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Publications of Elshin Leonid Alekseevich
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2023-4
Elshin L.A., Mingazova Y.G., Savushkin M.V., Mingulov A.M. - Selective approaches to the definition of mechanisms for the implementation of import substitution policy at the regional level pp. 105-123


Abstract: The subject of the study is the economic relations of the regions of the Russian Federation within the framework of foreign trade relations with non-CIS countries. The regions of the Volga Federal District of Russia are the object of research. The authors consider in detail such aspects of the topic as structural parameters of supplies of goods from abroad to the regions of the Volga Federal District; justification of their critical level in the context of the studied commodity groups and country differentiation; development of proposals aimed at the formation of selective and adaptive measures for the implementation of the import substitution policy to regional peculiarities. Particular attention is paid to the issues of substantiating the doctrine of the need for a selective regional strategy for the implementation of import substitution policy under sanctions pressure, which provides for the need to abandon frontal measures of state support in the sphere of emerging perturbations of external inter-cooperative relations. The main conclusion of the study is the need to implement a selective strategy for adapting the national economy to the localization of imports of goods and services based on the identification of regional features of import dependence in the context of key commodity groups. A special contribution of the authors to the study of the topic is the identification of possible threats to the sustainable development of regional economic systems in the context of sanctions, taking into account the structural analysis of import supplies from unfriendly countries. Based on the review, systematization and analysis of data from the Federal Customs Service, the key parameters of critical imports for the regions of the Volga Federal District are identified and the concept of implementing an adaptive import substitution policy is proposed.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2022-3
Elshin L.A., Gafarov M.R., Савушкин М.В. - Strategic guidelines for import substitution in Russia in the context of systemic transformations pp. 60-71


Abstract: The subject of the study is the parameters and key features of the structure and volume of imports of the Russian Federation. The authors consider in detail the key aspects and trends of the import of foreign products of final and intermediate consumption in the Russian Federation, highlight the risks and threats to the sustainable development of the Russian economy in the context of ongoing systemic transformations caused by the sanctions confrontation that escalated in 2022. The logic and tools of the implemented empirical assessments are based on a theoretical and methodological analysis of determining the strategic guidelines for the formation of foreign trade and the tools produced to assess its effectiveness, and also relies on the approach proposed by the authors to determine the priorities of import substitution policy, taking into account the "severity" of the problem and prospects for economic development. The main conclusion of the study is the need to intensify import substitution processes in the most vulnerable areas of supplies of goods and components to the Russian Federation (machinery, equipment and equipment, chemical industry products, metals and products made of them, plastics, rubber and rubber) from the so-called unfriendly countries (Western European states, USA and Japan, etc.) Given that they account for about 28.5% of imports to Russia, restrictions on further supplies of goods from these countries pose serious risks to the sustainable socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the short term. The novelty and theoretical significance of the study lies in the proposed concept of choosing an import substitution policy depending on the degree of vulnerability of individual industries to localization of import supplies, as well as depending on the scale of the risks of sustainable development of the national economy.
Finance and Management, 2022-3
Elshin L.A., Burganov R.T., Gafarov M.R. - Scientific and Technological Progress and its Role in Ensuring Inclusive Economic Growth of the Region (on the Example of the Republic of Tatarstan) pp. 20-40


Abstract: The subject of the study is economic relations regarding the formation and development of an inclusive model of economic growth in the region in the context of scientific and technological progress. The Republic of Tatarstan acts as the object of research. Based on the use of the methodological tools of the World Economic Forum adapted to regional socio-economic systems, aggregated indices of inclusive development of the region's economy are being developed, followed by the construction on this basis of a production function that provides an empirical assessment of the impact of STP on the inclusive type of formation of regional economic dynamics. Particular attention is paid to the issues and patterns in the field of ongoing changes in the demand for labor in various sectors of the national economy in the context of a change in technological structure, which generates systemic and structural distortions and forms appropriate models of inclusive economic growth in the regions. The main conclusions of the study are well-founded, within the framework of the use of economic and mathematical apparatus, arguments proving that the role of scientific and technological development in the system of intensification of inclusive economic growth is not only comparable with such a productive factor as "The number of people employed in the economy", but also exceeds it in terms of the degree of impact on the endogenous parameter under study. A special contribution of the authors to the study of the topic is a modernized, regional-specific and patchwork statistical reporting of the meso-level, WEF algorithm, which provides the possibility of an empirical assessment of the index of inclusive economic development. The proposed methodological tools allowed not only to evaluate the indicator under study, but also to build the desired model in the format of searching for relationships "Inclusive growth-scientific and technological progress".
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2021-4
Safiullin M.R., Sharapov A.R., Elshin L.A. - Cluster analysis of the impact of blockchain technologies upon the development of the sectors of national economy pp. 15-28


Abstract: Prospects for the development of national economy in the context of integration of blockchain technologies into the system of economic processes testify necessitate elaboration of the methods and algorithms for formalized assessment of their impact upon the key parameters of socioeconomic dynamics. If within scientific-and-expert space, one may occasionally come across the works dedicated to separate aspects of this scientific methodological problem, the questions of the impact of blockchain technologies upon individual economic sectors are yet to be explored within the information-analytical and scientific space. The methods of empirical research of the impact of blockchain technologies upon the parameters of economic development currently did not find their consolidated solution, and are of fragmentary nature. This research is an attempt to strengthen the positions of formalized approaches towards examination of the articulated scientific and practical problem. The subject of this research is the economic relations of economic agents pertaining to implementation of blockchain technologies in the economic activity and formation of the new business models. The object is the types of economic activity of the national economy of the Russian Federation and their sensitivity to the diffusion of blockchain technologies. The article offers an algorithm for studying the dynamics of gross value added of the economic sectors of the Russian Federation through the prism of possible transformation of the key parameters of functionality of the financial and real sectors of the economy as a result of diffusion of blockchain technologies. Leaning on the advanced hypotheses, the author builds co-integration models for the indicated types of economic activity, which reveal the contribution of exogenous factors that are being adjusted under the pressure of infiltration of the distributed data storage technologies into the economic environment to the degree of incremental value added. This allows conducting cluster analysis of the economic sectors under review in accordance of their sensitivity to institutional changes caused by integration of the blockchain technologies into the economic environment.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2021-4
Burganov R.T., Gafarov M.R., Elshin L.A., Savushkin M.V., Artem'ev A.V. - Empirical assessment of the impact of digital transformation upon development of inclusive model of economic growth of the region pp. 105-118


Abstract: The subject of this research is the economic relations concerning the development of the model of inclusive development of the region based on transformations implemented in the field of digitalization of economic relations. The object of this research is the regions of the Volga Federal District. The authors dwell on the aspects and peculiarities of formalized assessment of the inclusive model of economic growth in the regions, taking into consideration the built integral indexes of digitalization of their socioeconomic systems, as well as aim to build integral indexes that characterize the key vectors and development trends of the analyzed categories with subsequent construction of models that assess the degree of their interrelation. Special attention is given to questions of comparative analysis of the regions of the Volga Federal District in accordance with the determined parameters and peculiarities of the developed model of inclusive economic growth. The main conclusions lie in the provisions, according to which regions with the higher level of inclusive development demonstrate better indicators of socioeconomic development. The authors’ special contribution consists in the construction of time series that assess the quantitative and qualitative parameters of digital transformation of the regions and the degree of development of their models of inclusive growth, which allows acquiring new results that would reveal the peculiarities and prospects of regional development in the new economic conditions. The author not only determined the degree of impact of digital transformation processes upon the prospects for the transition of the regional socioeconomic systems to a new, inclusive type of development, but also to formed the basis for further expansion of the approaches used in economic theory for studying the economic dynamics.
Psychologist, 2020-5
Svilina O.A., Elshin L.A. - Dynamic-procedural approach towards studying the athlete’s psychology of motivation pp. 12-20


Abstract: Motivation is the crucial factor of athlete’s success at any stage of their career. However, it is not a static quality. Motivation is a dynamic substance that is adjusted under the influence of multiple factors. Therefore, an extremely important scientific and methodological task consists in identification of these factors for the purpose of alignment and adaptation of athlete’s motivation to the relevant conditions of external and internal environment. Along with the traditional components, such as focus on the problem-solving, ego, etc., the paramount component of athlete’s motivation is commercial, which is especially relevant in the modern consumer society and affects virtually all segments of social life. The examination of this component, its comparison with other factors of athlete’s motivation is a critical theoretical and practical problem. This article is dedicates to solution of the aforementioned questions. Through the prism of theory of goal achievement, as well as leaning on the dynamic-procedural approach, the author suggests the adjusted to current realias view upon the study of athlete’s motivation, its management in the course of his career, transition from one phase of professional growth to another. The suggested model is based on the approach that identifies the system of athlete’s n accordance with the ratio of the three indicated components (motivation in the sphere of ego, problem-solving and psychological proclivity towards receiving material incentives from sports (career), improvement of social status). Each of them defines the level of motivation, and their combination is the integral level of athlete’s motivation.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2020-3
Elshin L.A., Grunichev A.S., Davydova A.A. - The impact of reputation capital of the region upon the quality of life of the population pp. 130-141


Abstract: The subject of this research consists in elaboration of the formalized assessment methods of the impact of reputation capital of the region upon the quality of life of the population. The object of this research is the Republic of Tatarstan. The authors substantiate the need for examining the nontraditional productive factors that determine the impact of economic development of the territories in the conditions of globalization of reproduction processes. It is underlined that at the current stage of development, it is important in the models of economic growth to take into account reputation potential of the region as one of the crucial generators of socioeconomic development in the context of digitalization of economic relations. Particular attention is turned to the questions of assessment of cumulative indexes of reputation of the territories, which form the foundation for formation of econometric models. Based on the proposed methods and approaches, the authors develop a model that in a formalized way allows determining the degree of impact of reputation capital of the region upon the parameters and dynamics of the income per capita as a paramount indicator of the quality of life. Application of the proposed methodological tools allowed substantiating the prospects, reasonableness and relevance of using with regards to the models of regional economic growth the exogenous factors, which characterize the level of development of nonmaterial factors of production. The obtained results prove the substantial correlation between the analyzed statistical arrays. It is established that augmentation reputation capital of the territories is an important task in the era of digitalization and globalization.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2018-3
Safiullin M.R., Elshin L.A., Abdukaeva A.A. - Development of multifactor forecasting model for promotion of the global cryptocurrency market pp. 151-161


Abstract: The subject of this research is the entirety of factors of the institutional and conjuncture order that determine the parameters of development of the cryptocurrency market. Special attention is given to the substantiation of parameters included into the economic mathematical model being developed, aimed at determining the relationship between the analyzed system of exogenous factors and endogenous indexes, which in this model is played by Bitcoin volume of market capitalization. The devised algorithm allowed forecasting market capitalization of cryptocurrency up until 2021 using the methods of scenario modeling. The methodology of this research relies on the instruments of economic and mathematical modeling of the studied entirety of factors, including the mechanisms of regressive analysis of the time statistical series, methods of generalization and grouping, as well as methods of scenario modeling. As the result of the completed assessments based on the instruments of economic modeling, the authors constructed a model that determines the statistically significant relations between the analyzed set of factors (of institutional and conjuncture order) and market capitalization of Bitcoin. This allowed to not only formulate a scientifically substantiated algorithm of modeling volatility on the cryptocurrency market, but also ensure capacity for developing scenario forecasting models of the dynamics of Bitcoin value for medium-term perspective in contrast to the currently used methods of technical analysis, which usually form the foundation for forecasting for only short-term perspective.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2018-2
Elshin L.A., Safiullin M.R., Abdukaeva A.A. - Development of the methodology of assessment of the economic growth of the regional economic systems on the basis of unified system of factors (on the example of the Volga Federal District) pp. 39-52


Abstract: Development of the forecasting models of economic growth, their improvement and adaptation to the transforming conditions of the institutional factors, require constant refinement of the methodological instruments. The key task here is the search for such system of factors that would simultaneously clarify the correction in the trends of economic dynamics and be unified for the entirety of the regional systems, which creates possibility for comparative analysis of the drivers of the economic growth. The object of this research is the unified factors of the economic growth of the Volga Federal District. The subject of this research is the modeling system of the parameters of economic dynamics on the basis of identification of exogenous factors unified for all regional systems. As a result of the conducted assessments, based on the instruments of econometric modeling, the authors determine the models of economic growth of the Volga Federal District based on uniformity of factors, which allowed, using the methods of cluster analysis, grouping them in accordance with the level of response and sensitivity to the changing parameters of the analyzed macro-indicators.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2018-2
Elshin L.A., Safiullin M.R., Abdukaeva A.A. - The Fourth Industrial Revolution in the Russian Federation: assessment of prospects based on structuring long-term cycles of cutting-edge development pp. 53-69


Abstract: The subject of this research is the mechanisms of structuring long-term economic cycles of cutting-edge development that form representation and forecasting assessment regarding the prospects and horizons of phase shifts of the ecosystem in the future. The object of this research is the evolution of the national economy in the context of modelling long-term economic cycles. Using modeling mechanism of long-term prospects of economic agents for the period of 1962-2000, the authors determine the trajectories of the phase shifts in the national economic system. This allowed not only identifying the character of cyclic development of national economy within the examined timeframe, but also scientifically substantiating the prospects and parameters of the arrival of the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution in the Russian Federation. It is proved that based on the developed methodology of structuring cycles of cutting-edge development and its trial on the system of statistical data of national economy over the recent 60 years, that the socioeconomic crisis of the 1990’s was caused not only by the institutional transformations, but also the fact that during this period the long-term economic cycle entered the decline phase, which transformed on the brink of the end of 2000’s and beginning of 2010’s into the inclination phase, allowing substantiation of the conclusion that the phase of long-term growth in Russian economy will not arrive before 2020-2025.
Trends and management, 2018-2
Elshin L.A., Safiullin M.R. - The role of the higher school in formation of the fourth industrial revolution in Russia pp. 41-54


Abstract: The subject of this research the analysis of compliance of the established system of higher education with the potential transition of the Russian economy into the phase of the fourth industrial revolution. The author pattern the long-term economic cycles of national economy, based on which conduct the analysis of cornerstone factors that generate its phase shifts. The implemented assessments, based on the methods of economic and mathematical modelling, allowed determining the prospects and time horizons in transition of the Russian economy onto the track of the fourth industrial revolution, carrying out a factor analysis and revealing the role of the higher school within the system of subsequent generating transformation. The authors were able to identify the focal problems in the Russian system of higher education from the perspective of the rates and quality of the development of Russian economy in accordance with the newly emerging global principles and mechanisms of economic growth. The scientific novelty lies in the formulated conceptual approach towards determining the key directions in development of the higher school, considering the global trends in transformation of the reproduction processes and anticipated phases of economic transformations in the national economic system. In conclusion, it is argued that the development of scientific research potential within the modern Russian economy explicitly demonstrates the change in descending trends during the period from 1996 to 2002.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2017-3
Safiullin M.R., Elshin L.A., Abdukaeva A.A. - Particularities of Innovative and Technological Development of Russia as Part of Higher School Development Trends pp. 1-11


Abstract: The object of the research is the innovative and technological development of the national economy within transformations of the higher school. The subject of the research is the mechanisms and  methods of state regulation that form the basis of an efficient, adapted to current economic conditions, innovative and technological development of the national economy. The authors of the article pay special attention to the role of the higher school in teh process of creating advanced manufacturing technologies, define the key issues and development trends that encourage innovative development of the economic system under the conditions of changing environment. Based on the methods of the econometric analysis, the authors analyze the key factors that influence the parameters of the innovative and technological development of Russia including the number of higher education establishments, the number of issued patents, attraction of foreign investments in research and development, funding researches from the federal budget, the number of staff who conduct research and development, the number of establishments that conduct research and development. The main result of the research is the scientifically grounded development tools used by the higher school of Russia that encourage and intensify mechanisms of innovative and technological development of the national economy. The main contribution of the author to the topic is that the author conducts economic mathematical calculations proving the need for Russian Federation universities to cooperate under the conditions of the limited access to foreign investments in national research and development. 
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2017-2
Elshin L.A. - Methodical Approaches to Multilevel Assessment of Business Activity and its Influence on Industrial Development of Regional Economic Systems (the Case Study of the Republic of Tatarstan) pp. 54-63


Abstract: Analysis of regions' business activity is an important research issue that hasn't been solved and still requires a certain commonly accepted approach. The other issue which is also important both practically and theoretically is the selection of methods aimed at identifying the influence of regions' business activity on development indicators of certain economic sectors. Solution of these issues is the aim of the present research. The object of the research is region's business activity (based on the example of the Republic of Tatarstan) and its influence on the development of regional economic systems. The subject of the research involves methods of defining and modeling business activity of the region as well as assessing its impact on development indicators of separate types of economic activity. The author examines such aspects of the topic as identification of factors that develop parameters of regional economic systems' business activity, and analysis of intraregional particularities that define the change in index pathways of business activity that express changes in expectations of economic agents. The author pays special attention to the issues of economic and mathematical modelling to assess the impact of cyclically generated trends of region's business activity on development pathways of certain industries in a region.  The research method used by the author is based on using tools of the cross-correlation analysis of the main systematically important factors influencing the process of assessing region's business activity as well as the tools of the statistical analysis and other special methods promoting determination and search for interrelations between the studied statistical ranks. The novelty of the research is caused by the fact that the author develops a conceptual approach to identifying parameters of business activity based on modelling expectations of economic agents and using methods of the cross-correlation analysis. The author's contribution to the topic is that he has developed methodical approaches to determining and describing interrelations of separate types of economic activity of the region with the parameters of business activity formed at the regional level.
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2016-4
Elshin L.A., Prygunova M.I. - Expectations and Their Influence on Parameters of Economic Cyclic Development pp. 94-102


Abstract: The subject of the research is the combinatin of factors defining parameters of expectations of economic agents generating, first of all, phase shifts of economic cycles. The authors examine the structure of factors of the institutional and conjunctural order, and their influence on priority development cycles representing trends of short-, medium- and long-term expectations of economic entities. Special attention is paid to the questions of evaluating the influence of the aforesaid set of factors on the horizons of phase shifts inside economic cycles (based on the example of the Russian Federation economy). The given rsearch is based on the implementation of taxonomic analysis methods which most of all create the credibility of assessment. Results of the analysis allow to define the nature of the cyclic development of the Russian Federation economy in 1996 - 2015 with a preceding lag indicator of 1-2 years which allows to develop an important prognostic potential of the model and to predict turning points of each cycle depending on the contents of factors and sizes of their lag indic ators. 
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2016-4
Elshin L.A., Gayazov Z.F., Prygunova M.I. - Methodological Approaches to Scenario Forecastign of the System of Public Catering in Russian Regions pp. 121-131


Abstract: The subject of the research is a set of factors defining unique parameters of the development of regional public catering systems. The sector of public catering plays an important role in Russia's population employment just like in all developed countries (the share of people employed in the public catering sector reaches 0.92% of the total number of employed people). It is also important for the development of small and medium businesses (the share of business entities working in the sphere of public catering is 1.27% of the total number of business enterprises), and tourist sphere. The authors of the article emphasize the need for the differentiated approach to analyzing regional development strategies of the aforesaid economic sector. Based on that, the authors present results of the cluster analysis which allows to divide Russian Federation regions into groups depending on the key factors of the public catering development. The authors' contributoin to the topic is that they offer their own algorithm for identifying key areas in accordance with the defined peculiarities of the regional development. Quite interesting (from the research point of view) is a discovedred fact that for a number of regions referred to clusters 'Leaders', 'Outsiders' and 'Prospective Leaders', the dynamics of investments into the main capital in the sphere of public catering did not have a considerable influence on the dynamics of the turnover in the aforesaid economic sector. This creates a research basis for studying alternative factors of increasing the turnover. 
Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2015-4
Elshin L.A., Prygunova M.I. - Evaluation and Prospects for the Development of the Investment Potential of Russia's Chemical Industry: Structure-Logical Analysis pp. 11-33


Abstract: Object of research are features and regularities of formation of foreign investments in chemical industry. As object of research the chemical industry of the Russian Federation in general and its separate types of economic activity acts. Authors in detail consider such aspects of a subject as dependence between the level of specialization of chemical industry of the region and its investment appeal, and on this basis critical values of the indicators of specialization attractive to growth of investment activity from foreign investors come to light.The special attention is paid to questions of the analysis of volatility of chemical production Russian Federation as a result of change of external and internal tactical factors, for definition of a complex assessment of investment appeal of the analyzed economy sector. The methodology of research is based on use of tools of mathematical statistics, and also methods of the structural and logical analysis defining interrelations and interdependence between the studied phenomena. The main conclusion of the conducted research is justification of a hypothesis of inverse relationship of level of specialization of capital-intensive productions of chemical industry and level of the attracted foreign investments. Special contribution of authors is development of methodological approaches to studying and justification of the main mechanisms of an intensification of investment activity from foreign agents. Novelty of research consists in justification of need of carrying out the structural transformations directed on growth of a share of the productions of chemical industry generating the high level of a value added. These sectors of chemical production are capable to create the favorable conditions of attraction of investments directed on growth of global competitiveness of products. Production with the low level of repartition doesn't promote the motivational growth of optimization of economic processes owing to their high competitiveness in the world markets in view of limitation of resources and developments of investment activity don't create progressive conditions.
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