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Publications of Kul'ba Vladimir Vasil'evich
National Security, 2023-5
Shul'ts V.L., Chernov I.V., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B. - Scenario planning in national security management: methodological foundations pp. 36-61

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2023.5.68806

Abstract: The article deals with the study of methodological problems of increasing the efficiency of planning and management of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation in context of uncertainty and risk. The results of the analysis of the main features of national security as a subject area and a complex object of public administration management are presented. The main features of management processes to ensure Russia's national security within the framework of closely interconnected external and internal contours of the subject area under consideration are highlighted. The analysis of the problems and tasks of planning as the central function of the national security management process, which determines the ways to achieve the goals set in the conditions of continuous changes in the external and internal environments, as well as the threats and challenges associated with them, is carried out. To improve the efficiency of managing processes to ensure national security, it is proposed to use a scenario approach, which provides the possibility to develop a complex of planning and management decisions taking into account the alternatives for the future events at the management object and in the external environment under uncertainty and risk. The basic strategies for using scenarios in the processes of long-term and medium-term planning are highlighted and the results of evaluating the effectiveness of various approaches to converting scenarios into concrete plans are presented. The results of the analysis showed that the use of the developed automation technology for scenario-forecast research based on the signed oriented graphs mathematical model as a means of information support for the decision-making processes significantly expands the possibilities of using the scenarios as the planning processes basis in order to increase the validity, efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability of the developed plans and programs.
National Security, 2023-3
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V., Timoshenko A.A. - Scenario Methods for Assessing the Efficiency of Legal Regulation of the Socio-Economic Systems Development Processes under Uncertainty pp. 1-31

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2023.3.40444

Abstract: The article deals with the study of methodological problems of increasing the effectiveness of legislative regulation of Russian society and the state socio-economic development processes in the face of severe sanctions pressure from Western countries led by the United States. A complex of problems of improving the quality of law-making processes is considered. To assess the effectiveness of legal norms, it is proposed to use criteria and mechanisms for evaluating their efficiency, reflecting the degree of the goals set achievement in the process of their development, taking into account the costs and expended resources of various types. To solve the problems of advanced assessment of the developed legal norms effectiveness, it is proposed to use the scenario analysis methodology, which provides the possibility of information support and assessment of the quality of regulatory and legal decisions development and implementation within the framework of lawmaking processes. The approach proposed for solving the problems under consideration is based on the development and study of simulation models that allow analyzing a wide class of processes and phenomena in the legal, socio-political and socio-economic spheres. The results obtained in the course of the study allow to conclude that it is expedient to introduce the scenario-forecasting expertise procedures into the practice of drafting legislative acts, their analysis and efficiency evaluation (including the assessment of the effectiveness of law enforcement practice), which will complement the set of currently used procedures for the comprehensive examination of draft laws (legal, juridical-technical, criminological, anti-corruption, linguistic, etc.).
Security Issues, 2019-4
Shul'ts V.L., Bochkarev S.A., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V., Timoshenko A.A. - Scenario analysis of the problems of transformation of law enforcement system in the conditions of digitalization pp. 36-65

DOI:
10.25136/2409-7543.2019.4.30588

Abstract: This article is dedicated to methodological and applied problems of increasing the effectiveness of managing transformation of law enforcement system of the Russian Federation in the context of the advanced information society. The work provides the results of analysis of the current challenges of countering the threats of national and public security in the information sphere, as well as the present state and development trends of cybercrime. The authors explore the tasks for improvement of the principles, methods, functions and techniques of the work of law enforcement system in the conditions of the development of information society and the resulting new threats to social security thereof. For increasing the efficiency of solving the applied and practical tasks in managing transformation of law enforcement system in the conditions of digitalization, the authors suggest using the methodology of scenario analysis that provides information support and quality assessment of preparation and implementation of solutions within the framework of management of the indicated processes. The article presents the results of a complex multifactor analysis of the problems of creation the unified investigative body, acquired in studying the multigraph model. Methodological framework contains the suggested approach based on the anticipatory scenario analysis and modeling the processes of development of situations at hand in the political-legal, sociopolitical, socioeconomic and information spheres, as well as in the external environment. The work is conducted with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research in terms of the scientific project No.18-29-16151” Development of the Methods of Managing Transformation of Law in the Conditions of Digital Technology”.
Trends and management, 2017-4
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V., Bogatyryova L.V. - Analysis of the methods of group administration of the development of Arctic zone of the Russian Federation pp. 35-51

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0730.2017.4.24848

Abstract: This article is dedicated to the methodological and applied problems of increasing the efficiency of administrative processes of the socioeconomic development of Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in the current conditions. The authors provide the results of analysis of the basic peculiarities of the Arctic zone of Russia as a complex large-scale and spatially distributed administrative objects, as well as the priority projects of the development of the Russian North. The article describes the main peculiarities of administrative processes of the socioeconomic development of Arctic zone and determines the basic groups of factors that substantially complicate the administrative processes of the development of Arctic zone using the traditional methods and approaches. In the course of this research, were examined the various schemes and mechanism of group administration, as well as presented the results of analysis of the efficient application of matrix organizational structures of group administration. The authors introduce the core formalized model of group administration of the socioeconomic systems that allows proceeding to the further mathematical description of its dynamic characteristics. The aforementioned model is also the basis for the development of solution methods of the complex of applied and practical tasks aimed at increasing the efficiency of group administration in terms of the emerging at the final stage scenarios of development of the examined system. The authors create the integrated hierarchical organizational structure of group administration of the development of Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, as well as formulate the promising directions of fundamental and applied studies in the area of development of the indicated methodological approach.
National Security, 2017-3
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. - Analysis of tasks of information management in the context of globalization pp. 34-85

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2017.3.21740

Abstract:   The results of carried out analysis of the essence, key functions as well as strategic and tactical tasks of information management are presented. The tasks for the formation and support of the ideology of national development, formation of human potential and social stability ensuring are considered as the basic functions of information management.   It is shown that in the current international situation, characterized by severe geopolitical confrontation the information management should be focused on the achievement of the two groups of strategic objectives: creative (to ensure sustainable domestic socio - economic development) and protective (to protect the development of Russian society from external threats).   In order to solve the applied and practical problems of improving the efficiency of information management. it is proposed to use the methodology of the systemic analysis of the consequences of information, economic and political interactions in the community, as well as scenario analysis of complex information confrontation processes. The results of the analysis have shown that under present conditions the crucial  task of information management consists in ensuring harmonization and coordination processes of the effective protection of sovereignty of the Russian society and the state from external and provoked from outside internal threats, as well as to preserving and developing its own model of a man, society, system of meanings, moral and historical values. Successful solution of this interrelated set of tasks is a necessary condition for ensuring the civilizational, political, economic, and informational independence of the Russian state. For effective counteraction, the informational aggression is now especially needed the purposeful and thoughtful structural transformation of the information security of the state, as well as the creation of a powerful and effective scientific-methodological base for providing information sovereignty of the country. Practical use of the results of research contribute to the formation of a unified state multilevel information management system, which would play a key role in the crisis-free sustainable socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.  
Trends and management, 2017-2
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. - Information management on the basis of scenario approach in the context of geopolitical confrontation pp. 65-109

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0730.2017.2.20447

Abstract: The paper represents the methodological and applied problems of improving the efficiency of information management processes based on scenario approach in the context of significant escalation of the crisis in relations between Western countries and Russia. The work presents the results of the analysis of the basic methods, capabilities and instruments of information aggression of the Western countries headed by the US to destabilize the situation in Russian Federation. It examines the methodology of information management based on the indirect information impact to control the public consciousness. The problems of organizing effective counteraction to negative impacts of the activities of foreign non-governmental and externally funded domestic non-commercial organizations, mass media and social networks are analyzed. In order to solve the applied and practical problems of improving the efficiency of information management and countering external information aggression the methodology of simulation and scenario analysis of the complex information confrontation processes are proposed. The results of the scenario study of the developed basic multi-graph management models of countering information threats using the mathematical technique of functional iconic digraphs are represented. The scenario research carried out by the authors, in particular, showed that the main task of information management in current international situation is to ensure harmonization and consistency of efforts for effective protection of sovereignty of the Russian society and state against external threats, consolidation of civil society and development of its moral and historical values.
Security Issues, 2016-3
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. - Scenario analysis in regional security management pp. 41-79

DOI:
10.7256/2409-7543.2016.3.19157

Abstract: The paper is devoted to the methodological and practical problems of regional security management improvement in the context of globalization, intensification of contradictions between the Western countries and Russia, and the instability in the global economic system. The authors analyze the main external and internal threats to regional security; demonstrate the results of analysis of the main peculiarities of regional security management including those related to the Russian regions development disparity. The study considers the main principles of social stability monitoring organization, and the mechanisms of scenario analysis application in a region’s socio-economic development management, and provision of its protection from external and internal threats to social stability. The paper demonstrates the results of the scenario analysis of the developed multigraph model of regional security management and social stability provision in the context of globalization. Problems of regional security management are solved on the base of the methodology of regional security management effectiveness assessment based on the scenario approach and simulation modeling using the set of functional signed graphs. The analysis shows that the main peculiarity of regional security management in the context of globalization is the need for a coordinated solution of two basic sets of tasks: provision of sustainable socio-economic development of a region and its protection from external and internal threats to social stability. The scenario analysis use for regional security management helps detect the threats to social stability, ensure a complex assessment of their prospective danger, and assess the effectiveness of measures of threats prevention. 
Trends and management, 2015-3
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. - Regional security management: Analyzing the efficiency of social stability monitoring

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0730.2015.3.16048

Abstract: The paper is focused on the methodological and applied issues of development regional security management processes. In this work, the basic principles of organization of social stability monitoring are being examined. The results of the analysis of mass media and social networks monitoring effectiveness are presented. The set of basic technological tasks of monitoring automation is considered. The results of the analysis of the problems of the conception and use of key performance indicators for regional security management processes are presented. The basic requirements for such indicators are formulated. The results of the analysis of the main paths for improving the efficiency of the social stability monitoring systems using the modified I.-M. Marty chart are presented. The solution for regional security management problems is formulated using the scenario analysis methodology, it’s the initial data base including monitoring data on social stability in the region. The results of the analysis conducted have shown that information technologies of monitoring must be built on the set of target indicators of social stability in order provide the necessary level of efficiency and completeness of information for effective decision-making. The use of the modified I.-M. Marty chart and the sets of indicators developed on this basis can significantly improve the efficiency of monitoring by streamlining data flows and reducing non-productive costs of data collecting and processing.
National Security, 2015-2
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. - Information management under the conditions of globalization and geopolitical confrontation

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2015.2.14622

Abstract: This work is dedicated to the methodological and applied problems of improving the processes of information management under the circumstances of globalization and increase of tensions between the Western countries and Russia, as well as the instability of the global economy. The article presents the results of the analysis of the processes of the Complex Geopolitical Information Confrontation (CGIC) under the conditions of the growing international tensions as a result of the crisis in Ukraine. The authors review the problems associated with organizing an effective countermeasure against foreign and domestic destructive information influences, based on manipulative technologies and aimed at social destabilization of the country. Analysis is conducted on the negative influence of the activities of foreign non-governmental noncommercial organizations with outside financing upon the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. The conducted scenario analyses demonstrated that the most important tasks at hand are the creation of a unified multilevel system of state management of protection of information sovereignty of the country, as well as provision of an efficient coordination of actions for deflection of the destructive information campaigns.
National Security, 2014-5
Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Shelkov A.B., Chernov I.V. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2014.5.13061

Abstract:
Trends and management, 2014-4
Shelkov A.B., Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0730.2014.4.10281

Abstract:
National Security, 2014-2
Shelkov A.B., Shul'ts V.L., Kul'ba V.V., Chernov I.V. -

DOI:
10.7256/2454-0668.2014.2.11319

Abstract:
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