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Publications of Timoshenko Andrei Anatol'evich
National Security, 2023-3
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V., Timoshenko A.A. - Scenario Methods for Assessing the Efficiency of Legal Regulation of the Socio-Economic Systems Development Processes under Uncertainty pp. 1-31

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2023.3.40444

Abstract: The article deals with the study of methodological problems of increasing the effectiveness of legislative regulation of Russian society and the state socio-economic development processes in the face of severe sanctions pressure from Western countries led by the United States. A complex of problems of improving the quality of law-making processes is considered. To assess the effectiveness of legal norms, it is proposed to use criteria and mechanisms for evaluating their efficiency, reflecting the degree of the goals set achievement in the process of their development, taking into account the costs and expended resources of various types. To solve the problems of advanced assessment of the developed legal norms effectiveness, it is proposed to use the scenario analysis methodology, which provides the possibility of information support and assessment of the quality of regulatory and legal decisions development and implementation within the framework of lawmaking processes. The approach proposed for solving the problems under consideration is based on the development and study of simulation models that allow analyzing a wide class of processes and phenomena in the legal, socio-political and socio-economic spheres. The results obtained in the course of the study allow to conclude that it is expedient to introduce the scenario-forecasting expertise procedures into the practice of drafting legislative acts, their analysis and efficiency evaluation (including the assessment of the effectiveness of law enforcement practice), which will complement the set of currently used procedures for the comprehensive examination of draft laws (legal, juridical-technical, criminological, anti-corruption, linguistic, etc.).
Security Issues, 2019-4
Shul'ts V.L., Bochkarev S.A., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V., Timoshenko A.A. - Scenario analysis of the problems of transformation of law enforcement system in the conditions of digitalization pp. 36-65

DOI:
10.25136/2409-7543.2019.4.30588

Abstract: This article is dedicated to methodological and applied problems of increasing the effectiveness of managing transformation of law enforcement system of the Russian Federation in the context of the advanced information society. The work provides the results of analysis of the current challenges of countering the threats of national and public security in the information sphere, as well as the present state and development trends of cybercrime. The authors explore the tasks for improvement of the principles, methods, functions and techniques of the work of law enforcement system in the conditions of the development of information society and the resulting new threats to social security thereof. For increasing the efficiency of solving the applied and practical tasks in managing transformation of law enforcement system in the conditions of digitalization, the authors suggest using the methodology of scenario analysis that provides information support and quality assessment of preparation and implementation of solutions within the framework of management of the indicated processes. The article presents the results of a complex multifactor analysis of the problems of creation the unified investigative body, acquired in studying the multigraph model. Methodological framework contains the suggested approach based on the anticipatory scenario analysis and modeling the processes of development of situations at hand in the political-legal, sociopolitical, socioeconomic and information spheres, as well as in the external environment. The work is conducted with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research in terms of the scientific project No.18-29-16151” Development of the Methods of Managing Transformation of Law in the Conditions of Digital Technology”.
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