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Publications of Kanishchev Valery Vladimirovich
Historical informatics, 2020-3
Zhukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. - Factors of Demographic Processes in Russian Agrarian Society in the Second Half of the 19th Ц Late 20th Centuries (Tambov Region Data) pp. 89-102

DOI:
10.7256/2585-7797.2020.3.33820

Abstract: This paper outlines factors that impacted the change of demographic behavior of the rural population of the Central Black Earth Region from the middle of the 19th century to the late 20th century. Factor scores have been determined when modeling demographic processes in 1,500 rural settlements. The authors rely on a classical view that late traditional society was highly dependent on negative natural events, characterized by low migration and strong ties of birth rates with death rates. It has been shown that extraordinary positive factors (the rise of zemstvo medicine in particular) stimulated unlimited natural growth. Short-term stress factors (wars, hunger and epidemics) led to compensatory reproduction. The authors also come to a conclusion that modernized society (the latter half of the 20th century) had more complicated relations between demographic behavior factors. The evolution of modernized micro-communities (individual settlements) was subjected to a great number of nonlinear effects. The data demonstrate that the agrarian society at the time continued the move to natural growth although to a lesser extent than during the previous stages. However, the results of such an intention were largely neutralized by migration.
Historical informatics, 2017-1
Zhukov D.S., Kanishchev V.V., Lyamin S.K. - The Study of Peasant Disturbances Intensity in European Russia in the Second Half of the 19th Century by Means of Self-Organized Criticality Theory pp. 38-51

DOI:
10.7256/2306-0891.2017.1.22145

Abstract: The article presents the results of analysis of long time data series reflecting the intensity of peasant disturbances in various guberniyas of European Russia in the second half of the 19th century by means of self-organized criticality theory . The types of peasant protests are presented that depend on the regularity of protest intensity fluctuations in different guberniyas. It has been found that the population density and the average allotment of land exerted the most powerful influence on the formation of protest potential. A hypothesis has been proposed and substantiated that the presence of pink noise in changes of peasant disturbances intensity means that most of regional communities were in a critical state. This demonstrates serious risks of system stability throughout the period understudy. Inner social environment and structural features existed that led to leaping fluctuations and unexpected increase of peasant disturbances. Regional communities were prone to uprisings under the influence of quite usual factors.
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