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Expectations and Their Influence on Parameters of Economic Cyclic Development
Elshin Leonid Alekseevich
PhD in Economics
senior researcher at Center for Strategic Assessment and Forecasts of the Institute of Management, Economics and Finance, Kazan Federal University
420139, Russia, respublika Tatarstan, g. Kazan', ul. Ostrovskogo, 23/1
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Leonid.Elshin@tatar.ru
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Prygunova Mariya Igorevna
researcher at Center of Advanced Economic Research in the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan
420111, Russia, Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan, Ostrovsky's str., 23
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mariya.prigunova@tatar.ru
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Другие публикации этого автора
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Abstract. The subject of the research is the combinatin of factors defining parameters of expectations of economic agents generating, first of all, phase shifts of economic cycles. The authors examine the structure of factors of the institutional and conjunctural order, and their influence on priority development cycles representing trends of short-, medium- and long-term expectations of economic entities. Special attention is paid to the questions of evaluating the influence of the aforesaid set of factors on the horizons of phase shifts inside economic cycles (based on the example of the Russian Federation economy). The given rsearch is based on the implementation of taxonomic analysis methods which most of all create the credibility of assessment. Results of the analysis allow to define the nature of the cyclic development of the Russian Federation economy in 1996 - 2015 with a preceding lag indicator of 1-2 years which allows to develop an important prognostic potential of the model and to predict turning points of each cycle depending on the contents of factors and sizes of their lag indic ators.
Keywords:
economic-mathematical modeling, forecasting, phase shifts, expectations of economic agents, economic cycles, theory of cyclic development, factorial analysis, cycles of advancing development, index of economic development, index of social well-being
DOI: 10.7256/2409-8647.2016.4.19790
Article was received:
22-07-2016
Review date:
24-07-2016
Publish date:
24-01-2017
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian
here
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