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Anatomy of Credit Cycles: a Case of Russia
Burakov Dmitry Vladimirovich

PhD in Economics

senior lecturer of the Department of Money and Credit Relations and Monetary Policy at Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

125993, Russia, Moskva oblast', g. Moscow, Leningradskii prospekt, 49

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Amplification of the amplitude and frequency of crises phenomena on the credit market has become a serious challenge for academic society and monetary regulation authorities. The growth of financial instability, large-scale realization of "systemic" risk, which are based on cyclic processes in monetary sphere, have once once again highlighted the relevance of research. The need to identify causality between credit cycles in Russia and various macroeconomic variables identifies the subject of this study. The subject of study is the set of economic relations associated with lending to non-financial sector on the example of Russia. Main research methods include a mathematical-statistical method. The study is based on the use of regression analysis and vector autoregression modelling (VAR). The composition of the sample includes values of selected variables at the macroeconomic level on the example of Russia. The sample period is January 2005 – June 2016, reference period for the sample include monthly values of the variables. In the result of the study we determined structural and causal relationship between bank credit supply in Russia and selected macroeconomic variables. Testing of our hypotheses shows that on the Russian market of corporate credit there are several empirical anomalies that contradict the basic provisions of imperfect credit market theory(such as pricing and operating anomalies).

Keywords: exchange rate, corporate lending, bank capital, key rate, inflation, bank, credit cycle, credit, non-performing loans, loan loss reserves



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