DOI: 10.25136/2409-7802.2023.2.43657

Abstract: The subject of this article is the issue of using additive regression models to predict financial indicators at the macro level. At the same time, special attention is paid to the impact of the economy monetization on the possibility of attracting funding for global development projects (megaprojects). It is shown that the main drawback of the most common forecasting models today is their situation-dependent nature. This, in turn, creates difficulties with the initial setup of the models and the subsequent interpretation of the results obtained, limiting the scope of the models, making the use of this toolkit difficult for financial professionals who do not have special mathematical training. With the help of modeling, forecast values of the gross domestic product (GDP) and money supply (M2) for the short-term time obtained, on the basis of which the expected value of the level of the economy monetization was calculated. Based on a predictive assessment of the level of monetization, it is shown that at the moment the country has a limited potential for increasing domestic debt, which, in the conditions of closing access to international capital markets and partial blocking of state reserves, can become a factor in disrupting the financing of megaprojects for the economy structural modernization. Directions for improving the monetary policy aimed at correcting this situation and increasing domestic investment activity are proposed.

DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2017.2.19899

Abstract: The subject of this research is the influence of the aggravated international situation and crisis economic phenomena upon the energy complex of the Russian Federation. On one hand, there had emerged a number of new threats to the energy security of the Russian Federation, which carry foreign policy and foreign economic character. On the other hand, the continuous worsening of technical state of the equipment and use of the outdated technologies makes the Russian energy companies inefficient and non-competitive in the international market, as well as elevate the social tension in the country. The author examines the threats to Russia’s energy security emerged due to the various external (geopolitical, macroeconomic, conjuncture, etc.) and internal (state and functionality of the energy sector) factors. The work demonstrates that the problem of energy security must be viewed in the context of ensuring national security to the Russian Federation. The author suggests introducing into the National Security Strategy an additional category of “energy aspects of national security”. The article also underlines the importance of measures aimed at restoration and development of the national production of energy technologies, increase of economic efficiency and functionality of the energy complex, as well as formulation of the approaches towards financing of energy complex in Russia under the conditions of the limited capital market.