Expectations and Their Influence on Parameters of Economic Cyclic Development

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Abstract: The subject of the research is the combinatin of factors defining parameters of expectations of economic agents generating, first of all, phase shifts of economic cycles. The authors examine the structure of factors of the institutional and conjunctural order, and their influence on priority development cycles representing trends of short-, medium- and long-term expectations of economic entities. Special attention is paid to the questions of evaluating the influence of the aforesaid set of factors on the horizons of phase shifts inside economic cycles (based on the example of the Russian Federation economy). The given rsearch is based on the implementation of taxonomic analysis methods which most of all create the credibility of assessment. Results of the analysis allow to define the nature of the cyclic development of the Russian Federation economy in 1996 - 2015 with a preceding lag indicator of 1-2 years which allows to develop an important prognostic potential of the model and to predict turning points of each cycle depending on the contents of factors and sizes of their lag indic ators.