption of end products, as well as corresponding prices depending on the prices of used raw materials and semi-finished products. The prices for intermediate products and raw materials are formed depending on the need for end products output with their optimization by demand. The article provides the basic mathematical ration with regards to using principle of maximum utility applicable to the demand-supply model and its implementation in multi-stage production. The acquired results indicate weak dependence of production output and prices for end products on the cost of raw material in terms of advanced refining. With limited production capacity of raw materials, the dynamics of prices is well predicted. The results of modeling, compared to the available statistical data, indicate the adequacy of the proposed model to the unfolding economic processes. It is determined that the accuracy of price prediction for raw products with a significant volume of its subsequent processing is limited.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2019.3.24404

Abstract: The subject of this study is the system of state regulation of the ecological and socioeconomic situation. A conceptual model of territorial management in the form of a stratification of government structures on the basis of a social conditions manifold (on the principle of separation of power) is created. The model is implemented in the form of a periodic system (organization of organizations) that commutatively combines all independent institutions of activities. To formalize the model, the concepts of institutional approach and polysystem stratification (fiber bundling) were used. The situation is described by model of sustainable development, which is based on the idea of both, conservation of nature and development of society. The model refers to the paradigm of public administration as a network phenomenon of interaction between management entities. The organization of territorial management must have the quality of functional completeness, i.e. ability to solve any problem with own means. A mathematical model of the process forming the completeness of the implementation of the system function of territorial management is proposed. It is proved that in the organization of territorial management there should not be special institutional bodies responsible only for conservation and rational environmental management. All governing bodies through specialized departments are obliged to fully implement these tasks within their competences.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2019.1.21085

Abstract: This article discusses the application of Kalman filter for estimating parameters of economic systems using two methods: maximum likelihood and minimization of root mean square prediction error. The author examines the integrated system of foreign exchange market and stock markets in Russia. Different behavioral strategies of foreign exchange market participants are reflected. Particularly, the author builds and analyzes a simple model of dollar to ruble rate, which considers the changes in oil prices and money transactions between the foreign exchange and stock markets with up to three days lag. The parameter estimation is carried out in accordance with daily data of the dollar to ruble rate, oil prices and the MICEX index from November 1, 2015 to December 20, 2015.  Along with the evident instantaneous actions of the foreign exchange market participants, the author detected the shift of the dollar to ruble rate in the same direction as the MICEX index with two days delay, as well as the same direction as the oil price with the three days lag. The article provides economic interpretation of the obtained system parameters.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2020.1.32328

Abstract: The object of this research is the methods of multi-criteria selection. The subject of this research is the problems of application of hierarchical method of randomized composite indicators in solving the problems of multi-criteria selection. It is noted that in gradual synthesis of composite indicators of the highest hierarchical level, it is impossible to obtain the exact values or assessment of probabilities of dominance of the compared objects. Structuring the exhaustive set of values of weight vector of hierarchy allows obtaining these probabilities, but such approach is applicable only in case of small number of characteristics of the compared objects. For solving this task, the author employs Monte Carlo method, consisting in formation of random sample from exhaustive set of weigh vector of hierarchy and sequential assessment of essential characteristics. The article suggests the procedure for assessing probability characteristics of randomized composite indicators. The author develops and presents the software written on the R platform for realization of this procedure. An example of comparison of the investment projects, when selection is based on the probability of dominance, rather than the composite indicators, is demonstrated.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2020.2.30039

Abstract: This article examines Jordan’s tourism revenue over the recent years. Tourism is a substantial source of national revenue and significantly contributes to the flow of foreign currency for the development of national economy. The economic theory claims that tourism revenue is affected by a wide range of factors. The article explores the impact of consumer price index and number of tourists upon Jordan’s tourism revenue. In the course of this study, the author used the statistical data of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund; applied Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL); and conducted necessary diagnostic tests in Eviews 9 software. The research demonstrated that high internal inflation ratios reduce the external demand for tourism services in Jordan, and thus significantly decrease the tourism revenue. Over a long-term, the author determines a negative influence of consumer price index upon tourism revenue in Jordan and the expected positive influence of the number of tourists thereof.  

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2018.4.23133

Abstract:   The object of this research is the assessment of poverty at the individual level; while the subject is the efficiency of implementation of mathematical modelling for the dynamic assessment of the impact of microcredit upon the financial well-being of clients of microlenders. The scientific interest towards this topic is substantiated by the constantly growing demand for microcredit products among the poor social groups of the Kyrgyz Republic, mostly from rural districts; promotion of microlending in strategic documents of country’s development, and the concurrent absence of formalized instruments allowing to measure the progress of elevation from poverty as a result of microlending. The logistic regression, which allows assessing the likelihood of poverty at the individual level, was selected as basis for creating the formalized instrument. The scientific novelty consists in the development of comprehensive methodology for structuring the model of likelihood of poverty, which accounts for only the demographic profile of a family, its income and expenses, but also possession of long-term use goods and earning assets. The results of this research produced the instrument that can be used by microlenders for objective assessment of the impact of microlending upon the clients’ well-being.  

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2017.4.22697

Abstract: The object of this research is the constituents of the Far Eastern Federal Okrug. The article carries out a comparative analysis of the results of express-evaluation according to the authorial methodology with rating scores, conducted by the National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, National Association of Innovations and Development of Information Technologies, and Association of Innovative Regions of Russia for 2014. The author provides the formula for econometric evaluations and a list of statistical indexes of the academic organizations, business, and states that characterize contribution of the triad in development of the regional innovation economy. The suggested methodology of rating express-evaluation of the level of regional innovation development leans on the concept of the Triple Helix model. Econometric evaluations in accordance with the indicated methodology allow conducting rapid assessment of the level of innovation development of a region and effectiveness of contribution of the academic organizations, business, and states in the cumulative overall performance of innovation development of a subject based on their minimal key statistical indexes in the area of scientific innovation activity. The evaluation results conducted using the author’s methodology demonstrate can be valuable for the executive government authorities, business structures, academic organizations for rapid analysis and adoption of various organizational-administrative decisions on development of the regional innovation activity.

DOI: 10.25136/2409-8647.2018.3.27347

Abstract: The object of this research is the theoretical-methodological grounds of the placement of industrial cluster businesses in the Russian regions. The subject of this research is the improvement of methodological instrumentarium for solving the problem of spatial localization of industrial clusters in the region. The goal of this work lies in development of the economic-mathematical model of clusterization of the economy, which expands the methodological potential of optimal placement of cluster initiatives within the Russian economic space. Special attention is given to the peculiarities of cluster development process that determine the initial conditions for finding an optimal placement and long-term growth of industrial production in the cluster. The article applies the modern approaches towards economic-mathematical modelling, as well as systematization of geostatistical methods. The author considers the problems of optimization of placement of the new alongside the development of already existing production facilities in the process of realization of cluster initiative; generalizes the approaches to economic-mathematical modelling of the process of formation and development of industrial clusters. The article also formulates the criteria for optimal placement and prospective development of the cluster businesses.