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Theoretical and Applied Economics
Reference:

Methodological Approaches to Scenario Forecastign of the System of Public Catering in Russian Regions

Elshin Leonid Alekseevich

Doctor of Economics

senior researcher at Center for Strategic Assessment and Forecasts of the Institute of Management, Economics and Finance, Kazan Federal University

420139, Russia, respublika Tatarstan, g. Kazan', ul. Ostrovskogo, 23/1

Leonid.Elshin@tatar.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 
Gayazov Zufar Faridovich

lecturer of the Department of Hotel and Travel Business at Institute of Management, Economics and Law (Kazan)

420111, Russia, Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan, str. Moskovskaya, 42

A_r_t_a_t@mail.ru
Prygunova Mariya Igorevna

researcher at Center of Advanced Economic Research in the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan

420111, Russia, Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan, Ostrovsky's str., 23

mariya.prigunova@tatar.ru
Другие публикации этого автора
 

 

DOI:

10.7256/2409-8647.2016.4.19913

Review date:

31-07-2016


Publish date:

24-01-2017


Abstract: The subject of the research is a set of factors defining unique parameters of the development of regional public catering systems. The sector of public catering plays an important role in Russia's population employment just like in all developed countries (the share of people employed in the public catering sector reaches 0.92% of the total number of employed people). It is also important for the development of small and medium businesses (the share of business entities working in the sphere of public catering is 1.27% of the total number of business enterprises), and tourist sphere. The authors of the article emphasize the need for the differentiated approach to analyzing regional development strategies of the aforesaid economic sector. Based on that, the authors present results of the cluster analysis which allows to divide Russian Federation regions into groups depending on the key factors of the public catering development. The authors' contributoin to the topic is that they offer their own algorithm for identifying key areas in accordance with the defined peculiarities of the regional development. Quite interesting (from the research point of view) is a discovedred fact that for a number of regions referred to clusters 'Leaders', 'Outsiders' and 'Prospective Leaders', the dynamics of investments into the main capital in the sphere of public catering did not have a considerable influence on the dynamics of the turnover in the aforesaid economic sector. This creates a research basis for studying alternative factors of increasing the turnover. 


Keywords: forecasting, factorial analysis, sustainable development of the region, tourist sector, economic-mathematical modeling, turnover of public catering, cluster analysis, service trade, scenario modeling, regions of the Russian Federation
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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